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  1. #21
    Senior Member Bobcat.'s Avatar
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    Yes, many pundits were expecting Australia's Reserve Bank to lower its interest rate yesterday. I did too, given the boost it would bring to resource company tax revenues that the Government would enjoy from it, but it didn't happen (due to housing market pressure?). There will be a few days of further climb in the AUS/USD in my opinion before the Treasury and others start to talk it down...I'm guessing from around 0.935.

    Edit: Building approvals have just been announced for Australia - down 5% (last time up 7%).

    BC
    Last edited by Bobcat.; 02-04-2014 at 02:09 PM.
    To foretell the future, one must first unlock the secrets of the past.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat. View Post
    Yes, many pundits were expecting Australia's Reserve Bank to lower its interest rate yesterday. I did too, given the boost it would bring to resource company tax revenues that the Government would enjoy from it, but it didn't happen (due to housing market pressure?). There will be a few days of further climb in the AUS/USD in my opinion before the Treasury and others start to talk it down...I'm guessing from around 0.935.

    Edit: Building approvals have just been announced for Australia - down 5% (last time up 7%).

    BC

    I read on Bloomburg that 33 out of 33 economist were picking the RBA to hold rates?
    On another note:
    AUD/NZD currently going crazy. 1.0650 to just under 1.0800
    Whats the cause of this NZD weakness?

  3. #23
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    With drought everywhere even in the US I think this soft dairy prices will be temporary and NZDAUD will try to break the resistance at 95 level. Correction should hit sub 92 before I start buying again.

  4. #24
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    You can buy re $1.07526 $ NZ atm Entrep what a bonus if you're coming back for a period/Good. Noone pick the tops and bottoms of things accurately. Id average in i.e. bring the same amount over at the same intervals e.g. $20,000 every 2 weeks.. Seems no matter what happens you're in a winning position Doing nothing could be the riskiest strat.

  5. #25
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    The chart formation here is very similar to Sept of last year when it did a double top at 0.89 and then down to low 0.86 then rally towrds 0.92. I still believe uptrend still intact and we are just in teh corrective phase to 0.92.

  6. #26
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    I await your post/PM with bated breath!
    who?
    me?

    I'm continuing to add shorts in Aud/NZD.
    Trade is at this point going wrong but I will likely hold as per prev statement ie close when RSI < 30 and continue to sell when >70. Simple strategy , pays off in most cases but not all. Cant win em all.
    The gartley did perform with price returning to 32% retracement from the 78% line but didnt extend further as would have been hoped for. Maybe this next time reversal will continue
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #27
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    Patiently waiting for the Kiwi to run out of steam against my US$--At this stage I would imagine it may take an event that causes investors to run for a safe haven currency --Kiwi has really been chugging along as of late--Seems overvalued but your never know with these things.

    In terms of rate hikes,one would have to question if its better to penalize your overseas exporters(the life blood of the economy) to keep housing prices in check.
    Last edited by skid; 11-04-2014 at 07:50 AM.

  8. #28
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    But should preventing speculation(of housing)come up trumps over real business?(exporters)

    Just another Quandary in the world of the economy

  9. #29
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    I believe finally it is time to avoid NZD. It will go down against AUD sooner than later. I also believe NZD will have one of the biggest corrections during next 18 months. Just like stock and commodity market we could see long awaited shift in the currency cycle in the near future. Overvalued NZD could tumble against USD as well. NZD is number one over valued currency in the world followed by AUD and CAD. These three currencies could have bigger drop at any time now.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

  10. #30
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    Big Mac index (adjusted to GDP/person) doesn't agree with you...it seems to think NZ$ is only slighly overvalued (much less overvalued now than in 2011)..A$ is undervalued..... But hey what does a hamburger know that you guys don't know... right?

    EDIT:...It seems if you're Asian ... the whole world is overvalued (Hint:..change base currency on the interactive map))

    http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index
    Last edited by Hoop; 14-04-2014 at 12:19 PM.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Good piece suggesting retest of 90 cents as Asian data came in strong (ish) and Australian CPI is up next week. The field is set!

    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...5-3f9945d2816d
    Hi Moosie,

    Thought I'd stop by the Forex forum to wish you luck in manipulating the NZD/AUD exchange rate from the comfort of the Sharetrader forum

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by robbo24 View Post
    Hi Moosie,

    Thought I'd stop by the Forex forum to wish you luck in manipulating the NZD/AUD exchange rate from the comfort of the Sharetrader forum
    Exporters throughout the nation gather to give thanks to a young chap named Moosie, who, by jawboning the NZD down, has succeeded where the RBNZ had failed for years.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Oh that is absoute gold, made my night!
    Uh oh he's done it now... His prowess at manipulating markets has caused gold to take a downturn!!

  14. #34
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    On a more serious note, Golden Ballsacks is starting to weigh in with a heavy fist on the NZD (start buying up exporters if you believe them!)

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101590873
    Suppose the same guy at Goldman Sachs who has tried to talk down the AUD to 80 cents USD over the last few months ..forecast 80 cents ... .... seems to be going the other way to me

    GS have been short AUD and NZD for a while .... must be getting a bit worried .... but eventually they will be right if they stick to their guns

    Maybe you could join them instead of the RBNZ Mr Moosie
    Last edited by winner69; 18-04-2014 at 10:02 AM.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Maybe you could join them instead of the RBNZ Mr Moosie
    No no no, Moosie is going to be the the Next Top Investor.

    Taking the best of Allan Hubbard and Derek Handley, he will run his own show and be the hero of the NZX.

  16. #36
    Senior Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    I believe sooner than later NZD will go down against AUD. We could see bigger drop in NZD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short NZD is more vulnerable now.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 20-04-2014 at 08:58 PM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  17. #37
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    This KiwiOz hit the major support at 0.92 where I started buying again. It went below that level slightly but long term trend still up with out taking into account Hawkish RBNZ comments.

  18. #38
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    The elastic band snapped back!
    The gradual continued build up of my short Aud/NZD positions was saved from disaster by last 24 hours events with some of them moving into profit and others still being in a fairly large loss. Certainly not going to be the best trade ever but not looking as bad as I thought it was going to be.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  19. #39
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    Hi all - what are the current views on the AUDNZD exchange rate? The NZD has been under some pressure...but will this continue or will the NZD press ahead and continue its upward trend.

    From a personal point of view, I have a sum of AUD that I would like to bring back to NZD in the next 12 months. My current thinking is to drip feed it back in say 4 tranches as opposed to one lump some.

  20. #40
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corporate View Post
    Hi all - what are the current views on the AUDNZD exchange rate? The NZD has been under some pressure...but will this continue or will the NZD press ahead and continue its upward trend.

    From a personal point of view, I have a sum of AUD that I would like to bring back to NZD in the next 12 months. My current thinking is to drip feed it back in say 4 tranches as opposed to one lump some.
    Given the unpredictable nature of exchange rates that is the best way course of action to avoid outright speculation.
    However it is historically low (AUD/NZD rate) so if one was to speculate one would think there may be some return to mean over the medium to long term.

    Despite current trends , personally I tend to think that long term AUD is a stronger economy (and hence currency) than NZD and wiser people than me are seeing current low AUD/NZD rate as a a good entry point for Aussie investments.

    I see Antipodean currencies as both on long term climbs vs USD which will of course be punctuated by violent corrections.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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