Global market update!

[Valuegrowth]

Hello Winner69

You are very clever. When others are trying to downgrade and when they have political problems and economic crisis you are looking for opportunities. You are thinking out of the box. I know you can become one of the best market players in the world. All the best. Some crises are great opportunities for intelligent market players. I have not done much study on Ukraine market. Before we go to any market we need some study. Remember other long term investors and specific funds have done their home work. Some sell off are temporary. Rather than finding bottom of the market it is better to identify and study stages in markets, great value and future prospects etc. That also depends on the strategy. What about betting on Ukraine debt? Mark Mobius talked about Ukraine at the end of 2013.

Besides I would like to concentrate in few markets in Asia Pacific region now. I would like to deal with known devils than unknown devils in 2014. In addition, I love only specific sectors in few markets that I am following. They are going to have mega developments in the coming decade.

Basically I don’t pay much attention to these downgrades and upgrades. During last two years there were down grades for stocks in NASDAQ that I was following. They have gone up by more than 100% now. Beauty is after down grading, fundamental of some of the companies that I am following has improved vastly. It is going to improve further in the coming years. I would like to concentrate on few markets now. So that it will make me easy to manage my portfolio. My portfolio can last from one month to 10 years. In some case they can last beyond 20 years. When I find outstanding companies I will reduce or dispose my current holdings. We cannot measure performance of companies within one year. At least we should monitor six years. This is how and where we find more than 10 baggers. So we can forget volatility and noises in global markets. I am developing my strategy not to do anything to my stocks in the short run once I bought them. This where I make mistakes most. Therefore I have to improve my stocks picking strategy. I am not with current hot stocks and I am with future winners now. One thing once any frontier market become very bullish we cannot stop it. I reasonably expect very bullish March. Have a nice day!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

Intelligent market players could have opportunities in all types of markets provided they do home work. Global market behaviour in February was mixed. We saw volatility; sell off, some of the biggest one day drops and some of the biggest one day ups. Even some markets had all time high. Markets go up and down in stages. Some markets are closer to the top and some markets are about to begin their bull. When compare with developed and emerging markets frontier market performed poorly in February. Of course they had some volatility. Month of March could be different ball game.

If I am correct Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank may change its strategy for reducing asset purchases if they see weakness in the economy. She has very sensible and responsible approach to the global economy and markets. So far S&P 500 up 175 percentfrom a 12-year low. Not bad. Emerging market stocks advanced 3.2 percent in February, the first monthly gain since October. As I said before we should not ignore any market. Friday was a very good day for Asian pacific markets. We saw strong rally in developed, emerging and frontier markets there. Global stocks, bonds and commodities rose together in February for the first time in seven months. Asian stocks completed the first monthly advance since October. Sofar New Zealand market is doing well.

In the commodity market we can see some surge in some commodity prices due to short term factors. In the meantime the euro gained against 14 of its 16 main peers. NZD still has its short term strength due to short term factors. Sooner than later it could become one of the bear currencies in the world.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

Current situation could create another great opportunity. Global stocks fall yesterday. In the meantime Chinese stock market was a clear winner yesterday together with commodity market. In Asian pacific region stocks Markets such New Zealand, Pakistan and Thailand were resilient. Some frontier markets too were resilient globally. I believe some frontier markets could have some limelight in the near future due to new development.

Both Ukraine and Russian markets went down very badly. Ukraine crisis has taken seriously at least for the short run. I don’t think this will develop like crisis in Middle East. These are short term events. If war continues for the next five years to ten years still there could be great demand for some products including selected commodities.

We are seeing some surge in commodity prices due to short term factors. Even if we see some settlement to Ukrainian crisis still there could be opportunities in some commodities globally. We may see shortage or lower inventory in some commodities towards end of this year. As I said before we should not ignore any market and even some commodities.

In the currency market the Ruble went down more than 1 percent against the dollar. US dollar got some life again.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

Emerging markets hard currency debt was the best performing fixed-income asset class in February despite some political tensions in several countries, especially Ukraine and Russia. . Institutional investors are back in the business while retail investors that continue to exit emerging markets bond funds. I think EM FX, rates and credit have become cheap enough to attract interest from non-dedicated EM investors. Indian shares rallied to record highs on Friday. We cannot expect fully-fledged war between Russia and Ukraine. There was some relaxation in recent market tensions over Ukraine. Just like some investors and other market players who over reacted to India on Indian rupee and worries there, this time too they over reacted to the Ukraine situation. We saw temporary rise in prices of some commodities despite higher inventory level and expected higher supply in 2014. This situation created some opportunity for some market players. MSCI's emerging markets index is headed for the fifth straight week of gains. Indian markets posted their biggest weekly gain since early 2013. On the other hand picture was gloomier in emerging Europe.

South Asian region should do well in the coming months. Already Pakistan had one of the best bull markets in the world. Along with India, frontier markets such as Bangladesh and Sri-lanka too are looking for market direction now. In short some emerging and frontier markets in Asia especially south Asia should outperform other emerging and frontier markets in the coming months due to new development. Similarly there could be some opportunities in some sectors in developed markets. In the meantime the dollar climbed on Friday. Actually dollar rose to six week high versus Yen. Asian currencies too had the best week since September 2012. There is a speculation that the Federal Reserve will slow further stimulus cuts. We have to wait and see. Have a nice week end!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

We are seeing more volatility in all types of markets. Even in volatile markets some sectors, commodities, currencies, stocks and markets could outperform others. On Friday Indonesian market was a clear winner in the Asia and Pacific Region. It went up by more than 3%. Argentinean market in South America too had a good day. Markets in India, Pakistan and were steady. Nikkei fell more than 3%. There could be some bull markets in South Asia, South America and East Asia sooner than later due to new development.

We have to wait and see effects of increased OCR (The Official Cash rate) in New Zealand. There could be short term support for NZD. It also could affect export sector negatively if NZD stay high. Despite increase in interest rate still I maintain my bearishness on NZD. Sooner than later other developed markets too will increase their OCR. I believe interest rate policy could affect negatively or positively to the economy depend on the situation at that particular time. There are so many ways to control higher housing prices than making use of interest rate. If interest rates stay vey high in the short run we may see many mortgage defaulters. As a result of this scenario we may even see housing crisis in some countries. Because we should not forget about fragility of the housing market globally. In some situation interest rate could become mass of destruction.

In the Agri commodity market both corn and soya bean didn’t have strong support this week except wheat which had good support. Globally we could see more grain harvest in the second half of this year. Among commodity future contracts livestock futures are having less volatility and they are in a clear uptrend. Most of other commodities are having volatility and they are in down trend except sudden surge in few commodities due to short term factors. Despite short term Ukraine crisis Oil prices are weak.

In the meantime Ireland’s 10-year securities went up for a ninth week as the nation auctioned its first bonds since 2010.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[SimonHouse]

I believe interest rate policy could affect negatively or positively to the economy depend on the situation at that particular time.

Forgive me for questioning your good intentions in providing us market updates, but how is this helpful to us? It actually says nothing at all.

[Valuegrowth]

@SimonHouse

Thank you for your opinion and ideas.

[SimonHouse]

@SimonHouse

Thank you for your opinion and ideas.

@Marketwinner (who else)

I was hoping I'd get more of an answer than that. You appear to be posting a lot of stuff that tries to be wise but is meaningless gibberish. How about some actual analysis rather than "Pakistan is up and things might change there"?

[Valuegrowth]

We all know that there are business cycle, stock and marketcycles. Similarly at some point I expectcorrection in Pakistan market as well. Iwould like to discuss more about interest rate and interest swaps in the futureonce I learn more about it. I hope somebody might open a thread on OCR or on interestrate in the future. On valuations even some Chinese stocks are cheap now. We needto do some study to identify Undervalued markets, sectors, stocks, commodities,currencies and other assets globally.
My ideas arenot a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[SimonHouse]

We all know that there are business cycle, stock and marketcycles. Similarly at some point I expectcorrection in Pakistan market as well. Iwould like to discuss more about interest rate and interest swaps in the futureonce I learn more about it. I hope somebody might open a thread on OCR or on interestrate in the future. On valuations even some Chinese stocks are cheap now. We needto do some study to identify Undervalued markets, sectors, stocks, commodities,currencies and other assets globally.
My ideas arenot a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

yeah sorry I asked. you are posting a load of nonsense and empty phrases without any substance.

You can stop posting the final line about how your ideas are not a recommendation, you aren't actually posting any ideas. Just meaningless nonsense.