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  1. #691
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grimy View Post
    Hopefully mine will turn up soon. My bank is ANZ....
    Interesting that your payment from ANZ to ANZ is tardy. I use different banks for different functions. I have found almost universally that payments between different banks are always faster to be processed than transferring money between accounts in the same bank!

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  2. #692
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grimy View Post
    Anyone got their dividend yet?
    I am reinvesting via bonus shares ... and received the confirmation for that already 2 days ago.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  3. #693
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    I looked into it a bit more this morning and I think it is my fault.
    Although my holding, bank details and payment instructions are all correct in Computershare, it seems I need to also advise ANZ through their investor page. So I have done that and will see what happens.
    Funnily enough I have some WBC as well and they paid me today without needing to do anything other than buy the shares.
    Snoopy-I have often found the same! Can be a bit random.

  4. #694
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post

    Skullduggery or not?

    UDC was put up for sale over the FY2017 financial year (before FY2017 accounts were published) but withdrawn from sale in FY2018 (after financial accounts were published). It would have been helpful to show the accounts in their best possible light leading up to any sale. So were the impairments at UDC for FY2017/FY2018 really that much lower? Or has some 'window dressing' gone on here? The sale of UDC has been put on indefinite ice, from 31st October 2018 (after balance date). So it will take until the FY2019 result at best for any 'window dressing', should it exist, at UDC to unwind.
    Had a brief look for the UDC (https://www.udc.co.nz/investing/index) results from FY2019. But with all debenture holders repaid, and UDC 100% ANZ Bank owned (from October 2019), I guess there is no need to pubish UDC's results any more?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 08-01-2020 at 09:41 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  5. #695
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Had a brief look for the UDC (https://www.udc.co.nz/investing/index) results from FY2019. But with all debenture holders repaid, and UDC 100% ANZ Bank owned (from October 2019), I guess there is no need to pubish UDC's results any more?

    SNOOPY
    That's it, Snoopy. A pity, we now won't have any finance company to compare Heartland with!


  6. #696
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Actually - I was not sure, whether I should include ANZ in my wee research job how good stockmarket analysts prediction are, but then - ANZ is NZX listed as well (even if I use A$ in my analysis) and researched by NZ analysts ... what could possibly go wrong?

    Predicting banks should be relatively easy - right, and in this case it was the consensus of 15 analysts. So - how good have their predictions been over the last 12 months? Here is the 5th review in my little series ...

    Stock: ANZ (using A$, though)
    Prediction month: January 2019
    Forecast month: January 2020

    Peak share price during prediction month A$26.19
    Consensus forecast $28.68
    achieved peak shareprice in forecast month $25.90 1% SP drop and 10% below forecast - but still - lets call this a pass, shall we?
    consensus recommendation outperform (8,2/10)
    actual 12 month growth vs NZX50 underperformed NZX50 by 27% PREDICTION FAIL

    Rating of the analysts so far:

    5 stocks checked (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
    predictions correct: 2
    predictions wrong: 8
    analyst hitrate so far: 20%

    Hmm ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #697
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Actually - I was not sure, whether I should include ANZ in my wee research job how good stockmarket analysts prediction are, but then - ANZ is NZX listed as well (even if I use A$ in my analysis) and researched by NZ analysts ... what could possibly go wrong?

    Predicting banks should be relatively easy - right, and in this case it was the consensus of 15 analysts. So - how good have their predictions been over the last 12 months? Here is the 5th review in my little series ...

    Stock: ANZ (using A$, though)
    Prediction month: January 2019
    Forecast month: January 2020

    Peak share price during prediction month A$26.19
    Consensus forecast $28.68
    achieved peak shareprice in forecast month $25.90 1% SP drop and 10% below forecast - but still - lets call this a pass, shall we?
    consensus recommendation outperform (8,2/10)
    actual 12 month growth vs NZX50 underperformed NZX50 by 27% PREDICTION FAIL
    BP, I don't wish to defend brokers in general or any particular broker. And I am not saying that I would have done better myself betting where particular companies in the market would have gone over 2019 by stating my own position on January 1st 2019. But thinking back just over a year:

    1/ I was fairly sure interest rates had bottomed (and that turned out to be wrong). Perhaps as a result, the property market was stronger than expected.
    2/ I also note that in Australia, the Australian Government Royal Commission report into potential misconduct in Banking and Financial Institutions was published in February 2019.
    3/ I also recall our own Reserve Bank Governor making announcements about the increased capital that NZ registered banks would be expected to hold in the future.

    All of these things, I would have thought, would have made a great difference to a bank's capital allocations and interest margins during the year. Are you saying that the views of our analysts should have been able to correctly anticipate the timing and magnitude of these events? IIRC correctly most analysts were predicting a sombre 2019 with a recovery in 2020. It looks now as if the opposite might be happening. I guess what I am saying is, if the analysts got the underlying financial climate wrong, is it any surprise that their prediction for ANZ turned out to be wrong?

    I am also unsure as to how you got your view that "Predicting banks should be relatively easy."

    Finally why have you selected a one year time frame for your 'broker assessment' exercise when most broker recommend portfolios should surely be structured to operate over significantly a longer time frame than that, precisely for the reason that picking what happens to one share in one year is a very volatile exercise?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-02-2020 at 12:18 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  8. #698
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    BP, I don't wish to defend brokers in general or any particular broker. And I am not saying that I would have done better myself betting where particular companies in the market would have gone over 2019 by stating my own position on January 1st 2019. But thinking back just over a year:

    1/ I was fairly sure interest rates had bottomed (and that turned out to be wrong). Perhaps as a result, the property market was stronger than expected.
    2/ I also note that in Australia, the Australian Government Royal Commission report into potential misconduct in Banking and Financial Institutions was published in February 2019.
    3/ I also recall our own Reserve Bank Governor making announcements about the increased capital that NZ registered banks would be expected to hold in the future.

    All of these things, I would have thought, would have made a great difference to a bank's capital allocations and interest margins during the year. Are you saying that the views of our analysts should have been able to correctly anticipate the timing and magnitude of these events? IIRC correctly most analysts were predicting a sombre 2019 with a recovery in 2020. It looks now as if the opposite might be happening. I guess what I am saying is, if the analysts got the underlying financial climate wrong, is it any surprise that their prediction for ANZ turned out to be wrong?

    I am also unsure as to how you got your view that "Predicting banks should be relatively easy."

    Finally why have you selected a one year time frame for your 'broker assessment' exercise when most broker recommend portfolios should surely be structured to operate over significantly a longer time frame than that, precisely for the reason that picking what happens to one share in one year is a very volatile exercise?

    SNOOPY
    Hi Snoopy, good questions.

    BTW - ANZ is only one piece of the puzzle - here is my (hopefully growing) summary:
    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts

    My (not quite serious) comment that banks might be easier to forecast than some other companies ... well, they typically do have a long history and a known market. Makes it easier to predict their future path for analysts than e.g. trying to guess the consensus for ERD or GTK or any other so called growth company.

    What I want to find out is whether there is any statistical relevance in analyst forecasts and recommendations. So far it looks like the correlation between forecast and outcome might be - if any - negative, but I only started.

    I am sure we can find for each individual forecasts a bunch of excuses why they didn't eventuate, but if we need to do this for the majority of all forecasts, than what would be the point of looking at them anyway?

    However - I don't want to jump the gun ... and of the 5 forecasts I looked into so far, ANZ for the last 12 months was actually one of the closest (most accurate). Might be the best it gets, but we will see. With most other stocks analysts had in January 2019 absolutely no clue what will happen with the stock in 12 months.

    Time frame: 12 months makes sense because this is the "consensus "time frame" (share price in 12 months) - i.e. it is easy for me to get the numbers, but sure - I could use any other time frame, it just would make it for me more difficult to find out what the analysts predicted e.g. 5 or 10 years ago.

    As well - the relevance of the quality of the forecasts is obviously dropping if we look at longer time frames. If we find out that analysts have been say 5, 10 or 20 years ago really good in predicting the long term performance of stocks (I doubt it), then how would that help us today? Historically interesting, but different stocks, different analysts and different methods.

    Anyway - good to get some feedback - cheers.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

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