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  1. #351
    Senior Member Toulouse - Luzern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    And savers, once again, come to the rescue of over-committed dairy farmers and Auckland property owners!
    I feel the same as you on this MacDuffy.

  2. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Bring it on sub 70c Vs USD 85c Vs AUD ....negative will lose some buying power.... fuel will increase ...New TV's, Autos etc and other luxuries will increase ....boo hoo >>

    But much brighter for many hard working kiwis
    I'm a person that believe in the the wealth and health of a Country's Economy is measured by its currency.....

    The unfortunate fact of life JB is the hard working kiwis have to rely on the rich bastards in industry. ...At the moment these rich bastard's investment money is leaving NZ in droves...Both Kiwis money and overseas peoples alike.

    An already trending down NZ$ followed by a cut in the OCR.. Thanks Mr Wheeler for suddenly making NZ an unattractive place to invest in...

    I hope Mr Wheeler is in control of his sledge hammer.....as there are some very delicate bubbles in our economy.

  3. #353
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    Hoop, I agree, but its not his job to continually inflate bubbles, in fact quite the opposite. They have to work with the policy given them by the government & sometimes the RBNZ policy will need to negate poor government policy say in regards Auckland housing.
    There is still plenty of money pouring in, due to other reasons & mainly the woes of other countries has seen Kiwis come home in droves.
    There are also industries like tourism & exports that will benefit from a weaker dollar, so it certainly isn't all bad. In fact its only the 'hot' money that you are referring to & that would have left at some point anyway. Real investment is made more attractive by a lower ccy & lower interest rates.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  4. #354
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Economy well and truly rooted according to headlines--- up a miserly 0.2% seasonally adjusted (the yanks would say 0.8% annualised)

    March quarter activity +2.5% up on pcp, annual growth 3.2%

    Traders happy, NZD down

    Daytr happy, more rate cuts sooner than later

  5. #355
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    Well the lower Kiwi overall will be much better to NZ as we are an export led economy.
    I think the RBNZ will be very aware that interest rates are already historically low & I wouldn't expect too many more cuts.
    2-3 more 25bp cuts would be my pick. Enough to get the dollar where they are more comfortable to offset lower commodity prices.
    Of course this will make NZ property cheaper for foreign buyers, so its not all what the RBNZ would like.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  6. #356
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    New Zealand's economy grew slower than expected in the quarter ending March, prompting analysts to forecast another interest rate cut next month.

    Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2 percent in the March quarter, down from 0.7 percent in the previous quarter, the government statistics agency said Thursday.

    The lower growth reflected a 2.9-percent fall in primary industries, the largest fall since September 2010, according to Statistics New Zealand.

    "Oil and gas were big factors in the lower GDP growth this quarter," national accounts manager Gary Dunnet said. "There was less extraction and exploration, as international prices fell."

    Agriculture fell by 2.3 percent in the March quarter, dragged down by lower milk production.

    Forestry production and exports of forestry products were also down.

    A 2.4-percent increase in retail trade and accommodation helped to offset the decrease in primary industries.

    Possible contributors to retail trade and accommodation includes the 2015 Cricket World Cup, which New Zealand co-hosted with Australia, and more visitors during Chinese New Year than in the past.

    International tourist spending in New Zealand was up 2.3 percent in the March quarter.

    Despite lower quarterly growth, annual GDP growth was still strong at 3.2 percent.

    The size of the economy was 239 billion NZ dollars (165.17 billion U.S. dollars) for the year ended March.

    An Economic Note from the ASB Bank said the quarterly growth was weaker than the market's median expectation of 0.6 percent.

    It said the figures would be a "significant surprise" to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which cut the official cash by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent earlier this month and signaled another possible cut in September.

    "We now expect this rate cut to come in July rather than September," said the Economic Note.

    Finance Minister Bill English said the figures showed solid, sustainable economic growth that had seen 74,000 jobs created in the past year, and average annual wages rising faster than inflation.

    "The lower dairy output was in line with Treasury's forecasts, which see the economy continuing to grow at around 2.8 percent on average over the next four years," English said.

    "This results highlights that New Zealand is closely tied to international markets, and risks are ever-present."
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  7. #357
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    I became bear on NZD and AUD from 2013/14 onwards and still I am one of the big bears for both AUD and NZD due to new development in the currency market. Now I am one of the big bears for housing markets in Auckland, Sydney and Melbourne.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any property, security, commodity, or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

  8. #358
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    I agree winner, re Auckland particularly. Its all happened too fast & many people will see the potential to cash up & buy in the regions. Regional property is about to explode in my view as a result. Sydney & Melbourne & too a lesser extent Auckland depend a lot on immigration so if that holds up so to might property. Eventually however it will come unstuck.
    Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.

  9. #359
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Well the Greeks have given the fingers to Germany et al talking about having referendum. The insiders will hate this, they can't control referendum outcomes.

    That'll teach them in trying to bail out the banks by essentially transferring the debt to the Greek tax payers. Tough bikkies guys, you should have been more responsible in the first place and not letting Greece get into this state to start with.

    Whatever things will get uglier for the Greeks. But what's the point of 'raising taxes' so the extra bit can go to rich creditors.
    Last edited by winner69; 28-06-2015 at 03:10 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #360
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    No cash left in Greek banks .....what then happens to the NZD
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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