AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[Daytr]

If there is a Grexit, which seems to have now become more likely, (but obviously could go either way) you would think the dollar rallies at least initially anyway, so Kiwi lower. All will depend on the fallout and its the first time I have heard the likes of Key playing down a Grexit, so it appears they think it will happen. The debt has largely been privatized, (Banks bailed out again) so its now the European taxpayers & IMF mostly on the hook.
Criminal how bail out funds to Greece was purely to ensure commercial banks got their money back & taxpayers pick up the bill.

[JBmurc]

Global Glut
Domestic output in May reached 18.4 billion pounds, the most in any month, and is on pace to reach a record 208.7 billion pounds this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said June 18. Globally, production will rise 2.1 percent to a record 582.52 million tons as top exporter New Zealand sells the most ever and the European Union ends limits on dairies that had been in place since 1984, the USDA said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...lm-u-s-dairies

[Bobcat.]

Our currency has plummeted over the past two months from 77.34 (April 28) to now 66.70 on its cross with the USD. That's 10.64 / 77.34 =13.7%. Against the Pound it's even more = 1.946 to now 2.336 = .4 / 1.946 = a whopping 20% !! ..in just two months.

This is not Greece. Our currency is getting way oversold now. I've just loaded up my FOREX reserves to come in strong on any sign of a rebound, and with a cheeky bid in at 66.50.

[Joshuatree]

Against the Aussie we have dropped from re 99.7c to 87.7c in re a month , thats a 12 % change!!. Sure makes all my aussie shares look good on paper though; turbo charged..

[Bobcat.]

Time to move some money back across the ditch me thinks, JT...even if it does mean feeding the coffers of banks charging exorbitant fees via their FOREX spreads. ANZ for example has the audacity to state on their FOREX contract note 'transaction fee = zero" . They must think we're idiots. Their hidden fees amount to almost 2%.

[Daytr]

Try NZ Forex BC, I think their spreads are fairly tight comparative to the banks.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the NZD go to 1.18 over time.

Cheers Daytr

[JBmurc]

Against the Aussie we have dropped from re 99.7c to 87.7c in re a month , thats a 12 % change!!. Sure makes all my aussie shares look good on paper though; turbo charged..

I'm gutted to not have sold our house round this time many were dreaming of parity ...would have put a good chunk of funds into AUD

[Bobcat.]

I've just come in on the AUD/USD at 75.14. It's plummeted this afternoon after both disappointing Retail Sales figures and a lower than forecast Chinese Services PMI. Expecting a decent rebound to somewhere around 76c tomorrow morning.

The AUD/NZD cross has also fallen a lot over the past 24 hrs, and IMO will continue to trend down over the next few weeks closer to 1.10.

Discl: Long now on the Kiwi and Aussie both against the USD.

[Daytr]

I hope you are right BC as I'll jump back in.
Steven Topliss economist at BNZ came out yesterday saying NZs chances of going into recession have increased & I agree with him, although the much lower NZD may save the day.

[Hoop]

Yes recession risk increases...A tell tale sign is the inverting of the yield curve..

Back in March there was a trending move towards an inverted yield curve. With the RBNZ interest rate cut that trending move was eliminated.....Now this trending is back..with the 5y Swap very close to causing a partial inverted yield curve event.

The option to eliminate the inversion threat is drop the short term rate again and again in an effort to keep it lower than the falling long term rates.


Todays table shows a big drop....

NZ OCR	3.25
10y Swap	3.87	-0.06		-1.53%
3m Bank Bill	3.18	-0.04		-1.24%
5y Swap	3.30	-0.06		-1.79%