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24-12-2014, 08:20 PM
#151
I still find it hard to believe we have a rockstar economy ...more like a fake rockstar ....Chch rebuild our great driver ...while the rest of NZ pays inflated housing insurance to fill the losses the International Insurance majors have been hit with ...
NZD stronger than AUD what a joke the AUD banks our a biggest leaders in turn taking NZD profits back to AUD and also they our a biggest creator of NZD .....When mr Key wants to borrow another 100mill he goes to ANZ commercial bank etc not "kiwibank" ...so our debt is really AUD
so if RBA puts rates up we as a nation plays not the other way round .....
NZ to AUS exporters will get absolutely shafted if we hit parity
Last edited by JBmurc; 24-12-2014 at 08:24 PM.
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
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30-12-2014, 09:48 AM
#152
Everyone seems to be repeating the parity mantra now. Received no less than 3 articles yesterday stating that it was more or less a given now. I take this as a contrarian indicator of epic proportions. Either way I'm happy 
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30-12-2014, 10:15 AM
#153
 Originally Posted by Hoop
Sorry BFG for not responding quicker..I haven't had much time lately to view ST posts...and I've just found this one I should respond to.
Referring back to my previous chart.. the TA Targets after the breakout is approx 0.955 for the channel breakout and ~0.97 for the broadening pattern. The trading targets aren't resistance points, they are just points or lines in the sand that suggest there's a ~70% chance of the NZ$ reaching that point after the breakout as long as there are no strong resistances in the way...The broadening wedge pattern target has a strong resistance point in the way...so it would be a much less than 70% chance,,,therefore not a useful target point...and the TA target focus would be on the ~0.955 (the point where Technical Traders may offload [sell])
However it not quite "blue sky" yet...I'm working off an interactive chart* so the figures and dates might not be entirely accurate but it says.. back in Jan and March 2014 the previous double tops (just under 0.95) showed how powerful that historic resistance (~July 1995) was to break...With NZ$ breaking that point recently, will it now be a strong support point??..Theoretically Yes...and provide a much less buy in risk area..
To reach blue sky (assuming since NZ$ free market status) the NZ$ has to break above the ~0.958 * area (Dec 5th 2005)..If the previous historic resistance before that was a guide then reaching "blue sky" could be a difficult hurdle to jump..
If blue sky is reached, there is no existing resistances, so chances of reaching parity would be much improved ...At 1.00 (parity) I would expect there to be a psychological boundary (resistance) area
Originally Posted by BFG
Everyone seems to be repeating the parity mantra now. Received no less than 3 articles yesterday stating that it was more or less a given now. I take this as a contrarian indicator of epic proportions. Either way I'm happy
Really!!!.......(NZ$ has entered "blue Sky Territory")
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30-12-2014, 10:42 AM
#154
Originally Posted by Hoop
Really!!!.......(NZ$ has entered "blue Sky Territory")
Even soaring eagles can drop as fast as a plummetting elephant when gravity takes over 
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01-01-2015, 02:49 PM
#155
Originally Posted by Daytr
I think what we are seeing in the Aussie economy i'e dramatic slowdown, we are yet to see here as the collapse of the commodity boom & capex spend is already hitting Australia, whereas the dairy price for instance won't hit until next year. I think the RBNZ rate rises will prove to he a mistake & they will need to reverse them in 2015. Auckland property is being fueled by offshore influences & immigration & higher interest rates hardly affect them.
“I think the RBNZ rate rises will prove to be a mistake & they will need to reverse them in 2015. Auckland property is being fuelled by offshore influences & immigration & higher interest rates hardly affect them”
I agree with this. Now Australia wants to see lower exchange rate to prop up their economy. If NZD appreciate more than AUD or if we see parity, it can affect local export industry and tourism industry badly. New Zealand already lost export competitiveness for some industries due to higher NZD.
However, both AUD and NZD should depreciate against USD sharply specially toward second half of 2015. In addition, just like we saw money inflow into AUD and NZD sooner than later we may see money outflow from both AUD and NZD. I also don’t think that the carry trade position for European and Japanese investors will be attractive hereafter due to uncertainty situation, potential for depreciation of AUD and NZD and the slowing both Australia's terms of trade and commodity prices. Finally, any speculative leaving in long positions could lead to free fall in AUD and NZD.
My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 01-01-2015 at 02:52 PM.
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01-01-2015, 08:30 PM
#156
I see the iron ore prices had a bounce ...with talk round of major re-stocking early in the new year ....the lower AUD/USD has got to be helping many miners along with the lower energy costs.....
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
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07-01-2015, 06:37 AM
#157
Did I just see .96 plus, yes I did
Things still in NZD favour over the AUD - like relative economic performance etc
Go you good thing
Last edited by winner69; 07-01-2015 at 06:42 AM.
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07-01-2015, 07:14 AM
#158
Originally Posted by winner69
Did I just see .96 plus, yes I did
Things still in NZD favour over the AUD - like relative economic performance etc
Go you good thing
You sure did, .9613 at typing. Dairy auction up 3.6% overnight. Looks like milk may finally be finding a bottom. I read an article the other day about iron ore and milk usually running in parallel pricewise. Spooky!
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07-01-2015, 10:45 AM
#159
Last edited by Hoop; 07-01-2015 at 11:18 AM.
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07-01-2015, 01:49 PM
#160
Originally Posted by Hoop
Looking out of my NZ$ technical Window ..Wow!! a nice day and the eagles are soaring high enjoying the " Blue Sky" as they do...
Hang on!!...whats that falling out of the sky  ...Hmmm..Maybe that Arthur's Pass earthquake wasn't due to a shifting fault line
Moose are pretty dumb animals sometimes. All my Kiwi savings are in terrible danger of being converted in to 'Roos very soon.
Make hay while the sun shines and all that 
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