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  1. #121
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    You better hope Fonterra's payout isn't less than $4.75 today then Winner. My bet is $4.55.

  2. #122

  3. #123
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Give the traders something to play around with for a few hours ....usual short term (seconds / minutes) reaction

    All back to normal this afternoon, the AUD/NZD cross that is
    Last edited by winner69; 10-12-2014 at 09:30 AM.

  4. #124
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    No real effect, looks like it was pretty much priced in. See what Wheeler says tomorrow eh? 93 resistance held well.

  5. #125
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    I note Fonterra os even downbeat about this way lower forecast as well. If this keeps up I'd expect low 4's next time...

  6. #126
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    So Wheeler has maintained a "soft" tightening regime (read: I'll change at the drop of a hat) and said the current levels are "unjustifiable & unsustainable"

    So traders spike it up to 94!

    Ah well, time to shove more money across the ditch in 2015!

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by BFG View Post
    As expected, a nice big fat bounce off the primary downtrend line @ 93 cents as stated earlier. Traders must be running scared of Fonterra's pay out in the mid $4's tomorrow. A lot of pain heading the Kiwis way very soon...
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    I'll reply before the TA textbook gets recited at me.......To be fair BFG is technically correct..but from many bad experiences with trend lines I now take the conservative view in which I rather see a decent result (other indicators in support) not a marginal one off before I convince myself of any technical change......
    Quote Originally Posted by BFG View Post
    So Wheeler has maintained a "soft" tightening regime (read: I'll change at the drop of a hat) and said the current levels are "unjustifiable & unsustainable"

    So traders spike it up to 94!

    Ah well, time to shove more money across the ditch in 2015!
    Marginal downtrend confirmations are suspect as I outlined in my earlier post...Less experienced chartists can quickly become unglued by jumping in too quickly on a hint of a confirmation...and erringly reinforce that charting confirmation hint with their own non-charting predetermined assumptions (no matter how logical it may seem), instead of waiting for other related charting signals to verify.........Mixing bits and pieces from non related disciplines to validate a personal desired result (Confirmation Bias) is an investor sin which creates false logic..unfortunately on ST this happens so often it has become "normal"..and posters wonder in disbelief when an event goes against their and their groups "logic"...which can lead to investor Cognitive Dissonance**.

    Todays NZ$ move up to .9393 has proved there is no primary downtrend line at present offering strong resistances..

    Today's move up further confirms the channel upward breakout that occurred 2 weeks ago (see above chart)....and further validates what Winner has been saying..

    **http://www.moneymanagement.com.au/an...ive-dissonance
    Last edited by Hoop; 11-12-2014 at 11:44 AM.

  8. #128
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

    Attachment 6501
    Warned of this 3 weeks ago. No notice taken. I guess I should have stated the target for the upthrust has a lot to do with the height of the 'flagpole', but those with a burning interest will work that out

  9. #129
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xerof View Post
    A cursory glance at Hoops's chart and this leaps out..... Sorry moosie

    Attachment 6501
    Yes mate, it was a great post and I did bring it up a bit later on.

    BFG says irrational market, I say that chart supported by fundamentals

    And I liked the flag pole bit as well
    Last edited by winner69; 11-12-2014 at 01:13 PM.

  10. #130
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    NZD/AUD at about 94 cents seems about right

    Don't think it will go much above 95/96 but who knows if Australia keeps sinking into the mire

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