AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[winner69]

I hope you are right BC as I'll jump back in.
Steven Topliss economist at BNZ came out yesterday saying NZs chances of going into recession have increased & I agree with him, although the much lower NZD may save the day.

With the likes of Topliss and Bagrie influencing things so much is Wheeler almost irrelevant (or redundant)

Pity we are talking our way into recession territory

For once Key seems the only sensible one at the moment

[Daytr]

I would suggest burying your head in the sand as Key basically has this morning is hardly sensible. I loved this bit. "Yes dairy prices are down a little bit" LOL
There are obvious risks to the NZ economy right now & they should be respected & acted upon.
Why do you think the RBNZ has been lowering rates? They can see the same.
You can't expect things like dairy prices to get absolutely smashed & not have a reasonable negative impact on the economy.
And now we have external factors such as China & Greece adding to the mix.
NZ as an export led economy relies on global growth & global consumption.
The problem for Key is, it doesn't suit his plans for the 2017 election of having the budget back in surplus.
He's borrowed to the hilt since he has been in power & now he may have to start spending more, meanwhile the tax take is likely to take quite a hit.
More debt.
I hope they are wrong & the BNZ was saying recession is a more likely chance not the probable prognosis.

[macduffy]

Pity we are talking our way into recession territory

So right, winner!

Too many commentators who automatically see the half full glass as empty. But then, they're probably talking their own books!

[Daytr]

Macduffy, there is such a thing as false optimism as well.
NZ business confidence survey down to three year lows...

[macduffy]

Macduffy, there is such a thing as false optimism as well.
NZ business confidence survey down to three year lows...

Hardly surprising when dairy prices have taken a hammering and the media continually focuses on the point. But there's still a lot going right for the NZ economy that doesn't get that attention.

[Daytr]

Well the dollar is being hammered & interest rates lower, all good things for the NZ economy & they are getting plenty of coverage.
Tourism gets a fair shake & Auckland property you can't get away from in the media.
What other areas would you like highlighted?
Unfortunately its the way of the world that bad news always travels faster & wider than good news.
Back to my original point was that best be on the front foot about it rather than as Key is saying, if it gets bad we might do something.

[macduffy]

Back to my original point was that best be on the front foot about it rather than as Key is saying, if it gets bad we might do something.

Seems I must have misunderstood your original point, Daytr? I didn't read anything there about getting on the front foot.

[Daytr]

"The problem for Key is, it doesn't suit his plans for the 2017 election of having the budget back in surplus.
He's borrowed to the hilt since he has been in power & now he may have to start spending more, meanwhile the tax take is likely to take quite a hit.
More debt."

[macduffy]

Aah, I see now.

I originally read that as a criticism of JK, missing that it was actually advocating more borrowing at this point. No argument from me there, when/if such stimulus becomes necessary.

[Daytr]

The criticism was that they have kept on borrowing through the good times & now we may be heading into a period where more government spending / borrowing is required & government debt is going to have to increase more from an already elevated level.

Cheers Daytr