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  1. #241
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    Quote Originally Posted by dingoNZ View Post
    0.9827, rates HELD. As you were chaps
    Looks like parity may be a while off. Its interesting they are now discussing this on breakfast tv. I think the more plebs talk about it the less likely it is it may occur. BUt that aside, one thing I do not understand. Everyone (generally speaking here) is saying how bad the Australian economy is. And the mining sector is suffering yes. But my younger brother in Sydney works in commercial carpet laying and he has never been busier. Anecdotal I know but I cannot juxtapose the two without asking is it really that bad in Australia?

  2. #242
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Looks like parity may be a while off. Its interesting they are now discussing this on breakfast tv. I think the more plebs talk about it the less likely it is it may occur. BUt that aside, one thing I do not understand. Everyone (generally speaking here) is saying how bad the Australian economy is. And the mining sector is suffering yes. But my younger brother in Sydney works in commercial carpet laying and he has never been busier. Anecdotal I know but I cannot juxtapose the two without asking is it really that bad in Australia?
    One thing that worries me about Australia is the housing market. I've have been hearing stories from Sydney that people are borrowing upwards of $700k at LVRs as high as 97%. Absolutely scary!

  3. #243
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Looks like parity may be a while off. Its interesting they are now discussing this on breakfast tv. I think the more plebs talk about it the less likely it is it may occur. BUt that aside, one thing I do not understand. Everyone (generally speaking here) is saying how bad the Australian economy is. And the mining sector is suffering yes. But my younger brother in Sydney works in commercial carpet laying and he has never been busier. Anecdotal I know but I cannot juxtapose the two without asking is it really that bad in Australia?
    Not all the mining sector is stuffed many of the ASX gold miners are making record profits as i'm sure many ASX miners are as there commodity prices in AUD are giving them some major profit margins(costs down also) ,,also with the Iron ore Coal & Energy sectors under so much pressure adding to major job losses ...Oz.labour rates have fallen ..

    Here in so called rockstar economy the export backbone is under major pressure... yet as building/property industry (thanks to cheap debt/ chch rebuild) is booming we are told we are far better off than Aussie(last I read we have one of the worse debt to household wealth in the western world) ..Auckland is the second most expensive city in the world to incomes to own a property ....

    Bonuses it's great for import's from the likes of Aussie Cheap.. lamb beef seafood anyone ? then of course kiwis and other nations boosting Aussie tourism over the likes of NZ..
    Last edited by JBmurc; 08-04-2015 at 10:05 PM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  4. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapiti View Post
    we are very close to a major collapse of NZ third largest industry.
    The chart below shows how the international price of logs has tumbled in the first few months of the year.
    Margins are now at levels that if they do not pick up many forest owners will stop logging.
    Of course forestry is no different to any other commodity in which major corporate forest owners will keep logging just for cash flow to satisfy the bank.
    see what a collapse of our 3rd largest industry will do to the AUD/NZ cross.

    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/
    3rd largest export maybe , but surely not the 3rd largest contribution to GDP etc .

  5. #245
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Yes ....pretty dire ... I'm really hoping later this year we have fallen but below 90c ...not really all that confident that our Gov gives a toss..while property/consumers are booming

    "Mr Key acknowledged many exporters were not happy with the situation but encouraged them to continue to invest and drive productivity. New Zealand firms were doing well on the international stage, he said"

    Well Mr key how do fishermen and other exporters that have 90%+ exports to Aussie drive productivity/investment if our profit margins are dropping 50-60% from 20yr averages because of the high NZD ? Its pretty simple you only have a set amount of Quota to catch by law ? you have rule of law on how and where you can fish and standard of F.V and costs ...so really just paying your workers less is the true only way to improve productivity ? maybe importing slaves from third world country ? ...
    Last edited by JBmurc; 09-04-2015 at 10:06 AM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  6. #246
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapiti View Post
    When your economy relies heavily on exports to balance the books and your 1st and 3rd largest exports are in very poor shape you can be assured all area's of GDP will eventually be effected.
    Just take a look across the ditch and how they are being effected by low commodity prices.
    It just so happens that the fall off in our big export commodities (dairy and wood) came later than coal,iron ore,copper and oil did for Aussie.
    But the result will be the same.
    yep fair enough.

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapiti View Post
    When your economy relies heavily on exports to balance the books and your 1st and 3rd largest exports are in very poor shape you can be assured all area's of GDP will eventually be effected.
    Just take a look across the ditch and how they are being effected by low commodity prices.
    It just so happens that the fall off in our big export commodities (dairy and wood) came later than coal,iron ore,copper and oil did for Aussie.
    But the result will be the same.
    Australia GDP doesn't look too bad

    The headlines and the stories don't seem to fit the data
    Attached Images Attached Images

  8. #248
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    I finished converting to AUD the other day, much more opportunities on the ASX.
    Short term while parity and beyond is still possible, in my opinion it will drop back down near the end of this year, and if not certainly in the long term.
    Not a recommendation or advice.

  9. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolf View Post
    I finished converting to AUD the other day, much more opportunities on the ASX.
    Short term while parity and beyond is still possible, in my opinion it will drop back down near the end of this year, and if not certainly in the long term.

    As have I, I've been over weighting my ASX holdings the past month or so, remember the average NZD/AUD cross rate is 0.84...

  10. #250
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    Doing the same thing here when purchasing stock.. looking to Australia first... swings and roundabouts, it will go back to .85 at some stage

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