GFC 2? No; Meltdown2014

[noodles]

stop trying to use us to validate the skewed sitauation in your brain.

Moosie, this is a bit harsh. I would argue that most threads on this forum a full of people trying to use it to validate a skewed opinion of a stock.

More to the point, his comments are not without merit. It is a debate to be had. No one seems to be arguing the other way. It is mostly personal attacks.

[BIRMANBOY]

Not harsh at all...they are rants...there is no attempt to provide answers, alternatives or solutions. Invitations to contribute same are ignored. It therefore should be called a rant. As you say some of the comments have merit....but unfortunately no-one (including L9F) has any answers so its all a bit of a self absorbed waste of time.

Moosie, this is a bit harsh. I would argue that most threads on this forum a full of people trying to use it to validate a skewed opinion of a stock.

More to the point, his comments are not without merit. It is a debate to be had. No one seems to be arguing the other way. It is mostly personal attacks.

[noodles]

Not harsh at all...they are rants...there is no attempt to provide answers, alternatives or solutions. Invitations to contribute same are ignored. It therefore should be called a rant. As you say some of the comments have merit....but unfortunately no-one (including L9F) has any answers so its all a bit of a self absorbed waste of time.

On post 14, i mentioned that i use put options as a solution to a potential gfc2. Does it make me paranoid? Do you insure your house?

[Logen Ninefingers]

I accept that my initial posts were using sensationalist language, and probably were not creating the right footing for a decent debate. They were just a bunch of "this outcome is going to happen" type posts.

I'd say that I haven't provided any charts, but I have provided 'facts'......numbers etc......that no one is really disputing. No one has challenged me on the real US umemployment rate - the one that includes the 'long term discouraged' and 'short term discouraged' (using their US designations). Everyone knows that the Fed is buying $85 Billion per month is US bonds. No one in the thread has put a date on when they expect tapering to end, or indeed if it will end. Past instances of sustained 'money printing' have lead to hyper-inflation & massive currency devaluations. I guess the USD being the worlds bench-mark currency is a big complicating factor in the mix....but could QE back-fire on the USD and the US economy in general?
Is the US share-market in a bubble, sustained by stimulus and abnormal corporate profits? Or are the current highs normal and sustainable, and any correction will not be in the realm of a 'crash'?
Is the US economic recovery broad-based & their middle class recovering nicely, or are a small number of people benefiting and the structural problems getting worse?

I'm looking at the numbers & current events, and then adding historical context, and the mix of what I'm seeing does not look healthy.

To me, it's a little similar to how events unfolded prior to GFC1. GFC1 did not happen overnight. Firstly I started to read stories about small regional US banks going under, and then the situation with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae began to make disturbing reading. I remember discussing the situation with my colleague Jack - a conspiracy nut, which I'm not - but someone who was always immersed in current events because he was a conspiracy nut. We used to say how ugly it was getting in the States because we were invariably looking at the same sort of stuff.
It was like someone who looks outwardly healthy but you hear their kidneys have shut down, then their liver is not working properly. It all adds up and compounds and you can see the outcome won't be good.
We'd have these conversations in the office and the boss would look at us a bit non-plussed, like "you idiots, this is the U S of A you are talking about".
Is that how everyone feels now as well....that the US is invulnerable and will always come through no matter what? The ol' red white & blue always triumphs in the end?
Even today, there is a sense of unreality about those days, about how close the financial system came to armageddon.
So would / should we really be surprised if those extraordinary and momentous events were to have a sequel, or next phase? Or is it now "business as normal"....everythings been fixed and resolved. 'Move along, nothing to see here'.

Now I'm not saying me and Jack predicted the GFC, I'm just saying we could see some things happening that didn't look good. There are things happening in the States now that are disquieting and disturbing, and not just one thing - a number of things. And it's being masked by the soaring stock-market and QE, which are at the same time potentially part of the problem.

Do I need to start preparing for doomsday or take a hike in the mountains? Well that's kind of my business. But it shouldn't be that I / we can't comment on what is going on. There's no hysteria here.