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  1. #101
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    Here's a good break down on NZ exports (wow dairy is massive!)

    Exports - Top 20 commodities

    Source: Statistics New Zealand
    Commodity NZ$ Millions Year end
    Milk powder, butter, and cheese 13,590 31-Dec-13
    Meat and edible offal 5,276 31-Dec-13
    Logs, wood, and wood articles 3,858 31-Dec-13
    Crude oil 1,727 31-Dec-13
    Machinery 1,527 31-Dec-13
    Beverages 1,491 31-Dec-13
    Fruits and nuts 1,483 31-Dec-13
    Fish 1,327 31-Dec-13
    Aluminoids, starches and glues 1,253 31-Dec-13
    Electrical machinery and equipment 1,066 31-Dec-13
    Cereal preparations 973 31-Dec-13
    Aluminium 972 31-Dec-13
    Pearls, precious stones, and metals 836 31-Dec-13
    Wool 756 31-Dec-13
    Optical, medical, and measuring equipment 745 31-Dec-13
    Miscellaneous edible preparations 738 31-Dec-13
    Wool pulp 620 31-Dec-13
    Hides, skins and leather 597 31-Dec-13
    Iron and steel 575 31-Dec-13
    Paper products 479 31-Dec-13

  2. #102
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    Apparently Iron Ore makes up 22% of Australian exports

    Attachment 6560

    Apparently dairy makes up 24% for NZ

    Attachment 6561
    Last edited by BFG; 04-12-2014 at 07:55 PM.

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by BFG View Post
    Apparently Iron Ore makes up 22% of Australian exports

    Attachment 6560
    Probably more like 10 % now ........

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Probably more like 10 % now ........
    Which commodity are we betting recovers first eh?

  5. #105
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    There is little (almost non-existent) correlation between annual changes in the ANZ Dairy Product Price Index and annual changes in the NZD/AUD (correlation coefficient of 0.09)

    And counter intuitively there is no correlation between changes in that same index and GDP

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    There is little (almost non-existent) correlation between annual changes in the ANZ Dairy Product Price Index and annual changes in the NZD/AUD (correlation coefficient of 0.09)

    And counter intuitively there is no correlation between changes in that same index and GDP
    Why is it that I have noted large drops over the past few months when GDT auction negative results are announced early mornings here then Winner?

  7. #107
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I did say annual changes and on data since 1986

    Annual probably too long a time frame for you eh

  8. #108
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    BFG - Same data series on a monthly basis (ie change from previous month) it is slightly less correlated (even though still essentially non-existent) than against the annual changes

    PS - also only using monthly mid points so would not capture the hourly / daily stuff you see (just noise)
    Last edited by winner69; 04-12-2014 at 08:33 PM.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    BFG - Same data series on a monthly basis (ie change from previous month) it is slightly less correlated (even though still essentially non-existent) than against the annual changes

    PS - also only using monthly mid points so would not capture the hourly / daily stuff you see (just noise)
    Ah right got you. Charts can change quite dramatically between, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly!

    What's your outlook then? Are you a parity pirate? (Yarrrr)

  10. #110
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BFG View Post
    Ah right got you. Charts can change quite dramatically between, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly!

    What's your outlook then? Are you a parity pirate? (Yarrrr)
    My view much the same as a few months ago - there will be short term spikes and tumbles (the noise you see) but with an upward bias and I would not be surprised to see a new peak sometime next year (probably not parity though)

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