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  1. #1
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    Default ANZ.NZX - Anyone holding?

    Hi all,

    New member here (and recent arrival to these shores).. and I wanted to know if anyone else here has any holdings in ANZ? I bought in a couple of weeks ago and am since already down 8%... but I cannot figure out why the price has been dropping. There hasn't been any news that I have seen or any particular reason for the price to decline.

    Any opinions would be appreciated.

    Thanks.

  2. #2
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    Take a look at the charts, you've got some pretty strong patterns in there from the last couple of years.
    You might need to average down to catch up to where you bought in at.

    Why a bank? Just interested

  3. #3
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    I've never been too keen on averaging down.. a habit built many years ago, but I might be tempted in this case.

    No particular reason for a bank, I just looked at the fundamentals of the company and decided it would be a good (first) investment on the NZX. Nothing has changed so I could be tempted to put some more money in, but in the past I have always been strict on cutting losses and usually sell if the price drops by 15%... I could be selling these sooner than I wanted!

  4. #4
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    Several reasons here:

    All the Aussie banks are a bit weaker than they were a couple of months ago. The usual reasons - SP's getting a bit rich; Aussie economy looking weaker; worries about an overheated property market; tougher capital adequacy rules may cause banks to cut/restrain divs to conserve capital, etc There's always a reason for some commentators to warn that the banks "good times" are coming to an end!

    There was a strong uptrend in the period prior to ANZ going ex div. 91cps.

    Disc: I've been accumulating the Aussie banks for over 25 years. Have an average cost for ANZ of around $5. Not selling at this stage.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Several reasons here:

    All the Aussie banks are a bit weaker than they were a couple of months ago. The usual reasons - SP's getting a bit rich; Aussie economy looking weaker; worries about an overheated property market; tougher capital adequacy rules may cause banks to cut/restrain divs to conserve capital, etc There's always a reason for some commentators to warn that the banks "good times" are coming to an end!

    There was a strong uptrend in the period prior to ANZ going ex div. 91cps.

    Disc: I've been accumulating the Aussie banks for over 25 years. Have an average cost for ANZ of around $5. Not selling at this stage.
    Good story Mcduffy ....testament to the theory it's better to own the bank than put you money in it


    Like you I've had ANZ for years, since last century. I don't even count them in my share portfolio, rather as just a long term deposit.

    The strong NZD hasn't helped mani over the last month or so either.
    Last edited by winner69; 17-12-2013 at 01:16 PM.

  6. #6
    born2invest
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    Quote Originally Posted by mani99 View Post
    already down 8%... but I cannot figure out why the price has been dropping
    It's called volatility.

    It happens occasionally with shares you know?

  7. #7
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    Thanks all... I think I may just stick with these for a while.

    One other thing, can anyone recommend the best place to get company financial details? At the moment I'm using Yahoo and ASB Securities. In the UK I used a broker which provided extensive information, winners/losers of the day, most traded stocks etc etc.

    Cheers.

  8. #8
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    I have been trading the Banks as well but ASX ones and the sector has gone up by almost 30% from June of this year and there will be lot of nervous hands that will take profit at this high levels. Even MQG Macquarie which is not part of the big four has gone up quite a bit. Both WBC and CBA are over 100B Market Cap a few days ago and even ANZ was about to join 100B club. Now only CBA is over 100B. Investors are waiting for some fundamentals to prop up this market for the next stage.

  9. #9
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    Yip, but bought in at around $25 a couple of years ago and haven't bought any since. I'm pretty keen on their Asia strategy. I was recently in Singapore and Vietnam and their presence there (well, ATM presence at least) was surprising.

    You can always compare it to their performance on the ASX - http://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?...rce=undefined;

    NZ listing seems to have gone down more relative to the ASX listing. But then the AUD cross has weakened significantly in the last week or two (circa 5%) so this could be priced into the NZ listing (i.e. you are holding assets based in Australia priced in NZ Dollars, when Aussie Dollar weakens your holding is worth less).

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by mani99 View Post
    Hi all,

    New member here (and recent arrival to these shores).. and I wanted to know if anyone else here has any holdings in ANZ? I bought in a couple of weeks ago and am since already down 8%... but I cannot figure out why the price has been dropping. There hasn't been any news that I have seen or any particular reason for the price to decline.

    Any opinions would be appreciated.

    Thanks.

    http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...t-rate-swap-co

  11. #11
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    Also aussie will be bringing capital requirements for banks... their decision might come out end of the week.

  12. #12
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    Why did you buy in the first place Manni99 ??

    Genuine question ..

  13. #13
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    Default ANZ performance in NZ

    I have been looking at the operating performance of ANZ in the New Zealand marketplace. It makes an interesting yardstick with that local bank Heartland.

    The problem with comparisons is that banks to not report their performance in an identical way. My particular measuring stick of choice at the moment is 'Operating Margin'. This is 'Operating Profit' divided by assets under management. I regard 'Operating Profit' as the same as Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT).

    If you turn to page 156 of AR2013, the 'Segment Result Before Tax' (EBT) for NZ operations is listed at $A1,219m. ( I will work in $A for the NZ operation because this is the currency used in in the Annual Report.) To get EBIT I have to add back an allowance for the core underlying bank debt.

    Total interest expense is shown in note 4 as $15,869m. But this includes interest payable to depositors. The underlying interest bill is only $4,789m.

    Where the allocation of corporate interest between segments is not specified, I prefer to allocate this in proportion to divisional revenue. Again using the information on page 156, New Zealand revenue is:

    $2,208m / $18,446m = 12% of the total.

    12% of $4,789m comes out to $574m

    Adding this to the NZ segment result gives me my EBIT figure.

    $1,219m + $579m = $1,793m

    Total NZ 'external assets' are listed on p156 as $85,229m.

    So the 'operating margin' based on assets in loans is:

    $1,793m / $85,229m = 2.104%

    I note that this is the operating margin, looking at the NZ business in its entireity.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 09-01-2014 at 04:40 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I have been looking at the operating performance of ANZ in the New Zealand marketplace. It makes an interesting yardstick with that local bank Heartland.









    My EBIT figure.

    $1,219m + $579m = $1,793m

    Total NZ 'external assets' are listed on p156 as $85,229m.

    So the 'operating margin' based on assets in loans is:

    $1,793m / $85,229m = 2.104%

    I note that this is the operating margin, looking at the NZ business in its entirety.
    For operating segment purposes, Heartland operates in four sectors:

    1/ Retail & Consumer
    2/ Business
    3/ Rural
    4/ Non core property

    ANZ have more categories in their breakdown of business units. I cannot say whether the ANZ categories, listed in AR2013 p127 dovetail neatly into the rather broader Heartland headings. But my best guess as to how they might be aligned is below:

    1/ Retail & Consumer includes 'Personal Lending'

    2/ Business includes 'Business Services', ''Electricity Gas and Water supply', 'Entertainment Leisure and Tourism', 'Financial Investment and Insurance', 'Government & Official Institutions', 'Manufacturing', 'Retail Trade', 'Transport and Storage', 'Wholesale Trade' 'Other' and 'Financial Investment and Insurance'.

    3/ Rural includes 'Agriculture forestry fishing and mining'

    4/ Non core property includes 'Construction' and 'Property Services'

    So how do the relative numbers stack up? Stay tuned.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  15. #15
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Lightbulb Work from the best source of data

    Snoopy: If you want to analyse the NZ part of ANZ why not work from the Disclosure Statements available at http://anz.co.nz/about-us/media-cent...r-information/

    If you are going to burrow into any other NZ banks they should have public DS as well.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 09-01-2014 at 05:11 PM. Reason: to 'be' or not to 'be'
    om mani peme hum

  16. #16
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    An interesting exercise, Snoopy, but not particularly helpful if your object is to compare the investment merits of the two banks. Whether you buy ANZ on the NZX or the ASX you're buying ANZ Group, the NZ business of which forms a minor - and decreasing - portion of revenue and profits. On the other hand, comparisons of the respective NZ businesses may offer some helpful insights into HNZ's prospects, providing that it's possible to take reasonable regard for the different business segments, sizes etc.

    Cheers

  17. #17
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    I am reminded of a friend of mine who used Macquaries research.Every three or four months they had a "new" "our preferred"
    bank.!! My friend's advisor told him to take no notice as the one he held {ANZ] would be "our preferred" bank again some time soon.
    ANZ is offcourse looking to Asia to drive growth.All four Australian banks have proved to be excellent investments.Although HNZ's model is a lot different , it will be interesting to see whether they can grow
    [from a small base] as well as, or out preform the Aussie banks.
    Update.My new advisor at Craig's rates ANZ as his preferred Australian bank.[at present]lol.
    Last edited by percy; 10-01-2014 at 08:34 AM.

  18. #18
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    I find these useful. KPMG has pulled the NZ components for you already..

    http://www.kpmg.com/NZ/en/IssuesAndI...-June-2013.pdf

  19. #19
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    I still hold ANZ,WBC and NAB but on the ASX Options. Im still long and I still believe we are just on a corrective phase right now and these big four are jockeying for position in the Aussie mortgage market since their real estate prices are picking up as well and RBA might not be thinking of raising rates as of yet. But aside from these big 4 banks dont forget MQG Macquarie since they might also surprise us with a strong boost in Share Price.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    An interesting exercise, Snoopy, but not particularly helpful if your object is to compare the investment merits of the two banks. Whether you buy ANZ on the NZX or the ASX you're buying ANZ Group, the NZ business of which forms a minor - and decreasing - portion of revenue and profits.
    Macduffy, you are quite right to point out that looking at the investment performance of ANZ in NZ is not that useful from an ANZ investor perspective. I do know this but didn't state it explicitly which I probably should have done.

    You aren't right about ANZ NZ being a decreasing area of profits for the whole group though. In FY2013,the profit (NPAT) contributed from NZ was $A881m out of a total profit of $6,272m. That represents 14% of total profits (AR2013 p156). Do the same exercise for FY2012 and the $A642m in profit from the $5,661m total represents only 11% of total profits. Looking into 2014 I can see the buoyant NZ economy,the rollover of the integration of the National bank and the rise in the $NZ/$A exchange rate providing a further big boost in earnings in $A terms. So contrary to what you suggest, NZ is actually the fastest growing profit (and revenue) region within the ANZ group and is getting more and more significant overall.

    On the other hand, comparisons of the respective NZ businesses may offer some helpful insights into HNZ's prospects, providing that it's possible to take reasonable regard for the different business segments, sizes etc.
    As you surmise this is the real reason for looking at the NZ section of ANZ in particular. But your point on making sure the sector by sector comparisons are valid is very relevant.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

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