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  1. #76
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    Yes me too , one of my itchy fingers wants to do a pocket dial and average down .

  2. #77
    Member Pumice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yes me too , one of my itchy fingers wants to do a pocket dial and average down .
    Ditto.
    If it gives you any confidence, Mulpha & Aveo Chairman Seng Lee has acquired almost 9m shares at an ave of $1.89 taking their holding from 22.86% to 24.38% in a little over a month

    No idea what they paid for the other 132.8m shares

  3. #78
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    Mulpha ARE the worry for me , i dont trust them and their agendas and their incestuous relationship with Aveo.

  4. #79
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    S/P $1.57 atm, wish id averaged down on this one.

    Stockland to sell all retirement assets , see portfolio plus post below. I vouch for his integrity.



    "Word on the street suggests that just before Xmas SGP appointed Morgan Stanley to sell its entire retirement portfolio. There are more than a few observatons to make here.

    Have SGP lost interest in the retirement industry and its ultra low return on assets? Could be. At a tad over 4% EBIT/net Retirement Assets they performed worse than AOG in FY18 who returned close to 4.7%. But these figures are way behind the returms they are used to getting in their residential, commercial and logistics divisions.

    Do they see problems and hassles ahead? Possibly. The RC into the aged has reputedly fielded some 20,000 to 30,000 individual complaints against age care providers. BUPA can expect a shellacking judging on their atrocious recent record. I don't expect SGP or AOG will get much direct heat but they will 'feel the burn' as a consequence of industry proximity.

    Has SGP deliberately picked NOW as the time to sell? Yep, they would expect to disrupt a number of candidates looking at AOG. The reverse of this argument would be that they know AOG has attracted quite some interest.

    So who is the better choice?

    AOG is bigger with 98 villages if you count USA with some 11,992 units. SGP has 65 villages with 9,609 units.
    FY18 EBIT was $141m for AOG and $56m for SGP.

    The critical comparison is the EBIT return on net retirement assets and as stated above AOG has performed better.

    AOG has a bigger future pipeline (4,700 v 3,050). Its development margin was better at 28% v 20.2%.

    On the other hand, SGP has a higher acceptance rating with 95% v 90% for AOG and AOG units are more expensive...its DMF are higher at 35% v 30% for SGP and they have not been as progressive as SGP in embracing the new land lease model to attract the downsizers. SGP now have some 4 villages been developed under this model and I would expect that the strategic plan for AOG will make some big announcements here.

    Then again, AOG has a more mature model with the average age of residents over 83 v 80.7 for SGP. That means AOG are closer to drawing the cash when the residents move on.

    The more I think about it, we are witnessing disruption to the traditional retirement model."

  5. #80
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    Private equity funds Brookfield and Blackstone are believed to be among the parties lining up to acquire the $1 billion retirement operator Aveo that is up for sale through Bank of America Merrill Lynch.It is understood that TPG Capital may have also been in the mix during the early stages of the sale process.First round bids were due yesterday and now shortlisted parties will progress to the next stage of the competition, where they will have the opportunity to access more detailed information in a data room. Aveo has a $970 million market value. It has 93 retirement communities but only operates four aged-care facilities, so the royal commission into aged care that unfolds this year is not expected to impact the sales process to any major extent.However, a bigger challenge will be a possible class action looming over the alleged move to change the status of residents’ properties from freehold to leasehold titles.There has been scepticism about the Aveo sale process as to whether it is a price-testing exercise for 24.4 per cent shareholder Mulpha, which many say will privatise the company once the sale process is complete.Some say the Malaysian investor’s intentions remain unclear.However, in November, Aveo told the market it was encouraged by inquiries by “a significant number of parties” mostly from Asia, North America and Australia.An independent board committee has been assessing the offers and an update is expected at the company’s results on February 13.Exactly how long the private equity groups will remain in the Aveo race is unclear, as retirement assets have not typically proved a happy hunting ground for buyout funds.They are interested because Aveo’s shares look cheap after it took a battering following negative publicity about its business practices two years ago, and the suitors hope to gain control and add upside.A decade ago, the sector was right out of favour even with institutional investors who were badly burnt by investments that had soured during the global financial crisis. However, operators have gradually begun winning back support, although offloading such businesses for lucrative prices isn’t easy.Stockland also has a major stake in its $1.5bn retirement operations up for sale through Morgan Stanley and Evans Dixon, and it is understood that major Asian institutional investors such as China Investment Corporation and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation have already shown some interest.Those parties are believed to have recently been around the market getting up to speed on the business.The sales process will get under way this month.That deal is expected to attract less opportunistic buyers, with the business widely considered a higher-quality operation, but Brookfield and Blackstone are also expected to look at the Stockland offering.Meanwhile, some say news of a sale of Healthscope to Brookfield Capital Partners may not emerge for two months, despite the private hospital operator telling the market last month that Brookfield was expected to put forward a binding bid by yesterday.Funding is in place, but the big sticking point is approval from Brookfield’s head office.Healthscope shareholder NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust been tipped as the most likely candidate to embark on a deal with Brookfield over the property portfolio, with the Canadian pair known to have been in talks for a while.

  6. #81
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    AOG starting to reverse the SP trend, heading back towards $1.70+ been a wee while since at these levels.

    Progress being made on the strategic review?

    If the Board/Mgmt can't get the SP back to $3.00 as a result of any transaction(s) then this whole process has been a failure.

    Last NTA update was $3.92 from memory.

    If they can't unlock value they should look at winding up/selling the entire business at NTA.

    Still holding on pending the outcome of the review.
    Disc holding - ENR, GAL, LYC, PRX, SES

  7. #82
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    Market is optimising a positive outcome here value wise as the reveal gets closer. Mulpha has held back this company's value and will try to get assets cheaply maybe the malaysian ones, a breakup of AOG is on the cards

    "Non-binding indicative bids from parties are due to be submitted by late January 2019. Aveo Group will provide an update as part of its Half Year Results on 13 February 2019."

  8. #83
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    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #84
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    Really?
    A number of bids have been received to buy the whole company.S/P rising steadily.Looking good atp..Still a big gap to nta.

  10. #85
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  11. #86
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    AOG up 20c to $2.13, pause in trading.

    Strategic review announcement that says absolutely nothing!

    Anyone seen/heard anything that might of generated this irrelevant announcement.

    Ps. Was hoping for a $4 a share takeover...
    Disc holding - ENR, GAL, LYC, PRX, SES

  12. #87
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    Patience required for this to play out .August, suggested by a canny investor who has a few connections.

  13. #88
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    That is an awfully long time given this process started back in November.

    What on earth is this costing us in advisor fees?
    Disc holding - ENR, GAL, LYC, PRX, SES

  14. #89
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    I dont care and im not a helicopter parent here.

  15. #90
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    Retirement home operator Aveo has received a confidential takeover offer and flagged a slump in its full-year profit, citing subdued property market conditions.
    Read more »

    Trading, Annual Distribution and Strategic Review
    Download Document 148.85KB

    S/P down to $1.975 having bottomed at $1.80 yest

    Some are linking AOG's downgrade performance with our sector here esp SUM and aus investors bailing from SUM etc. Maybe but AOG has uncertainty over its sale and poor management and management influence by dodgy (imo) re 20% holder Mulpha to be taken into consideration as well.
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 25-06-2019 at 10:28 AM.

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