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  1. #1
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    Angry AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

    After living (and saving) in Oz for several years I've just moved back to NZ to discover that the $AUD it at a FIVE YEAR low against the $NZD. Talk about timing... geez.

    I really don't know what to do. I can either bite the bullet and convert now, wait it out for a year or so, or something else? The one good thing is that apart from money for a car and initial setup, I don't need the the bulk of the funds for the foreseeable future.

    What would you do? Could we be going to parity?

    Cheers

  2. #2
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    I feel for you!When I returned to NZ from Aus in "93, to eventually set up my own business, I was fortunate to have the highest x-rate, I think, up to now. NZ was fighting its way out of low economic growth from the 87 crash. Aus recovered a bit quicker hence the strong exchange rate. Possibly the shoe is on the other foot this time around.
    History would indicate this situation will not last but for how long will Aus economy take to kick off? Or how long before NZ shoots itself in the foot? Labour Govt in power?
    If you have enough money here how long are you prepared to wait?
    If you waited and it went to parity would that stop you doing something here? Buying property, increase business expansion? This, to me, is the most important question.
    If you brought your money over and invested it could you make more than leaving it in Aus?
    You can always drip feed small amounts to cover increases but not take a major hit on the conversion rate. Do you intend to go to Aus for holidays where some money left there would make it easier.?
    I am sure there will be lots of people to enlighten you on this site and good luck with adapting back to NZ life.

  3. #3
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    Invest it in Australia. Bigger market, more options

  4. #4
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    I noticed we're in a very similar pattern to what happened in 2000. Not sure if history repeats, but could be something to check out?
    (sharp drop of AUS followed by long bullish channel)

    So IF technical analysis is anything to go by and the patterns are similar - you'd be holding for a long time to get back to the values it was in 2011. Maybe follow Peats advice and invest in Aus?

    AUDNZD.JPG
    Last edited by mrjeems; 17-12-2013 at 04:08 PM.

  5. #5
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    Thank you for the all the advice. I am leaving everything in Australia for now... down into the 1.05's now... I haven't converted yet so it's just on paper, but still this is killing me! Especially since I am back in NZ for good.

  6. #6
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    Tell me about it, i get paid in AUD working for Aussie firm and not practically taking a large pay cut due to exchange rate which might go to 98 high.

  7. #7
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blueswan View Post
    Tell me about it, i get paid in AUD working for Aussie firm and not practically taking a large pay cut due to exchange rate which might go to 98 high.
    Tell me about it #2-- company I work for exports mostly to Aus got a 10% cut in pay likely to have another one soon ...damn National Gov /Milk solids doing to well ...attracting overseas $$$ ....yes great time to invest NZD into the ASX...
    Last edited by JBmurc; 16-01-2014 at 02:05 PM.
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  8. #8
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    If you trade ASX shares and you had a 20% profit YOY, it will just be eaten up by this depreciation of AUD to NZD once you convert back to Kiwi. It made sense to hedge your currency exposure way back. Ah hind sight???

  9. #9
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    Stand back and ask yourself if it is more likely this strong $Kiwi (against $A) will continue or fluctuate back.
    The $K pros- maybe interest rate increase--economy seems to be growing ATM
    The cons-when ever something scarey happens(like Greece or Cyprus) It knocks the $Kiwi worse than other currencies as its considered more risky

    Im banking that the kiwi$ will drop on some bad economic news at some stage,but forex is hard to predict

  10. #10
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Auckland house market, Christchurch rebuild and still strong dairy exports (particularly to China) are all pointing to economic strengthening here in NZ and an interest rate hike sooner than Australia's (which is more likely to be cut further before it rises). Parity is not far off IMO.

    Today's Australian Employment Change statistic of negative 22.6k against an expected increase of 7.5k does not bode well for the Aussie economy.

    NZ CPI figure on 21 Jan and interest rate decision on 30 Jan will also be a factor.

    BC
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

  11. #11
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    Yes this is very painful. I've had most if not all of my profits eaten up by the weakening AUD. Not happy!

  12. #12
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    I agree SKID that our economy is quite small that one bad news can knock Kiwi hard just like the mad cow scare a few years back that knock 100 pts off just like that. But based on outlook soft commodities looks rosier than hard commodities so NZ will have an upward bias with Dairy prices going up. Although another Fonterra scare can just derail everything. But looking at the chart we might see NZDAUD scale new highs in the near term.

    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    Stand back and ask yourself if it is more likely this strong $Kiwi (against $A) will continue or fluctuate back.
    The $K pros- maybe interest rate increase--economy seems to be growing ATM
    The cons-when ever something scarey happens(like Greece or Cyprus) It knocks the $Kiwi worse than other currencies as its considered more risky

    Im banking that the kiwi$ will drop on some bad economic news at some stage,but forex is hard to predict

  13. #13
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    [QUOTE= But based on outlook soft commodities looks rosier than hard commodities so NZ will have an upward bias with Dairy prices going up. Although another Fonterra scare can just derail everything. But looking at the chart we might see NZDAUD scale new highs in the near term.[/QUOTE]

    I read somewhere recently that globally dairy production is recovering (was bad weather etc) and this will put a downwards pressure on Dairy prices so if so we may be near a top right now.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    I read somewhere recently that globally dairy production is recovering (was bad weather etc) and this will put a downwards pressure on Dairy prices so if so we may be near a top right now.
    JT - I hope so ! I don't like seeing investment gains eroded by forex

  15. #15
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    Attachment 5628
    Um yeh, I been building up shorts on this cross
    As per the purple down arrows

    Moosie
    The article you posted a link to doesnt reference the aud/NZD but the aud/usd
    Last edited by peat; 27-03-2014 at 08:51 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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