AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[winner69]

I was looking at it the right way around - like what the NZD is worth

Upside down chart ha ha ......Resistance at 94 ish

[Joshuatree]

Me too more pertinent to most of us upside down but thanks.

[Hoop]

A upsidedown chart.....Coppock indicator not suitable so have added trend indicators...
Note the bearish rising wedge? (another bottom touch to confirm would be nice) it has a 69% chance of breaking down through the bottom edge and according to Bulkowski "average distance to the breakout is 58 to 64% of the way to the triangles apex" ... so it due to happen now ......However don't get to hung up over it, as the downtrend after the breakout is very unreliable (Bulkowski) ...As you can see if the break down happens there are many places where this breakdown can fail...there are numerous shorter term resistances in play before the target price can be met (90.7)..

Of course it has a chance (31%) of breaking out to the top side ... getting above a short term slight downsloping resistance line yesterday is promising as it will no doubt increase that 31% chance...



The other noticeable thing is the conjunction at 95..If the NZ$ wants parity it has to get past this conjunction road block...I personally think this parity thing is a bridge too far ...the cycle seen from the very long 13yr chart point of view (previous AUSDvNZD chart(post#81)) seems to be topped out...the double top 94.7/94.9 chart pattern looks confirmed???

[winner69]

Yup, I see lower highs and lower lows ahead. Aussie CPI came in at a range topping 3% and crushed the Kiwi back to 92 today. Wheeler is up tomorrow and although he will likely raise on final time, there is already talk of RBNZ selling hard into the Kiwi to get it under control. Combined with an unknown bottom in dairy prices and mediocre inflation on this side of the ditch, I think our highs have been and truly gone.

I shoved more money across the ditch last week near 94 and couldn't be happier right now. That test of 90 up soon will be crucial

OMG - inflation will now start going through the roof . Petrol this weekend and then all the other imported stuff

No cheap Xmas presents this year

[Hoop]

OMG - inflation will now start going through the roof . Petrol this weekend and then all the other imported stuff

No cheap Xmas presents this year

Instead of giving them presents this year, give them the money instead Winner.....make sure it's in kiwi dollars .

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Well, from this chartists personal point of view, I think the Kiwi against the Ozzie has definitely double topped out...A noticeable feature around cyclic reversals (adds to confirming that reversal) are the numerous 50/200 moving average crossings where the bulls and bears are fighting the battle....We have had 4 death crosses (last one occurring on Wed 23rd, a day before the RBNZ OCR announcement) and 3 golden crosses since the cyclic reversal 4 months ago..

YES, the bull died quietly unnoticed as most cyclic reversals commonly do (contrary to mythical media attitudes of bulls dying with spectacular crashes)... This Bear Market Cycle is 4 months old****.. We are in the first stage of the bear market cycle ...so expect disappointing bull wins and more profitable bear wins ....the denial attitude that the bull cycle hasn't ended will slowly erode away to point when realisation will set in and that will trigger the first of at least one round of the dreaded "C" word...capitulation..

As of today NZ$1 is trading at 0.9110 very close to the chart pattern breakdown target price of 0.907.. Quote from my post above :- "As you can see if the break down happens there are many places where this breakdown can fail...there are numerous shorter term resistances in play before the target price can be met (90.7)..".
0.907 is just a line in the sand saying this target price had a theoretical 70% chance (probably a bit less% with all the supports in its way to met its target) of being met from the pattern breakout..It is not a support line..but curiously enough there is a support area around this .9070 area...

It may not happen but there is a good chance a relief rally (sucker) might be triggered somewhere around here (0.907) and bounce up to test the 0.9180 area... bounces during the 1st phase of a Bear cycle (denial phase) always give the bulls (bear deniers) some "I told you so" joy and pushes home the fact that their buy "cheap" in the dips strategy still works, and to the contrary, gives the media and the general "unwashed" more noise that the NZ$ needs intervention to bring it down.

If .9070 area breaks, the next major support is at 0.890..... As we can now believe with confidence from a series of ongoing TA confirmations that NZ$vA$ is in fact in a bear market cycle we can assume a future period of lower highs and lower lows...so expect at some near future that 0.890 support will be reached for testing..and odds on the 0.890 support will eventually break too...


**** A very similar cyclic reversal behaviour is happening with Gold but inverted...bull bear/fights together with golden and death crosses for control in the first stage of a cyclic bull market.

[winner69]

Check out the last time the RBNZ said stuff like this back in 07/08. .96 to .81 in matter of months (last chart on link beliw). My target is lower but I'd be pretty happy nontheless seeing a low 80 sooner rather than later.

Let the cascade effect lower begin (finally)!

http://www.anz.co.nz/commercial-inst...raphs/nzd-aud/

Is that the only reason why you think the NZD going to go to 0.80aud or less?

I believe that while the key drivers in relative economic growth and relative interest rates are such that they will continue to justify a high NZD/aud for another year or so, (maybe even higher?). But as always with currency there are short term movements (volatilty) and currently it is just down, but not the start of a long term correction

[Hoop]

..........Oddly enough, while Wheeler rabbits on about how high our NZD is, without his I-rate increases, the NZD fall could have been sudden and vicious.

Loved to be a fly on the RBNZ wall ....I guess there would've been some discussion about this latest rate rise...maybe they discussed that very scenario Belg of what could happen if they left the rate at 3.25?..could've been an inflationary catalyst..eh?

[winner69]

NZD and AUD (v USD) valued about right at the moment according to The Economst

Ready for a dive? Of course not, Just that most read the wrong headlines,the ones they want to believe

http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

[Valuegrowth]

Concur ... NZD hasn't anyplace to go except down. BTW the GDT auction prices are an indication of the future as most of the supply is locked up in longer term contracts. Hence NZD dollar fall will be steady.

Oddly enough, while Wheeler rabbits on about how high our NZD is, without his I-rate increases, the NZD fall could have been sudden and vicious.

I agree with you. Fall of NZD is imminent. During next 10 quarters it will drop sharply and will readjust to real value again.

[winner69]

I agree with you. Fall of NZD is imminent. During next 10 quarters it will drop sharply and will readjust to real value again.

What are assuming 'real value' is v used