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  1. #2941
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigBob View Post
    You saying that they are already over the finishing line....?

    I think there's still a furlong to go...

    Discl: hold MEL and GNE
    seriously you dont think they will keep going up for the long term do you? might be short term higher ? but rates have turned upwards. utilities have been bond proxies and will suffer accordingly when the bubble pops.
    i sold mel because dividends would take many many years to catchup with the capital gains i made now if i just held. i will buy back in one day for the divs again
    one step ahead of the herd

  2. #2942
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    No I don't - but I also don't think the race is quite over yet...

    I do think that MEL will eventually win the capital gains race, but I do think GNE will catch up a bit first...

    My finger is hovering over the sell button on at least part of my MEL holding for same reason as you, but not so much with GNE - still a decent divvie to collect there...

  3. #2943
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    seriously you dont think they will keep going up for the long term do you? might be short term higher ? but rates have turned upwards. utilities have been bond proxies and will suffer accordingly when the bubble pops.
    i sold mel because dividends would take many many years to catchup with the capital gains i made now if i just held. i will buy back in one day for the divs again

    Yes indeed bull. ...as they say low expected of bond returns is also saying low returns for stocks. (Over time)

    Have to make the most of things as they happen
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #2944
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    For bar released notes on Power companies today. Genesis is the only company with an out perform at $3.90

  5. #2945
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shareguy View Post
    For bar released notes on Power companies today. Genesis is the only company with an out perform at $3.90
    Thanks for sharing. I am happy to hold. I think keen ESG investors have driven the others (certainly at one point earlier this month), a fair way above fair value.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #2946
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    WOW - quite a big upgrade by Forbar, up 52 cents to $3.90.
    They're saying GNE is the main beneficiary of the smelter remaining open until at least Dec 2024.
    Forecasting 17.7 cps in fully imputed dividends for FY22 rising to 18 cps fully imputed in FY23.
    Looking at next years yield that's 17.7 / 0.72 = 24.58 cps gross which on a share price of $3.68 gives a gross yield of 6.7% and growing

    I retail a sizeable position bought as a quasi term deposit.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2947
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    Attachment 12239

    That is my DCF valuation. I do not know how the morning star got the number to $2.4. I highly doubt its true commercial purpose behind its valuation.

    At the current low interest rate environment, people will chase companies with high dividend yield and within stable sectors, such as energy and healthcare industry. We witness takeovers occurred recently all from those sectors, ABA, MET, IFT and TLT.
    Last edited by flyinglizard; 20-01-2021 at 10:56 AM.

  8. #2948
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyinglizard View Post
    That is my DCF valuation.
    Thanks flyinglizard. Your assumptions and analysis look sound, although I do note that the 'terminal value' makes up a large proportion of your valuation, which is not uncommon with DCF analysis.

    I was curious about the 'deceleration in growth' (if a fall in growth rate from ~2% to ~1% can be called that) in cashflow from FY2024 to FY2027, before the growth rate rebounds to 2.25% in FY2029. Can you explain why you have modelled things that way?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 20-01-2021 at 01:04 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  9. #2949
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    Snoopy me ol Beagle mate, I'm happy to send you a copy of Forbar's $3.90 valuation. PM me your email address.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #2950
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

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