How are you trading VIX Daytr (i.e., what instrument code are you using?)
Agree with you on AUDNZD, have an average price around .957 - MACD divergence points to a kick higher
Through a CFD via CMC markets.
Should have hung on. Mind you it dipped considerably for 24 hours before charging into the 18s!
Can't complain, I made very good money.
Now hopefully there will be a big mover in the Kiwi cross!
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
Goldman Sachs analyst is one of the few sensible analysts around - he says NZ don't need any more rate cuts.......
I've thinking the same too..at the moment....my my.. how my thinking has changed this last month... going from should've been a rate drop to 1.75% .. to now, the 2% should not be lowered..
I've been watching the NZ interest rate market movements for some time now....they took an "unhealthy" dive 2 months back, when the market created a partially inverted yield curve. I mentioned "unhealthy" because the Inverted yield curve is one of my "ducks" .. when many ducks line up in a row a recession usually begins..While the market was diving the NZRB lowered the rates from 2.25 to 2.00% , although the 0.25% fall corrected the yield curve..at that time I questioned whether a rate cut should've been to 1.75% as there was a lot of negative sentiment washing around most markets and the yield curve was looking rather flat......
Since mid August.. I got a gut feeling something suddenly changed, the world financial sentiment entered a "happy space". There was an absence of bad news and for a month the Bulls rallied...
Then last week a sharp world wide equity correction occurred using the same old lame, well worn excuse (FED to raise rates at some near future point in time)..
Positive Sentiment towards NZ has remained and recently intensified..with more "happy" news about the NZ economic growth..sort of brings back memories of the "Rock Star Economy" status..eh?
What didn't respond to the recent world wide Equity correction and a new phase of "worrying sentiment" was the NZ swap rates..They have instead ticked up (see interactive chart)
I wonder if Goldman Sachs are watching this area..
bought more AUD/NZD at 1.0481 ....... target is 1.1 so thats 90 for you people who quote the other way round. AUDNZD190120173hr.JPG
I still reckon the pattern of short term spikes and tumbles to remain in place. surprisingly (for some) is that the NZD hasn't fallen v AUD in response to Australian export prices improving relative to NZ prices in recent months.
I still reckon NZ fundamentals will perform stronger than Australian fundamentals this year and so see NZD/AUD remaining pretty high this year (maybe longer) .......and one of those spikes could even take it to parity (thats 1.0 who quote te other way round)
Depending on your timeframe peat you might get lucky on one of those short term tumbles
Last edited by winner69; 21-01-2017 at 09:01 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
I've been debating this with a few colleagues of late. We all know the guvna is playing currency wars for the exporters, inflation is a lost cause as there's not much of that going around anywhere at the moment.
First glance it looks like cutting below the 3% OCR level has caused the NZD to rally (as seen in below graph)
However that poses the question, where would the NZD be now if they hadn't have cut further to 2%?
Wheels is in a tough position, reluctantly cutting to keep the currency under control somewhat. Only positive is that the banks are not fully passing on the cut to borrowers/savers so it isn't fueling the housing fire as much.
Originally Posted by winner69
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