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Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Since 2009 there have been 10 inquiries. Part and parcel of aged care in Australia.
Media love it.
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Originally Posted by trader_jackson
Under $2 at one stage to day... wowee
I have to say, this is looking tempting... is AOG really THAT bad?
(to be trading at a PE of 3 and nearly half its NTA?)
Whilst the share price feels the general negative media, the underlying assets, ie. NTA hasn't.
Its how long it takes and how they unlock value that will get things moving.
This is a "play" on the strategic review for me then I'm out.
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Yep , me too atp, patience required. Exiting Mulphas holding (23%) is the key i think,as it looks to be a big obstruction to others(instos etc) taking stakes. I HAVN'T verified but have read Mulpha ,having some great assets, carries a lot of debt $682 mill,with a mkt cap of $225 mill and the shares discounted to nta by 70% ,(as stated above). Conclusion/resolution of any class action will help as well.
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More than happy to wait it out with this one.
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Member
lol, didn't realise the poo jogger was an AOG exec.
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Heres an int post from portfolio plus on H/C responding to a suggestion that RYC (Ryman) could be a buyer of Mulphas stake. Int van comparisons.
Portfolio Plus
"I don't think Ryman are the answer...AOG obviously think they are good at this game as well...and the FY18 results show them to be so, judged on ROE (AOG 19% and RYM 21.58%)
I just cannot fathom why RYC are at the price they are - who in their right mind would pay an EV/EBIT of 19.3x versus AOG at 4.42x.
Initially I thought it might be that AOG aren't generating CASH and most of their profits are as a result of revaluing assets...but not so. I looked at both companies over the past four years comparing Net income with Cash from Operations and there wasn't much in it. Over the four years, RYC received 94.3% of their stated income as Cash Ops...AOG was 94.8%!
True, RYC is more consistent in generating cash whilst AOG are lumpy but that is more a result of them running down their property development investments.
Leaving aside AUD/NZD differences, RYC have been more proactive in investing for the future....but they plough back in profits (surplus to dividends paid) of $978m and then borrow...$782m in extra debt over the past 4 years. That's investments for the future of $1.76bn
AOG have ploughed back some $650m in profits surplus to dividends and used a combination of debt and share issues ($205m and $126m respectively.) Total $0.980bn
AOG's dividends as a % of 4 years on net income were 17.8% versus RYC of 24.3% - again not much difference.
Where there is a difference is in the Enterprise value - presently RYC have an EV of $7.76bn NZD versus AOG $1.83bn AUD. Roughly adjusting for exchange rates, is RYC really worth 3.90x AOG"
Last edited by Joshuatree; 27-09-2018 at 05:45 PM.
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Yes JT this is a stock that is so undervalued that in reality not much is expected from it. However there are some versions out there that anticipate the unlocking of AOG’s value at some time in the future.
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Member
how badly does this thing pong, ? due to the "Bleed them dry until they die" adverse TV doco
chairmans address today 8 pages
"It is our view that Aveo’s current security price
which is trading at a discount of 52% to net asset value
does not reflect the underlying value of our market
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leading retirement business which has grown
strongly and consistently over the past five years."
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- "On track to deliver 418 major development units in FY19" dropped from 500 i think
- "The Directors have established a committee and process to assess various structuring alternatives. This will ensure that any offers received are subject to consideration by the Directors within an appropriate period of time"
Im feeling distrustful about them and mulpha.Wonder if RYM are running ruler over too.
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