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  1. #21
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    It was some frontier markets which had some resilient to some of the biggest drops recently. However both developed and emerging markets have outperformed the frontiers markets during last two days. It is very interesting. What a day was for USA stocks. It was a day for Nikkei 225 as well. Some of the top winners were Boeing and ATHN: US and 9501: JP

    In any market there are different type of market players such as hedge funds, high net worth individuals, professionals, day traders, short term players, long term investors, investment banks, different type of financial instrument players, small players, insurance companies and other financial institutions etc. Some are for long term horizon and some don’t have any strategy. Some can move money in and out quickly and it can affect for some stocks in the short run. Those with good experience and skills have done well in emerging and frontier markets. Some of the funds which exposure to Asian markets such as Aberdeen, Franklin Templeton Investment Funds, and IFC have long term view on these markets and they don’t act like grasshoppers. They have done their serious study on markets. There are few global frontier emerging funds including some foreign partners also there for long tern serious business. I have seen even top investors, investment banks and other funds have invested and traded in these emerging and frontier markets. .

    If we analyse global markets almost everybody make mistakes. Either they will sell too early and buy late. Sometimes some market players could become panic suddenly. On the other hand intelligent market players know what they are doing. For example there were huge sell off in South Asian markets before 2009. I can remember even some hedge funds liquidated their funds. After those selling we saw one the best bull markets in Sri-Lanka in 2010 and 2011. Similarly Indian sensex went up from around 12,000 to over 20,000 levels in 2010 after fire sales. When we analyse some developed markets such as USA and UK there were fire sales in some bank stocks before 2009. I was following CITI Group more than BAC. Fire sales and panic create opportunities for intelligent long term players. I also can remember some Japanese housewives put their valuable money in AUD when it was going down and they lost heavily. Later they missed the biggest rally in AUD during last couple of years. Who knows they may buy now. Markets are full of risks and returns. In some situation it is better to forget short term volatility in some markets to reap long term benefits.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 08-02-2014 at 08:40 PM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  2. #22
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    At this time of writing china stocks rises one month high. They are having nice day today. Asian and Russian stocks have become very attractive now. Some short sellers probably have lost betting against S & P 500. Surprisingly New Zealand market ended in negative territory today. At this moment both Pakistan and Sri-Lanka markets also in red. Emerging market crisis is just a talk. Declines in stocks, bonds and currencies are a buying opportunity. At the moment some small markets are having troubles due to short term events. They too will go up sooner than later. Today’s some undervalued red markets also are a buying opportunity.

    There were so many crisis such as banking crisis, credit crisis and property crisis etc during last couple of years. Still we saw bull markets in crisis hit countries such as UAE, Pakistan, Japan, UK and USA. Similarly tapering is not the end of the world. It is good for the global economy in the mid and long term. Just like other crisis speculation on tapering also create opportunities even in emerging markets. Crises are opportunities for intelligent market players.

    Where can we expect bull market in 2014 and 2015?

    Finally could we expect bull market in Bangladesh after underperforming other markets in Asia Pacific region in 2012 and 2013?

    http://www.dsebd.org/index.php

    Could we expect bull market in Sri-Lanka too in 2014 and 2015?

    http://www.ft.lk/2014/02/07/2014-turning-p...michael-preiss/

    2014 turning point for Lanka’s equity market: Michael Preiss

    What about Estonia?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-24/e...k-finances.html

    Estonia’s Credit Rating Affirmed by S&P on GDP Outlook, Finances

    What about Indian market testing all time high again?

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000...291821969478830

    Indian Stock Market Set to Climb in 2014

    What about Pakistan? Will it repeat the bull into 2014?

    Will Philippine market test their all time high again? Will it repeat the bull into 2014?

    http://www.interaksyon.com/business/80293/...bsp-holds-rates

    PH stock market returns above 6,000-mark after Wall St. Gains, BSP holds rates

    Mark Mobius experienced investor is also bullish on some emerging and frontier markets.

    Have a nice day!

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

  3. #23
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    Agree that tapering is good for the market mid to long term--but IMO it will cause pain in the meantime when it really gets going.
    I believe you would have to have a long term plan, or when the turn comes (if it does) cash up and wait.
    The markets have been on life support for a long while now.
    There may well be an addiction problem that may involve a ''market reset'' or even possibly a (god forbid) one off tax on assets.
    Time for caution

  4. #24
    Advanced Member Valuegrowth's Avatar
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    Thank you Skid for your comment.

    Developed markets in Asia Pacific region such as Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia had a good day today and there are lot of opinions on theses sudden uptrend.

    Emerging markets and frontier markets in Asia also are having nice day today exception are Malaysian and Sri-Lankan markets. Both markets are down at this moment. It is very interesting. When all Asian markets are up, few markets such as Pakistan and Sri-Lankan markets etc had either volatility or down trend during last couple of days. I feel like studying specific behaviour pattern relevant to selected markets that I am following. Asian consumer staples story is in intact. We could see mega trends in this sector in Asia in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier world in the coming years.

    In the meantime European stock futures rose. In commodity market there are some supports for energy based commodities. It is also very interesting.

    So far Federal Reserve Chair
    Janet Yellen is doing a great and marvelous job.Definitely she is going to follow market friendly policy and this is good for global stock markets. This doesn't mean overvalued markets continuously could go up in the coming years. Some expect that they could delay the tapering. Tapering could benefit some industries more than others in Asian pacific region.

    According to following link they don’t have preset course for tapering. They could have gradual plan and who knows in some period they could stop tapering whenever they see some weakness in the economy.

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-p...tary-strategy/

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 12-02-2014 at 09:25 PM. Reason: To adjust a word

  5. #25
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    What a beautiful Friday was for DOW, S & P 500, and my favourite NASDAQ. Now the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is within 10 points of its all-time high. Nasdaq is up for sixth straight day. It looks like just like people like to eat chicken they like to taste some soup as well. Consumers could taste more and more hot beverages too in the coming decade. Campbell soup Company is doing well. Simple people like simple companies. It is not too big to fall. Both Hyatt Hotels Corp and Campbell soup became market movers. It is good to see new market movers in markets. Other wise market could become boring. We could see new market movers time to time in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets in the coming years. It is time to identify new market movers before others. It was not a Good Friday for Japanese stocks. In Indian market Tata motors rose more than 3%. In New Zealand Sky City, Telecom, Trade me and OceanaGold stocks etc outperformed other stocks on Friday. We could see some sudden surge in Chinese stocks.

    As I said before some pullbacks are opportunities and we should not ignore any market. Because when the bull starts we could miss the train. Many missed the train in the USA, Greece, UAE, UK, Germany, New Zealand, Australia, Philippines and Vietnam etc. Some trains are closer to their current destination and next destination could begin after 2015.These days some frontier markets are having pullbacks. In the meantime I still maintain that we could expect some sort of correction in overvalued markets including stock market in UAE in 2014. Therefore some sort of rotation is very important. There are plenty of undervalued markets, sectors, commodities and currencies in the world. These are great opportunities and some could have life time opportunities. I believe some frontier and emerging stocks, currencies and their commodities are very attractive on valuations now. Mid term and long term players could benefit lot.

    Most of the market players will follow today’s hot stocks and nobody wants to do study on out of favour hidden gems. We could gain some capital gain by identifying correct markets, sectors, currencies and stocks before others. Markets, commodities, stocks and currencies never stay in the same place. Normally many will avoid sick ones. They will go behind hot ones. When sick become healthy it could become too hot and all will go behind it. Many invest through funds and ADRs in emerging and frontier markets although there are opportunities of direct investment in firms or sectors in those economies. Direct investment has flexibility to pick stocks. On other hand funds invest only stocks known by foreigners. So they miss some of the outstanding companies in markets. 10 years back XERO was a hidden gem. Not many funds wanted to try this beautiful company with beautiful story. Profitable investments can be made by taking a long term investment perspective. Any business takes time to establish and expand.

    Just like human beings we should identify personality of the market that we are following. Different market and different stocks have different personality. If we apply correct strategy while having patience and discipline then we are already right in our first stage. In commodity market we can see some sudden surge in silver. Volatility could be normal in the coming years. Still asset prices could go up in the coming decade.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 15-02-2014 at 02:34 PM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  6. #26
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    Just like we had some opportunities in emerging and developed markets sell off we could have some great opportunity in some undervalued frontier markets now. Some frontier markets in Africa and Asia are having pullback and volatility now. It is very interesting. It looks like after strong rally both Pakistan and Vietnam markets are searching for new direction. We could see some correction in 2014 in above two markets as well. In the meantime Chinese stocks are shinning. AUD is hovering around 90c. It is very interesting year for global stock, commodity and currency market in 2014. There could be opportunities and setbacks. At some point even we could see correction in developed markets. UAE market too is looking for direction now. Once we see correction in some developed markets, Will market players take some of their funds to Africa, Asia and South America? Will Brazil shine again? There are so many ways to analyse global markets. Value masters could hide in their great value businesses with great potential in the coming decade. In the meantime the Nasdaq Composite rose for an eighth straight session. NASDAQ too could have correction. In the long run it will shine never before. We can see mixed signals in commodity market. Oil has some short term support now. Soya bean prices could come down more than corn in 2014 and 2015. Beef prices could stay high in 2014. There is a possibility global tea and coffee output could come down in 2014 and 2015. The USA could produce more oil in the future. 2014 is a good period for grain elevators and meat producers. Countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Netherlands and the USA could benefit lot. Once we see lower NZD and AUD some industries could have rapid growth in Australasia.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 19-02-2014 at 07:04 PM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  7. #27
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    What a week of volatility for global markets? We also saw some sell off in stock markets. Now we are in the stage of volatility in all types of markets. These are normal events not only in stock markets but also in other markets such as commodity and currency market. As I said before volatility could become normal in the coming decade. Why do worry about volatility if you could find great businesses before others. We had credit crisis, banking crisis, property crisis, currency crisis and commodity crisis etc in the past. Didn’t markets recover later? Market volatility, pull backs, crash, correction or other types of crisis bring opportunity for other players. Latest noise is tapering. Markets could go down not because of tapering but because of market cycles, and other factors such as over valuation and panic etc. Even tapering is very good for certain industries including Asian export companies. In the meantime Chinese consumers bought over 20 million vehicles in 2013. It is the world’s second-largest auto market. Boeing expects to deliver 140 planes to China in 2014. . Not bad.

    There are lot of noises in global markets. They say some top players are betting against S&P 500 and they love put options. According to some they want to forget emerging markets and should look for frontier markets because they are still rising. Some say frontier markets are very attractive. Not all frontier markets are rising. Even in frontier markets we cannot expect bull markets from each and every market at once.Those markets which had bull markets could have correction. Some could build their base before their great bull markets. Some frontier markets could have volatility and pull backs before their bull market. Some frontier markets could have bull markets instantly.

    In the currency market, the pound had its biggest weekly decline against the dollar in three months. Meanwhile Italy’s 10 year government bonds advanced for a fourth week. I found following interesting article on NZD.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11204126

    Inside Money: An Irish view of the NZ dollar


    In commodity markets I just looked at some of the following forecasts. Corn prices could drop to an average of $3.90 a bushel in the 2014-2015 marketing year from $4.50 the previous 12 month. Soybean prices could average around $9.65 a bushel, down from $12.70 a bushel in 2013-2014, while wheat is seen averaging $5.30 a bushel versus $6.80 the previous year. Cotton prices will fall to 68 cents a pound, down from 76 cents in 2013-2014. Some are expecting grain prices to fall five year lows. According to latest forecast, soybeans, plantings should set an all-time high of 79.5m acres. Who’s right about corn prices? There is considerable difference of opinion about the prospects for future corn prices. According to the USDA projections that the average farm price of corn will be around $3.50 for the next five years. The current futures market indicates average corn price between $4.40 and $4.50 over the next four years. Other projections are very extreme and expect corn price below $ 2.80 for the next five years. More about other commodities, bull currencies and bull markets later.

    Finally let us find new market movers, bull markets, bull sectors, bull commodities, bull currencies and bull stocks in the coming years in global markets. 2014 could be year of another opportunity. Have a nice week end.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.
    Last edited by Valuegrowth; 23-02-2014 at 01:13 AM. Reason: To adjust a sentence.

  8. #28
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Marketwinner

    Would now be a good time to get some exposure to the Ukraine stockmarket

    Seems to have rock bottom and only one way to go now .....up
    Last edited by winner69; 23-02-2014 at 06:53 AM.

  9. #29
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    Applying a buy & hold strategy with the Ukraine stockmarket index in 2007 kinda looks like a fail...eh?


  10. #30
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    I did say rock bottom hoop

    Based on history (recent) could quadruple in a short time

    Marketwinner - what you think

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