sharetrader
Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 56
  1. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    49

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by born2invest View Post
    To be quite honest. I couldn't care less what a squiggly line on a screen is doing.
    I haven't started investing so don't have any 'real world' experience but have started reading up on technical analysis and am interested to hear opinions on it. I was wondering do you find your decisions at this stage more based off fundamental analysis ? and at this stage of your investing journey what makes you shy away from technical analysis ?

  2. #22
    born2invest
    Guest

    Default

    I was wondering do you find your decisions at this stage more based off fundamental analysis?
    I think my previous comment referring to technical analysis as a squiggly line makes it pretty clear.

    at this stage of your investing journey what makes you shy away from technical analysis
    Because I invest in companies, not a line on a screen.

  3. #23
    born2invest
    Guest

    Default

    squiggly lines giving big warning signals.
    Please explain.

  4. #24
    born2invest
    Guest

    Default

    I'm not particularly interested in using technical analysis but I do like to expand my knowledge and know the basics of it.

    Ok thanks I'll get some out from the library as it is always good to seek opposing views.

  5. #25
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    272

    Default

    Born dont think of it as a squiggly line, more of the patterns of buying and selling by people because that is what makes it. Isn't the juglar/business cycles a squiggly line?

  6. #26
    born2invest
    Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Wolf View Post
    Born dont think of it as a squiggly line, more of the patterns of buying and selling by people because that is what makes it. Isn't the juglar/business cycles a squiggly line?
    It is a business cycle. So yes, I suppose it is a form of charting/technical analysis. I chose the 7 year timeframe because 5 seemed too short and 10 too long. It made obvious sense to correlate it to the business cycle also.

  7. #27
    born2invest
    Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    Warren Buffet has two rules of investing.
    #1 Don't lose money
    #2 Don't forget Rule #1

    TA is the best tool you have in order to ensure you don't lose money. I find it essential in protecting my capital, and minimising my risk. Combining FA (to choose stocks) with TA (to determine buy/sell timing) makes for super charged portfolio returns (at least in my experience). My biggest regret in life is not understanding the benefits of TA sooner, as I would have a **** load more money right now!
    Buffett doesn't use technical analysis. Look at his purchases and then compare it to the charts of Coca Cola where he bought after the stock had risen substantially the prior few years. Look at Washinton Post where the stock declined 30-40% and stayed there for a year or so before he finally broke even after around 2 years.
    Last edited by born2invest; 20-12-2013 at 03:14 PM.

  8. #28
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,222

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by born2invest View Post
    Since my first investment in early 2010 in RYM I've felt I've developed my investment skills immensely and continue to read and learn everyday. I've found that learning the basics of investing is the easy part. Controlling your emotions and acting with a clear, logical thought process is the hardest part to master. Not getting caught up in the "hot" opportunities of the day and sticking to what you know is the best lesson I've learnt along the way. i.e. not investing in momentum stocks, technology or mining companies but sticking to basic easy to understand industries like debt collection, truck/bus parts, banks, insurance, paints, retirement homes, ports, transport companies and all those boring (but profitable) things.
    born2invest, I have been reading your investment diary on this thread with great interest. I have held 'big bank' shares over the last ten years based on the general logic that banks seems to do well in good times and bad and have tended to have dividend yields that outperform their own term deposits. However, I have never claimed to have understood bank shares and have spent are large amount of time over the last two years trying to do so.

    I am pleased for you that you have grouped three classes of financial shares in the 'easy' basket. But I do wonder if your intellect is so much greater than mine (which in fairness I admit it may be) or whether you are showing just a touch of youthful exuberance with say your CCP investment. I go back on this forum to the days of the late Gerry Stolwyk who was a huge enthusiast in the finance (subset debt collection) sector. I missed out on the Baycorp boom (the hot share in this sector at the time, but one I didn't understand) but also missed out on the subsequent bust.
    Collection House in Australia I recall charted a similar path. I wonder how CCP today compares with those two historic examples?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 21-12-2013 at 06:28 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  9. #29
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,738

    Default

    Snoopy - if you want to remind you of Gerry's exciting times I posted the old charts of CLH and CCP as well as RMG on the CCP thread (Page 8)

    He was a good joker that Gerry

    http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...&highlight=ccp

  10. #30
    born2invest
    Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    born2invest, I have been reading your investment diary on this thread with great interest. I have held 'big bank' shares over the last ten years based on the general logic that banks seems to do well in good times and bad and have tended to have dividend yields that outperform their own term deposits. However, I have never claimed to have understood bank shares and have spent are large amount of time over the last two years trying to do so.

    I am pleased for you that you have grouped three classes of financial shares in the 'easy' basket. But I do wonder if your intellect is so much greater than mine (which in fairness I admit it may be) or whether you are showing just a touch of youthful exuberance with say your CCP investment. I go back on this forum to the days of the late Gerry Stolwyk who was a huge enthusiast in the finance (subset debt collection) sector. I missed out on the Baycorp boom (the hot share in this sector at the time, but one I didn't understand) but also missed out on the subsequent bust.
    Collection House in Australia I recall charted a similar path. I wonder how CCP today compares with those two historic examples?

    SNOOPY
    Easy to understand for me basically means can I explain:

    - how the business makes money to a 5 year old child?
    (Yes, they buy bills people can't pay for less money and then try to get the full amount of the bill back for more money)

    - Will the industry definitely be around in 10 years time?
    (Yes, I worked at ASB for two years and the amount of people that have personal loans and maxed out credit cards is not uncommon, I don't see this changing anytime soon)

    I don't claim to know the finer points of debt collection or the finer points of complicated banking equations. But I can understand the basic points of how they make money and if their product or services are likely to be around in the future.
    Last edited by born2invest; 23-12-2013 at 07:32 AM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •