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  1. #16
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    The cross that is the title of this thread aud/nzd
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #17
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    When RSI < 30
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #18
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    Yes, 70,30,14
    sorry, cropped it out of the pic

  4. #19
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    Moderately acceptable bearish gartley on the AUD/NZD cross now
    Attached Images Attached Images
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  5. #20
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    Last edited by peat; 01-04-2014 at 09:41 PM.

  6. #21
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Yes, many pundits were expecting Australia's Reserve Bank to lower its interest rate yesterday. I did too, given the boost it would bring to resource company tax revenues that the Government would enjoy from it, but it didn't happen (due to housing market pressure?). There will be a few days of further climb in the AUS/USD in my opinion before the Treasury and others start to talk it down...I'm guessing from around 0.935.

    Edit: Building approvals have just been announced for Australia - down 5% (last time up 7%).

    BC
    Last edited by Bobcat.; 02-04-2014 at 01:09 PM.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat. View Post
    Yes, many pundits were expecting Australia's Reserve Bank to lower its interest rate yesterday. I did too, given the boost it would bring to resource company tax revenues that the Government would enjoy from it, but it didn't happen (due to housing market pressure?). There will be a few days of further climb in the AUS/USD in my opinion before the Treasury and others start to talk it down...I'm guessing from around 0.935.

    Edit: Building approvals have just been announced for Australia - down 5% (last time up 7%).

    BC

    I read on Bloomburg that 33 out of 33 economist were picking the RBA to hold rates?
    On another note:
    AUD/NZD currently going crazy. 1.0650 to just under 1.0800
    Whats the cause of this NZD weakness?

  8. #23
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    With drought everywhere even in the US I think this soft dairy prices will be temporary and NZDAUD will try to break the resistance at 95 level. Correction should hit sub 92 before I start buying again.

  9. #24
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    You can buy re $1.07526 $ NZ atm Entrep what a bonus if you're coming back for a period/Good. Noone pick the tops and bottoms of things accurately. Id average in i.e. bring the same amount over at the same intervals e.g. $20,000 every 2 weeks.. Seems no matter what happens you're in a winning position Doing nothing could be the riskiest strat.

  10. #25
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    The chart formation here is very similar to Sept of last year when it did a double top at 0.89 and then down to low 0.86 then rally towrds 0.92. I still believe uptrend still intact and we are just in teh corrective phase to 0.92.

  11. #26
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    I await your post/PM with bated breath!
    who?
    me?

    I'm continuing to add shorts in Aud/NZD.
    Trade is at this point going wrong but I will likely hold as per prev statement ie close when RSI < 30 and continue to sell when >70. Simple strategy , pays off in most cases but not all. Cant win em all.
    The gartley did perform with price returning to 32% retracement from the 78% line but didnt extend further as would have been hoped for. Maybe this next time reversal will continue
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  12. #27
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    Patiently waiting for the Kiwi to run out of steam against my US$--At this stage I would imagine it may take an event that causes investors to run for a safe haven currency --Kiwi has really been chugging along as of late--Seems overvalued but your never know with these things.

    In terms of rate hikes,one would have to question if its better to penalize your overseas exporters(the life blood of the economy) to keep housing prices in check.
    Last edited by skid; 11-04-2014 at 06:50 AM.

  13. #28
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    But should preventing speculation(of housing)come up trumps over real business?(exporters)

    Just another Quandary in the world of the economy

  14. #29
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    I believe finally it is time to avoid NZD. It will go down against AUD sooner than later. I also believe NZD will have one of the biggest corrections during next 18 months. Just like stock and commodity market we could see long awaited shift in the currency cycle in the near future. Overvalued NZD could tumble against USD as well. NZD is number one over valued currency in the world followed by AUD and CAD. These three currencies could have bigger drop at any time now.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

  15. #30
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    Big Mac index (adjusted to GDP/person) doesn't agree with you...it seems to think NZ$ is only slighly overvalued (much less overvalued now than in 2011)..A$ is undervalued..... But hey what does a hamburger know that you guys don't know... right?

    EDIT:...It seems if you're Asian ... the whole world is overvalued (Hint:..change base currency on the interactive map))

    http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index
    Last edited by Hoop; 14-04-2014 at 11:19 AM.

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