Young fullah on board

[samdaman]

Just checking back in, I've started looking at some companies and sifted through some numbers and I'm seeing some strange results (could be normal but hey I'm new) I looked at WHS and AIA. I used two different spreadsheets to get a vague idea of their values and both came back with roughly around 9.5ish for AIA and the low 2's for WHS. Now I'm starting to think I'm not calculating things like growth accurately. Do these numbers sound correct? I ask because the Morningstar have them both priced at around their current stock values. More complex formulas possibly? Any interpretation of these results will be greatly appreciated

Cheers

[born2invest]

Just checking back in, I've started looking at some companies and sifted through some numbers and I'm seeing some strange results (could be normal but hey I'm new) I looked at WHS and AIA. I used two different spreadsheets to get a vague idea of their values and both came back with roughly around 9.5ish for AIA and the low 2's for WHS. Now I'm starting to think I'm not calculating things like growth accurately. Do these numbers sound correct? I ask because the Morningstar have them both priced at around their current stock values. More complex formulas possibly? Any interpretation of these results will be greatly appreciated

Cheers

What data and assumptions did you input?

Growth, terminal value, etc.

[samdaman]

What data and assumptions did you input?

Growth, terminal value, etc.

earnings per share growth, payout ratio, COE

[born2invest]

Yes what figures did you use?

[Harvey Specter]

Any interpretation of these results will be greatly appreciated

Cheers

Its hard to review a model without actually seeing the model - not that I am volunteering.

It could be anything - inputs, assumptions, calculations or just a simple formula error.

[samdaman]

Yes what figures did you use?

Ill use AIA as an example,

EPS: 0.12
Growth: 4% (redid with 3% and it still came out with a value of 5.2)
COE: 5.37 (using dividend growth of 2%)

with a 2% growth it comes out closer to morningstars valuation however unless I've calculated that too low wouldn't 2% be on the light side for AIA?

[born2invest]

Ill use AIA as an example,

EPS: 0.12
Growth: 4% (redid with 3% and it still came out with a value of 5.2)
COE: 5.37 (using dividend growth of 2%)

with a 2% growth it comes out closer to morningstars valuation however unless I've calculated that too low wouldn't 2% be on the light side for AIA?

EPS is 0.1134 so not sure where you got your 0.12 from (rounding perhaps?)
Growth of 4% seems reasonable
I would suggest you find a model that doesn't use cost of equity (COE), weighted average cost of capital (WACC), risk free rates, beta co-efficient, etc this just complicated the crap out of things.

I just created my own spreadsheet in excel that I go off, would you like me to email it through to you?

[samdaman]

EPS is 0.1134 so not sure where you got your 0.12 from (rounding perhaps?)
Growth of 4% seems reasonable
I would suggest you find a model that doesn't use cost of equity (COE), weighted average cost of capital (WACC), risk free rates, beta co-efficient, etc this just complicated the crap out of things.

I just created my own spreadsheet in excel that I go off, would you like me to email it through to you?

yea the .12 must have been rounded i got it from the bottom of the morningstar report rather than the last reported value as I was unsure which was more current or applicable. If you don't mind doing that I'd be happy to check out your spreadsheet, as you say a few of the spreadsheets I have looked at require some very complicated and seemingly tough to pick inputs