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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    NZD and AUD (v USD) valued about right at the moment according to The Economst

    Ready for a dive? Of course not, Just that most read the wrong headlines,the ones they want to believe

    http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index
    Seems to be correct according to the chart below...Doesn't look overvalued to me either ...You could say it was overvalued in 2012 with the big gap between TOT and RTWI (see chart)...The only crossovers occurred during recessions....we are in a boom so the gap seems rather narrow historically-wise...maybe I could argue the NZ$ was slightly undervalued in June 2014.
    Ref: Reserve Bank Bulletin June 2014 ...link is found on this page


  2. #62
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    For me it is overvalued by more than 40% against USD. As I said before fall of NZD is imminent.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11300391

    NZ dollar slips as Key says kiwi over-valued

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11229779

    IMF says kiwi dollar overvalued

  3. #63
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    NZD falling again as Fonterra cuts the Farmgate price by 14%. Bounce off .9050 tonight, but a test of .9000 is up soon...
    http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...f-82c88311f879

    Asia Recap: Kiwi keeps bleeding on Fonterra milk pay-out

  4. #64
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Dairy auction prices absolutely smashed another 8% last night, back now to 2012 prices. I expect a smart dip below 90 cents very soon and am very bearish the Kiwi now. Nowhere to go but down for the next few months!

    So is this the start of a real tumble .....or just one of many dips in a long uptrend.

    I tend to go for the latter

  5. #65
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Shocker of a jobs report today from OZ. Just can't keep the Kiwi down!
    So the AUD?NZD xrate is driven more by the relative economic conditions between the 2 countries rather than a often loose correlation with milk prices.

    Medium to long term that is .... tomorrow something else will happen here or over there and there will be a short term blip up or down

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosie_900 View Post
    Get your 'Roos while you still can!

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...ll-flying-high

    Can't wait for the 'savage beating' the Kiwi should get soon. Me thinks one more tanking of milk prices and the RBNZ holding off rate hikes for the rest if the year should be the catalyst for the breaking of key support at 90 cents. After that, it's all downhill FAST imho.
    Bring it on!

  7. #67
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corporate View Post
    Bring it on!
    Hey just wait till we sell our house.... keen on shift a few 100k over to AUD etrade Call account ....then it can crash back to the low 80's
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  8. #68
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Stop losses to be hit moosie ....big time

    Was a few weeks ago but relates to today

    Bugger .... I live in a country with a weakening currency. No proud any more

    http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...will-trigger-w

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Stop losses to be hit moosie ....big time

    Was a few weeks ago but relates to today

    Bugger .... I live in a country with a weakening currency. No proud any more

    http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...will-trigger-w
    Hmmmm...doesn't look too flash does it ?
    My chart below seems to agree with Roger Kerr's statement.

    We don't want that 84c support breach resulting in a serious correction.....All markets work on the "availability of money" ...We have seen some money exiting NZ resulting of the softening of our markets...the election with an uncertain outcome doesn't help the NZ$ either..

    Last edited by Hoop; 21-08-2014 at 11:32 AM.

  10. #70
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Mr Kerr been talking down the NZD for a while now, even longer than moosie

    So much so one thinks he has an ulterior motive

    Going to be a bugger for the country if it drops to usd70/75 or lower ....and for me

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