MCY Mercury NZ ( MRP Mighty River Power)

[horus1]

I saved 40% on my energy bill by going to Flick including the recent high spot prices. That is the rip of margins being made by the big generators. The mistake made was not seperating the retail from the generation in 1996.Margins like that cannot last

[fish]

I saved 40% on my energy bill by going to Flick including the recent high spot prices. That is the rip of margins being made by the big generators. The mistake made was not seperating the retail from the generation in 1996.Margins like that cannot last

sounds good -was that from you total power bill ?
Did you take steps to minimise the high winter spot prices?
Mercury are offering 22% off for Farmland card holders so i was considering swapping to them-fixed for 2 years.Will now consider flick but dont know if i want to be exposed to risk of nigh spot prices

[Jantar]

.... The mistake made was not seperating the retail from the generation in 1996.Margins like that cannot last

Retail and generation were seperated out in 1996. It was the later change after the 1999 split of ECNZ into Meridian, Genesis and Mighty river that allowed generators to once again participate in retailing.

However I do agree with regarding Flick's pricing model. There are big savings to be made for those who don't mind a fluctuating power bill. Perhaps not so good for those on a fixed income.

[horus1]

I saved 20% of total bill. I did not take steps to minimise but we run the dishwasher and washing machine at night , about 8-9 pm. Spot prices are very low at night , Dont go to the big retailer /generators you only have to look at the profits they make and almost all of it is from small consumers. High spot prices occur about 1 in 7 years . I was near the top of the electricity industry for 15 years.

[King1212]

to save power bill:
1. use a wood to cook.
2. use a candle at night.
3. Wear extra cloths during winter time.
4. Remove all tv, fridge, gadget and etc

[Fatboyj]

Wouldn't you be happy living in a cave in central Afghanistan?

[couta1]

Looks like the market is waking up to the nice big 13.8c fully imputed divvy going Ex on the 13th. Got my fill at $3.42 average (Actually you can't have too many, so probably only a partial fill)

[Snoopy]

6/ Tiwai Smelter, along with the parent company's Australian aluminium manufacturing assets are for sale. Tiwai doesn't have the power supply issues that Australia has. It looks economic for now, but it could set power industry earnings back for 5-10 years if it did close. My feeling is that Tiwai won't close. But that doesn't mean there is no risk of it closing. And that smaller chance of closing is still a risk that you should build into your investment equation.

Have been perusing the FY2017 annual report, and I was particularly interested in the comments on p59 relating to Tiwai Point:

"The eventual closure of the Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter, although in our view unlikely in the short term, remains a risk to the industry. When this happens Mercury believes it is relatively best placed out of all the large electricity generators in New Zealand due to our station locations and fuel mix. While wholesale electricity prices would be expected to drop for a period of time, we believe our 39% share of the Auckland retail market, proximate North Island generation locations and balanced approach to risk management will differentiate us from our peers."

This quote carries the most negative tone I have seen from a gentailer CEO yet on the future of Tiwai. It looks like Mercury truly believe that Tiwai point is a gonner, albeit not within the next 2-3 years. It is in stark contrast to Mark Binns (retiring CEO of Meridian) recent comments about not losing any sleep any more over the prospect of Tiwai closing.

This Tiwai issue is pertinent to the AR2017 p46 discussion relating to "Security of Supply."

The margin sought across all generators seems to be a band which sits 14-16% in excess of peak winter demand. Everything looks fine over FY2018. A small yellow bar, indicating a shortfall, is there in FY2019. But this means that peak supply will still be 13.5% above the winter peak. So maybe there is no reason to panic? The margin above the winter peak shrinks to just 10% in 2022. Some might still see that as acceptable. But come 2023 the margin shrinks to just 1% above the average winter peak. On this bar a light yellow section, indicating 'possible generation' appears labelled 'Huntly Rankine Units 500MW.' This looks to me as though the two remaining Huntly Rankine units are due to be shut down in 2022. But if they were not shut down, then the shortfall would not be as great. It almost looks as though the two Huntly Rankine units are expected to carry on past 2022 as the most economical energy generation option to 'bridge the gap'. The Huntly Rankine units are, of course, run by the opposition, 'Genesis Energy'. But that graph looks like a forecast of new generation capacity of around 300MW, combined with the extension of the life of the Huntly Rankine Units being the solution to NZ's Energy supply problems of 2023. How Mercury can assume this, given they do not have any ownership rights over Huntly, I don't understand. I also see no 'jump' in the bar graph that goes out to 2026 that might indicate the closure of Tiwai has been modelled. Are Mercury just scaremongering, predicting the end of the Tiwai smelter?

Is there another interpretation of the information that Mercury has presented here?

SNOOPY

[fish]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;683433]Have been perusing the FY2017 annual report, and I was particularly interested in the comments on p59 relating to Tiwai Point:

"The eventual closure of the Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter, although in our view unlikely in the short term, remains a risk to the industry. When this happens Mercury believes it is relatively best placed out of all the large electricity generators in New Zealand due to our station locations and fuel mix. While wholesale electricity prices would be expected to drop for a period of time, we believe our 39% share of the Auckland retail market, proximate North Island generation locations and balanced approach to risk management will differentiate us from our peers."

This quote carries the most negative tone I have seen from a gentailer CEO yet. It looks like Mercury truly believe that Tiwai point is a gonner, albeit not within the next 2-3 years. It is in stark contrast to Mark Binns (retiring CEO of Meridian) recent comments about not losing any sleep any more over the prospect of Tiwai closing any more.

This Tiwai issue is pertinent to the p46 discussion relating to "Security of Supply." The margin sought across all generators seems to be a band which sits 14-16% in excess of peak winter demand. Everything looks fine over FY2018. A small yellow bar, indicating a shortfall, is there in FY2019. But this means that peak supply will still be 13.5% above the winter peak. So maybe there is no reason to panic? The margin above the winter peak shrinks to just 10% in 2022. Some might still see that as acceptable. But come 2023 the margin shrinks to just 1% above the average winter peak. On this bar a light yellow section appears labelled 'Huntly Rankine Units 500MW.' This looks to me as though the two remaining Huntly Rankine units are due to be shut down in 2022. But if they were not shut down then the shortfall would not be as great. It almost looks as though the two Huntly Rankine units are expected to carry on past 2022 as the most economical energy generation option. The Huntly Rankine units are of course run by the opposition, 'Genesis Energy'. But that graph looks like a forecast of new generation capacity of around 300MW, combined with the extension of the life of the Huntly Rankine Units as the solution to NZs Energy supply problem.

Is there another interpretation of the information that Mercury has presented here?

yes-they dont want anyone else to build new generation
In contrast Mark Binns has no reason to say anything but the truth-and he was in a position to know

[RTM]

It is in stark contrast to Mark Binns (retiring CEO of Meridian) recent comments about not losing any sleep any more over the prospect of Tiwai closing.


Is there another interpretation of the information that Mercury has presented here?

SNOOPY

Maybe it is because he is retiring and no longer needs to worry about it ?