Playing the Quarterly Changes to the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index Game

**Agrarinvestor** · 17-12-2013, 05:11 AM

Hi ,

today my favorite Stock, CGA PE of 2, far beneath net book value, has an announcement of being added in these Index:
NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/quarte...130500272.html

but now look what had happens to the candidates 2 quarters ago:

http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-...1-904386.html#

We CGA Investors have seen a lot of good news over the last months. CGA has was rewarded as :

China Green Agriculture Listed as Asia's 200 Best Under A Billion by Forbes Asia
China Green Agriculture Inc. Announced that its Subsidiary Received Grade A Rating from Subsidiary's Tax Agency

**Agrarinvestor** · 17-12-2013, 09:54 AM

All candidates that were added 2 Quarter ago to the index have done well. Bita has tripled to a pike of 35 and
Jaso has doubled also HGSH. If we conside that CGA has a P/E of 2, ...
Please help me to understand CGA.

	Added to Golden Dragon Index on Mar 18th.
Code	13.3.13	19.3.2013	16.12.13	Peak	P/E (KGV)	52 weeks
BITA	8,97	29434	28.22	35,04	35	6,14-35,04
CBPO	25,47	28,93	29,83	31,15	16	13,07-31,15
HGSH	5,56	6,97	5,95	12,94	18	2,78-12,94
JASO	4,55	4,38	8,45	12,80	negative	3,37-12,80
LDK	1,39	1,27	1,36	2,32	negative	0,93-2,32
MY	1,36	1,42	2,05	3,52	negative	1,13-3,52

	Removed from Index on Mar 18th.
ACH	10,15	9,93	8,62	13,29	negative	7,25-13,29
CO	2,73	2,87	3,98	4,6	17	2,54-4,6
KNDI	3,89	3,74	8,02	9,20	negative	3,37-9,20
elong	15,55	14,70	18,20	23,81	negative	12,69-23,81
SCR	9,03	8,95	9,56	9,56	7,7	7,25-9,77
	Removed because of Merger on Mar 18th.
ADY					negative	7,4$
FMCN					10	5,5$



	Added to Golden Dragon Index on Dec 23th.
	16.12 open	23.12
CGA	3,52				2,3
BONA	5.62				negative
CNIT	6,49				negative
CREG	3,92				17
CXDC	4,88				3,26
DL	20				48,7
JST	6.5				6,6
KGJI	1,67				3,79
elong	18				negative

**Agrarinvestor** · 23-12-2013, 10:14 PM

Hi ,
i made some research for the 9 new candidates that will be added to the Index on december 23.th
My favorites are CGA, CXDC and JST.

	Added to Golden Dragon Index on Mar 18th.
Code	13.3.13	19.3.2013	16.12.13	Peak	P/E (KGV)	52 weeks
BITA	8,97	29434	28.22	35,04	35	6,14-35,04
CBPO	25,47	28,93	29,83	31,15	16	13,07-31,15
HGSH	5,56	6,97	5,95	12,94	18	2,78-12,94
JASO	4,55	4,38	8,45	12,80	negative	3,37-12,80
LDK	1,39	1,27	1,36	2,32	negative	0,93-2,32
MY	1,36	1,42	2,05	3,52	negative	1,13-3,52
	Added to Golden Dragon Index on Jul 24.th
	14.6	24.6	17.12		P/E (KGV)
BKMU	5,71	5,81	6.83	7,14	31	4,05-7,14
BPOP	29,10	28,78	28	34	5,6	27,73-28.34
CBF	17.94	18,61	22,47	23,73	38	22,11-22.53
CHFN	10	9.95	10,83	11,82	36	8-11,82
FDEF	23,59	22,17	25,52	28,46	11,55	17,24-28,46
FLIC	23,59	22,17	25,52	28,46	11,55	17-28,46
HTBI	16,53	15,88	16	17	28,5	12,9-17
LBAI	10	9,9	11,95	12,68	16	9,02-12,68
NFBK	11,73	11,72	12,81	13,15	40	10,67-13,15
OCFC	14,57	14,45	17,72	18,88	16	12,57-18,88



	Added to Golden Dragon Index on Dec 23th.

	CGA	BONA	CNIT	CREG	CXDC	DL	JST	KGJI	elong
P/E (TTM)	2,33	negative	negative	28,42	4,33	82	9,21	3,96	na
Price to Bookvalue (MRQ)	0,38	1,78	2,04	1,49	0,82	12,38	0,59	0,57	2,08
Price to tabgible Bookvalue (MRQ)	0,45	21	5,05	1,8	0,64	14,92	0,69	0,57	2,19
EPS(MRQ) vs Qtr 1 Yr ago	23,61	252	na	153	-11,03	97	84,3	10,54	-575
EPS -5Yr. Growth Rate	24,95	na	na	-6,26	-36	6	-3,65	na	na

Margen
Gross Margin (TTM)	36,6	35,8	20,75	26,2	20,37	53	33	4,4	68
Operating Margin (TTM)	25,54	-1,85	-124	65 ?	15,19	16	6,74	3,85	-14
Net Profit Margin (TTM)	20,64	-2,02	-130	24,2	11,03	13,4	6,44	2,59	-10,62

**Agrarinvestor** · 08-01-2014, 07:53 AM

I beated the Index at factor 5, so far, within 3 Weeks. And the Golden Dragon Index has a good performance! 2013 up 55%.

If you have concentrated on the 4 cheapest stocks (P/E) basis) you had won in average 11% in within 3 weeks !

There is still room for improvement if you can agree that a stock below P/E of 5 is cheap.

	Added to Golden Dragon Index on Dec 23th.
	16.12.2013	6.1.2014	Increase %		Price to Book (mrq)
CGA	3,52	3,82	8,5		2,3
BONA	5.62	6,33	12		negative
CNIT	6,49	6,96	7,2		negative
CREG	3,92	3,36	-14		17
CXDC	4,88	5,00	2,4		3,26
DL	20	17,11	-14		48,7
JST	6.5	8,34	28		6,6
KGJI	1,67	1,78	6,5		3,79
elong	18	19,65	9		negative
HXC Index Nasdaq Golden Dragon	6894	7011	117	1,016

**Hoop** · 08-01-2014, 08:30 AM

Hi Agrainvestor.
I've noticed that no-one has replied to your thread yet.
It may seem like you are talking to yourself but rest assured I guarantee you have at one least reader out of the 930 views that finds your thread very worthwhile and interesting

..
Thanks for the postings to date
Hoop

**Agrarinvestor** · 09-01-2014, 09:14 AM

Thank you so much.

I am used to talking to myself. Do you have an idea how i can attract agrar specialist that have knowledge about the fertilizer market ? I beleave CGA is a livetime opportunity.
As i am still learning all these dependencies in fertilizers and agriculture, there is a problem with my english skill. Writing and reading is ok, but speaking. It is very difficult for me, as a non native to understand
a chinese CFO who is talking english.
CGA:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...stock-on-earth

**Valuegrowth** · 12-02-2014, 10:46 PM

Hello Agrarinvestor it looks like you are following Agri sector. Can we expect fertilizer business to improve? At the moment if I am correct Fertilizer companies are facing an uncertain environment due to lower prices for potash and other ingredients. We can reasonably expect fertilizer business to improve in the long run. Am I right?

**Agrarinvestor** · 13-02-2014, 09:07 PM

Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER

Hello Agrarinvestor it looks like you are following Agri sector. Can we expect fertilizer business to improve? At the moment if I am correct Fertilizer companies are facing an uncertain environment due to lower prices for potash and other ingredients. We can reasonably expect fertilizer business to improve in the long run. Am I right?

Hi Marketwinner,
experts are thinking that the potash market will recover at the end of 2014. Market Realist is always a good source for invormation:
http://marketrealist.com/2013/11/mos...very-end-2014/

I am looking at least once a week at sunsirs, for checking the development of prices for fertilizer and products like Gas and Coal what you need during the process of manufacturing. On the right side you find other chemicals and fertilizers:
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-759.html

In my opinion is China the region that will produce future fertilizer giants. China is the largest market. Theire fertilizer players are undervalued and were targets of short selling. But they are difficult to predict.
My favorite play is CGA, they have just started an expensive marketing and growth strategie and sacfrificed a lot of cash for that. CFO has sold 420k shares. I have no idea, why. Maybe he is on the leave, or building a villa, i don't know. As i said, it is all difficult to predict. But i have learned, if something is difficult it can be a huge reward if you solved the mystery.

http://www.cgagri.com/IR/cgagri/CHINAGREENAGRICULTUREINC.pdf

**Valuegrowth** · 13-02-2014, 11:12 PM

Originally Posted by Agrarinvestor

Hi Marketwinner,
experts are thinking that the potash market will recover at the end of 2014. Market Realist is always a good source for invormation:
http://marketrealist.com/2013/11/mos...very-end-2014/

I am looking at least once a week at sunsirs, for checking the development of prices for fertilizer and products like Gas and Coal what you need during the process of manufacturing. On the right side you find other chemicals and fertilizers:
http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-759.html

In my opinion is China the region that will produce future fertilizer giants. China is the largest market. Theire fertilizer players are undervalued and were targets of short selling. But they are difficult to predict.
My favorite play is CGA, they have just started an expensive marketing and growth strategie and sacfrificed a lot of cash for that. CFO has sold 420k shares. I have no idea, why. Maybe he is on the leave, or building a villa, i don't know. As i said, it is all difficult to predict. But i have learned, if something is difficult it can be a huge reward if you solved the mystery.

http://www.cgagri.com/IR/cgagri/CHINAGREENAGRICULTUREINC.pdf

Thank you for the links. Market, sector, stock, commodity or currencies never stay in the same place. Fertilizer too could act according to their industry cycle.

**Agrarinvestor** · 14-02-2014, 02:00 AM

Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER

Thank you for the links. Market, sector, stock, commodity or currencies never stay in the same place. Fertilizer too could act according to their industry cycle.

Market, sector, stock, commodity or currencies never stay in the same place

That is exactly my recommendation. I have all my money in Germany, live insurrance policies, company pension, pension from the government, my house, most of my savings is in Euro. And the Euro is as sick as the US Dollar.