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  1. #71
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    ^^Could be JT...at least when renting you can hopefully shift if you're really unhappy..
    Nice rise today but OUCH at the SP graph ! I can see why you are gun shy on this sector now after your recent beating on this one
    Investors must be expecting a LOT of trouble coming from the Govt review.
    35% DMF does look excessive especially amortized over just 3 years, bordering on exploitive perhaps ? No doubt an issue the Australian Govt will look forward to getting their teeth into along with the obvious need for increased service standards. Had a little look at this earlier...then had to do some real work this afternoon. From memory, (which I am not pretending is razor sharp after a long day of hard work) one thing that stood out, An 83% customer satisfaction survey is nothing to be proud of and suggests nearly one in five residents is dissatisfied or deeply dissatisfied with their living arrangements and probably many of which have no way out considering their retirement unit is their most valuable asset. Nearly one in five residents potentially feeling trapped and unhappy seems very sad.

    SUM has a 96% resident satisfaction standard by comparison...only one in 25 residents unhappy. Bounce trade only for some, I'm not sure I would want to invest in a company with so many unhappy residents.
    Last edited by Beagle; 03-12-2018 at 05:31 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #72
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    Yeah thats the lingering hangover from this below in 2017. they've come along way since but mud sticks and maybe a new broom is needed.
    Aveo: Exploitation of the elderly rife in retirement villages - ABC News ...www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-24/elderly-exploited-in-aveo-retirement.../8645876

  3. #73
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yeah thats the lingering hangover from this below in 2017. they've come along way since but mud sticks and maybe a new broom is needed.
    Aveo: Exploitation of the elderly rife in retirement villages - ABC News ...www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-24/elderly-exploited-in-aveo-retirement.../8645876
    That really is shocking. Even if they are making some moves to reform what look like exploitive corporate behavior patterns, as you suggest the CEO and board have set the culture and we know a tiger doesn't usually change its stripes, (with the odd exception like a spotted snow leopard). As you rightly suggest, a new broom is probably required.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #74
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    It was an extreme rather sensationalist reporting.Some balance in this article.Aveo targeted by Fairfax/Four Corners but the village sector and truth ...https://www.theweeklysource.com.au › Opinion › Chris Baynes

  5. #75
    Legend shasta's Avatar
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    That's a very unprofessional and misleading article, what's Adele Ferguson's beef with Aveo?

    Current management is addressing the historical issues, but to deliberately miss report "facts" which has a detrimental and quantifiable impact on the business may well end up in legal action.

    Meantime I'd love to know the updated NTA figure.

    AOG SP trading well below 50% of NTA, with the strategic review in progress attracting a lot of interest.

    Still holding on for the ride...
    Last edited by shasta; 07-12-2018 at 02:38 AM.

  6. #76
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    Yes me too , one of my itchy fingers wants to do a pocket dial and average down .

  7. #77
    Member Pumice's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Yes me too , one of my itchy fingers wants to do a pocket dial and average down .
    Ditto.
    If it gives you any confidence, Mulpha & Aveo Chairman Seng Lee has acquired almost 9m shares at an ave of $1.89 taking their holding from 22.86% to 24.38% in a little over a month

    No idea what they paid for the other 132.8m shares

  8. #78
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    Mulpha ARE the worry for me , i dont trust them and their agendas and their incestuous relationship with Aveo.

  9. #79
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    S/P $1.57 atm, wish id averaged down on this one.

    Stockland to sell all retirement assets , see portfolio plus post below. I vouch for his integrity.



    "Word on the street suggests that just before Xmas SGP appointed Morgan Stanley to sell its entire retirement portfolio. There are more than a few observatons to make here.

    Have SGP lost interest in the retirement industry and its ultra low return on assets? Could be. At a tad over 4% EBIT/net Retirement Assets they performed worse than AOG in FY18 who returned close to 4.7%. But these figures are way behind the returms they are used to getting in their residential, commercial and logistics divisions.

    Do they see problems and hassles ahead? Possibly. The RC into the aged has reputedly fielded some 20,000 to 30,000 individual complaints against age care providers. BUPA can expect a shellacking judging on their atrocious recent record. I don't expect SGP or AOG will get much direct heat but they will 'feel the burn' as a consequence of industry proximity.

    Has SGP deliberately picked NOW as the time to sell? Yep, they would expect to disrupt a number of candidates looking at AOG. The reverse of this argument would be that they know AOG has attracted quite some interest.

    So who is the better choice?

    AOG is bigger with 98 villages if you count USA with some 11,992 units. SGP has 65 villages with 9,609 units.
    FY18 EBIT was $141m for AOG and $56m for SGP.

    The critical comparison is the EBIT return on net retirement assets and as stated above AOG has performed better.

    AOG has a bigger future pipeline (4,700 v 3,050). Its development margin was better at 28% v 20.2%.

    On the other hand, SGP has a higher acceptance rating with 95% v 90% for AOG and AOG units are more expensive...its DMF are higher at 35% v 30% for SGP and they have not been as progressive as SGP in embracing the new land lease model to attract the downsizers. SGP now have some 4 villages been developed under this model and I would expect that the strategic plan for AOG will make some big announcements here.

    Then again, AOG has a more mature model with the average age of residents over 83 v 80.7 for SGP. That means AOG are closer to drawing the cash when the residents move on.

    The more I think about it, we are witnessing disruption to the traditional retirement model."

  10. #80
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    Private equity funds Brookfield and Blackstone are believed to be among the parties lining up to acquire the $1 billion retirement operator Aveo that is up for sale through Bank of America Merrill Lynch.It is understood that TPG Capital may have also been in the mix during the early stages of the sale process.First round bids were due yesterday and now shortlisted parties will progress to the next stage of the competition, where they will have the opportunity to access more detailed information in a data room. Aveo has a $970 million market value. It has 93 retirement communities but only operates four aged-care facilities, so the royal commission into aged care that unfolds this year is not expected to impact the sales process to any major extent.However, a bigger challenge will be a possible class action looming over the alleged move to change the status of residents’ properties from freehold to leasehold titles.There has been scepticism about the Aveo sale process as to whether it is a price-testing exercise for 24.4 per cent shareholder Mulpha, which many say will privatise the company once the sale process is complete.Some say the Malaysian investor’s intentions remain unclear.However, in November, Aveo told the market it was encouraged by inquiries by “a significant number of parties” mostly from Asia, North America and Australia.An independent board committee has been assessing the offers and an update is expected at the company’s results on February 13.Exactly how long the private equity groups will remain in the Aveo race is unclear, as retirement assets have not typically proved a happy hunting ground for buyout funds.They are interested because Aveo’s shares look cheap after it took a battering following negative publicity about its business practices two years ago, and the suitors hope to gain control and add upside.A decade ago, the sector was right out of favour even with institutional investors who were badly burnt by investments that had soured during the global financial crisis. However, operators have gradually begun winning back support, although offloading such businesses for lucrative prices isn’t easy.Stockland also has a major stake in its $1.5bn retirement operations up for sale through Morgan Stanley and Evans Dixon, and it is understood that major Asian institutional investors such as China Investment Corporation and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation have already shown some interest.Those parties are believed to have recently been around the market getting up to speed on the business.The sales process will get under way this month.That deal is expected to attract less opportunistic buyers, with the business widely considered a higher-quality operation, but Brookfield and Blackstone are also expected to look at the Stockland offering.Meanwhile, some say news of a sale of Healthscope to Brookfield Capital Partners may not emerge for two months, despite the private hospital operator telling the market last month that Brookfield was expected to put forward a binding bid by yesterday.Funding is in place, but the big sticking point is approval from Brookfield’s head office.Healthscope shareholder NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust been tipped as the most likely candidate to embark on a deal with Brookfield over the property portfolio, with the Canadian pair known to have been in talks for a while.

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