Spark (TEL)

[Hoop]

Dunno why the subs has to be under $15 a month to succeed...an arbitrary figure?......

No MVT a competitive global figure ....Spark will eventually be forced to compete with Companies that have 10's of millions of subscribers each...Most Internet TV the likes of Hulu are currently Geo locked to USA ..but Netflix which was USA only are now spreading to European countries ... as these companies slowly spread to other countries e.g Coke and Popcorn have entered countries that don't seem to have a Geolocking law in place ( you can watch without any hassells)...This lack of Geo locking is a negative factor for Spark...NZ media protection laws by the major movie or TV producers may prevent large internet companies from physically invading NZ with super low $ subscriptions but these laws are outdated and ineffective when it comes to virtual invasions.

...Click on the link for a taste of Internet TV..Remember Justified (Series 5 Ep 1)..the series that disappeared off our NZ TV screens...You can watch it here

If showme has a video library that you can pick and watch when you please ( differiates from sky where you are told what you can watch and when ) I might be interested

How's this for a video library Bull The internet is full of these linking websites....

the screenshot (below) is halfway down the H page I've red boxed the TV programme the House of Cards which started last night (series 1 Ep1).... I clicked on this link and it bought up 110 feeds all containing both Series 1 and 2, each series has 13 episodes (some feeds have HD resolution)..

[bull....]

Thanks for the link hoop I had a look, this is what im talking about none of this bs from sky of telling me what i can an cant watch lol but the only small problem is they wanted my credit card info and im not a big fan of giving it to sites I dont know a lot about.
So must be a market for telecom there a?

[Major von Tempsky]

Waal, I just had a nibble....put some more of my money where my mouth is....4,400 at 244.5.... :-)

[Ginger_steps_]

For those with access to a NBR subscription - there was a very interesting article by Jon Brewer which was an update to an 2011 article titled "the end of profit" (for telcos). The 2011 article predicted that telcos would no longer be profitable by 2015. Basically customer numbers are up however landlines are down - Mobile data being the main business. The cost of providing data has almost halved since 2011 but at the same time data revenue is now around 1/6 of what it used to be. The cross over of cost vs profit is predicted to happen this year! Interestingly enough this happens to coincide with telecom, now spark, moving into TV - which i believe ads credibility to the article. So on the assumption that the prediction is correct - Spark's future profitability relies solely on its performance in tv - a space with many giant competitors already.

Disc: Sold my entire holding.

A further thought - if the crossover takes place this year as predicted - how long could it take for Spark to become profitable (if ever) in the television sector? My thoughts on analysts 2.75 valuation due to turnaround strategy is that it is one giant pump and dump. Then again i am just a newb.

[Major von Tempsky]

Any reason why Spark can't cherrypick in the entertainment sector? Some people's assumptions seem to be it has to go into full blown competition immediately with Sky, TVNZ, TV3..
There's more than one way of skinning a cat as you will see.

I think I would rather trust the forward guidance of the experts at Spark, Vodafone, etc etc than the rambling -s of a Jon Brewer (who?) who predicted the end of telcos in a 2011 article. Whatever "telcos" are as Spark now illustrates "telcos are now everything, landline, mobile, broadband, cable, TV, IT etc etc.
He's obviously rather disappointed his 2011 predictions haven't come true so needs to rewrite his predictions - if he qualifies them enough to say that the share of landlines will continue to go down then he may be able to get some egg off his face?

Sorry you sold out Ginger as TEL's price continues to go up. Makes me glad that I bought when you sold. Maybe I have your shares :-)

[Ginger_steps_]

Any reason why Spark can't cherrypick in the entertainment sector? Some people's assumptions seem to be it has to go into full blown competition immediately with Sky, TVNZ, TV3..
There's more than one way of skinning a cat as you will see.

I think I would rather trust the forward guidance of the experts at Spark, Vodafone, etc etc than the rambling -s of a Jon Brewer (who?) who predicted the end of telcos in a 2011 article. Whatever "telcos" are as Spark now illustrates "telcos are now everything, landline, mobile, broadband, cable, TV, IT etc etc.
He's obviously rather disappointed his 2011 predictions haven't come true so needs to rewrite his predictions - if he qualifies them enough to say that the share of landlines will continue to go down then he may be able to get some egg off his face?

Sorry you sold out Ginger as TEL's price continues to go up. Makes me glad that I bought when you sold. Maybe I have your shares :-)

Actually the article was updated because his predictions are now becoming fact. Vodafone nz was an example- customers up, revenue up and profit down. However as stated the crossover isnt expected until this year. He also mentioned back then that we would see companies beginning to bundle multiple services and diversify- again true. Yep I agree- maybe I sold out a few weeks early- but ill be back to quote you when the tables turn.

Furthermore- Do you really think you will get an objective opinion from experts within the companies?

Only time will tell however im not willing to take that risk. If they are profitable in 5 years I may consider taking a position again.

BTW Jon Brewer is a TUANZ member.

[Major von Tempsky]

Actually...if you'd care to read Rod Oram page D24 of the Sunday Star Times today he covers all this excellently and rather better than Jon Brewer. Comment again after you have read Rod Oram. (normally I am rather dismissive of Rod Oram because his articles are politically slanted heavily to one political party - enough to rate them as propaganda rather than objective analysis - however today he's stayed out of politics completely).
There's one point I disagree with him - he states "such as watching content away from the main family TV".
Bollocks, consumers will, and are buying main family TVs that easily connect to the Internet so that they can sit together in their comfortable Lazy Boy recliners and watch in their TV room.

TUANZ? Raucous laughter. It's main purpose is not to serve Telecom Users but to try to destroy Telecom. Think cynically when you read a TUANZ pronouncement - luckily they are rarer and rarer these days. Maybe TUANZ is dying out now that Chorus is separated from Telecom and telecom fields of activity have vastly proliferated?

The last news release from TUANZ I recall (and they used to come thick and fast) was some months ago.
It was a sotto voce release volunteering to "do everything they could to help CNU" and seemed rather along the lines of the fox offering to guard the henhouse heh heh ;-)
How TUANZ still justify the considerable expense of a full time CEO and staff and office etc strains credibility.

[Longhaul]

Whatever you call Telecom now, seems they made a complete botch-up of the launch of their digital TV platform ShowmeTV and are now changing the name (link to NZ Herald article). Irrespective of other companies with similar names, how could they not have thought it was an awful name anyway?

[Major von Tempsky]

Storminatcup.

[Major von Tempsky]

Maybe its time to have another look at TEL - up 6.5cps (was 7cps and maybe more again) today.

All those simple minded devotees of momentum trading and "technical" analysis, draw one of the 100+ plus possible graphs selecting your base point carefully in order to show what you want, and tell us the answer so we can note it for future comment :-)

[BIRMANBOY]

Are you lonely MVT? Yearning for some meaty charts from Hoop to sink your teeth into.......

Maybe its time to have another look at TEL - up 6.5cps (was 7cps and maybe more again) today.

All those simple minded devotees of momentum trading and "technical" analysis, draw one of the 100+ plus possible graphs selecting your base point carefully in order to show what you want, and tell us the answer so we can note it for future comment :-)

[craic]

Todays good rise simply reflects the markets. Got me out of a hole where I looked like losing money. Dividend is just a few days away and I suspect that will encourage a sell down by simple folks who know about the dividend and will wait until they get the letter before they drop out.

[couta1]

Why would you pay $2.60 for this stock on no news,record date gone and next divvy eons away,looks very toppy to me,how long before haircut arrives?

[Major von Tempsky]

Several answers - the first one that occurs to me re paying $2.60 for this stock is because that's rather cheaper than paying $2.80 in a month or two.
No news? Scads of it - don't you bother reading it or do you have the goldfish 7 second memory syndrome? Try logging into the Tel Investor Centre, or log into Direct Broking, enter TEL in the side box and then in the drop down box at the top choose "News".
Have a look at the incentives that Simon Moutter and the rest now get - they're now very highly motivated to make the thing work.
The hope/aspiration is for a higher dividend rate next announcement in September. You need patience to be a successful value investor.
If your nerves are that twitchy for action suggest you take a trip to the Casino and burn some money to settle you down.

[BIRMANBOY]

Been there, done that...didn't help!! (sorry Couta, couldn't resist.

You need patience to be a successful value investor.
If your nerves are that twitchy for action suggest you take a trip to the Casino and burn some money to settle you down.