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04-12-2014, 08:36 PM
#101
Here's a good break down on NZ exports (wow dairy is massive!)
Exports - Top 20 commodities
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Commodity NZ$ Millions Year end
Milk powder, butter, and cheese 13,590 31-Dec-13
Meat and edible offal 5,276 31-Dec-13
Logs, wood, and wood articles 3,858 31-Dec-13
Crude oil 1,727 31-Dec-13
Machinery 1,527 31-Dec-13
Beverages 1,491 31-Dec-13
Fruits and nuts 1,483 31-Dec-13
Fish 1,327 31-Dec-13
Aluminoids, starches and glues 1,253 31-Dec-13
Electrical machinery and equipment 1,066 31-Dec-13
Cereal preparations 973 31-Dec-13
Aluminium 972 31-Dec-13
Pearls, precious stones, and metals 836 31-Dec-13
Wool 756 31-Dec-13
Optical, medical, and measuring equipment 745 31-Dec-13
Miscellaneous edible preparations 738 31-Dec-13
Wool pulp 620 31-Dec-13
Hides, skins and leather 597 31-Dec-13
Iron and steel 575 31-Dec-13
Paper products 479 31-Dec-13
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04-12-2014, 08:46 PM
#102
Apparently Iron Ore makes up 22% of Australian exports
Attachment 6560
Apparently dairy makes up 24% for NZ
Attachment 6561
Last edited by BFG; 04-12-2014 at 08:55 PM.
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04-12-2014, 08:49 PM
#103
Originally Posted by BFG
Probably more like 10 % now ........
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04-12-2014, 08:57 PM
#104
Originally Posted by stoploss
Probably more like 10 % now ........
Which commodity are we betting recovers first eh?
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04-12-2014, 09:05 PM
#105
There is little (almost non-existent) correlation between annual changes in the ANZ Dairy Product Price Index and annual changes in the NZD/AUD (correlation coefficient of 0.09)
And counter intuitively there is no correlation between changes in that same index and GDP
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04-12-2014, 09:07 PM
#106
Originally Posted by winner69
There is little (almost non-existent) correlation between annual changes in the ANZ Dairy Product Price Index and annual changes in the NZD/AUD (correlation coefficient of 0.09)
And counter intuitively there is no correlation between changes in that same index and GDP
Why is it that I have noted large drops over the past few months when GDT auction negative results are announced early mornings here then Winner?
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04-12-2014, 09:13 PM
#107
I did say annual changes and on data since 1986
Annual probably too long a time frame for you eh
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04-12-2014, 09:20 PM
#108
BFG - Same data series on a monthly basis (ie change from previous month) it is slightly less correlated (even though still essentially non-existent) than against the annual changes
PS - also only using monthly mid points so would not capture the hourly / daily stuff you see (just noise)
Last edited by winner69; 04-12-2014 at 09:33 PM.
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05-12-2014, 07:10 AM
#109
Originally Posted by winner69
BFG - Same data series on a monthly basis (ie change from previous month) it is slightly less correlated (even though still essentially non-existent) than against the annual changes
PS - also only using monthly mid points so would not capture the hourly / daily stuff you see (just noise)
Ah right got you. Charts can change quite dramatically between, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly!
What's your outlook then? Are you a parity pirate? (Yarrrr)
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05-12-2014, 08:49 AM
#110
Originally Posted by BFG
Ah right got you. Charts can change quite dramatically between, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly!
What's your outlook then? Are you a parity pirate? (Yarrrr)
My view much the same as a few months ago - there will be short term spikes and tumbles (the noise you see) but with an upward bias and I would not be surprised to see a new peak sometime next year (probably not parity though)
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