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  1. #511
    Member karlos68's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Is the coming Election swaying you guys?
    Nope.

    I don't vote.......learned as a kid whoever comes to power it's just the same ole same ole yadda yadda yadda..........

    Reason being we are a First World Country, keep all in check, follow the leader, the masses are easily influenced by those in power, and yadda yadda yadda....

    For myself Hoop, one quick glance at a chart is explanatory for myself..enjoy your weekend...(V8) Supercars are on

  2. #512
    Legend JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Is the coming Election swaying you guys?
    not really but you know if Labour/Green poll well it would add downward pressure on the NZD >>
    Sell the hype, buy the fear. Always second guess the sentiment but trust in the fundamentals

  3. #513
    Legend JBmurc's Avatar
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    hoping the NZD can hold 95c+(till I convert my 80k NZD) looking very toppy >>>>
    Sell the hype, buy the fear. Always second guess the sentiment but trust in the fundamentals

  4. #514
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    Is the coming Election swaying you guys? ...The reason I ask is why do you think break out to the downside is going to happen with in the next month or two...Karlos's long term chart is exactly that...long term...The descending triangle is valid from the mid 2014 starting point and the apex is projected out to the year 2022.....Most of the breakouts occur 2/3 to 3/4 along the triangle towards the apex which suggests chances are the downward breakout would occur during the years 2019 and 2020.....A long time between drinks ..eh?

    The kicker is.. after waiting until the year 2020, when it finally happens it may go the other way and break out to the top side (36% chance [Bulkowski])......

    .....just saying

    Edit: Correction...valid from March 2015 not Mid 2014
    Last edited by Hoop; 16-06-2017 at 09:06 PM.

  5. #515
    Member karlos68's Avatar
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    I believe NZ/AUS has some cohesion with PEN and Spot Price U308 charts Hoop.

    Both PEN and U308 are narrowing to the breakout point of their Descending Wedges, could still be some time dragging on as you point out, thou it is drawing close to the point of anytime now ....just saying my belief.

  6. #516
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    Quote Originally Posted by karlos68 View Post
    I believe NZ/AUS has some cohesion with PEN and Spot Price U308 charts Hoop.

    Both PEN and U308 are narrowing to the breakout point of their Descending Wedges, could still be some time dragging on as you point out, thou it is drawing close to the point of anytime now ....just saying my belief.

    Yep ...fair enough...I often use other related and sometimes unrelated variables that correlate together with the subject I'm investigating e.g Copper v DOW used to be leading indicator out of a bear cycle.
    cheers
    Hoop

  7. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    not really but you know if Labour/Green poll well it would add downward pressure on the NZD >>

    Yeah...the mass sentiment could do this (short term effect?)

  8. #518
    An awesome cool cat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Yeah...the mass sentiment could do this (short term effect?)
    Bit of comment around about politics and investing - general conclusion from seasoned investors is watch fundamentals, not politics.

    Politics just create noise but fundamentals win out in the end

    Spose if you are a gambler/trader/punter this noise is good .....but if an investor don't listen to it.
    Last edited by winner69; 17-06-2017 at 07:43 AM.
    A valuation multiple is nothing but shorthand for a proper analysis of long-term discounted cash flows. Using them is just being lazy.

  9. #519
    Legend JBmurc's Avatar
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    Got much bigger lot of AUD today @ .9430

    be interesting how the outcome of the yachting affects the cross rate >>>
    Sell the hype, buy the fear. Always second guess the sentiment but trust in the fundamentals

  10. #520
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    for the record I am still holding AUD/NZD longs. It got close but my stop was only soft and there was no daily close below. Was looking a lot better until the RBA shot their mouth off yesterday. ...... I am increasingly dubious that this will work as time passes without increasing confirmation but these have been large patterns taking over a year and a half so the playing out can also take a similar timeframe. Good point is that anything under 1.04 has not been sustained
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  11. #521
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    and we are off......!
    AUDNZD11-7-17.JPG
    Last edited by peat; 11-07-2017 at 10:39 PM.

  12. #522
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    look at this beauty, tells a story

    AUDNZD14-7-17.JPG
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  13. #523
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    a complete monologue in this thread but too bad. there's only one thing madder than talking to yourself , and that's listening.

    still in long, now 1.0780 , may take some of the table soon but not hurry when I'm having this much fun.

    AUDNZD18-7-17.JPG
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  14. #524
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    a complete monologue in this thread but too bad. there's only one thing madder than talking to yourself , and that's listening.

    still in long, now 1.0780 , may take some of the table soon but not hurry when I'm having this much fun.

    AUDNZD18-7-17.JPG
    I,m listening Peat.I listen to anyone who's having fun

  15. #525
    Legend JBmurc's Avatar
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    nice >>> glad I shifted the funds when I did
    Sell the hype, buy the fear. Always second guess the sentiment but trust in the fundamentals

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