GNE - Genesis Energy

[Jantar]

Look on their website under distribution regulation.

OK, A seach for "distribution regulation" produces 10 pages of news items, but nothing that looks remotely like your claim.
Going to their Regulated Industries Tab, then to Electricity also shows nothing resembling your claim.

Going to my company's database and looking at our Transpower and Network invoices shows the data I gave is correct.

[Snow Leopard]

Leaving the argument between the industry insiders aside, all I am trying to do is temper some peoples expectations that the current high spot prices equates to massively larger profits for Genesis.

Do Your Own Research as usual.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[horus1]

I introduced Transmission pricing . I know what I am talking about. Look at the CC recent announcements on regulation of line cos. Your figures on the split of pricing are wildly out.

[Jantar]

If you did indeed introduce the TPM then I know you, and you know me from when I worked for Transpower. So perhaps you need to review TP's pricing disclosure https://www.transpower.co.nz/about-u...ue-and-pricing Their charges for FY 2014 were $661 m for AC charges and $145 m for DC charges, a total of $806 m.
Compare this to various companies' wholesale revenue. Contact are the only company that reports wholesale income as a seperate item, and reported $742 m wholesale revenue and paid $596 Transmission charges. MRP reported Line charges of $431 m with total energy sales (retail) of $1672 m. Thus they paid 26% of their electricty income (not just kwH charge) as transmission costs, and they have no HVDC charges to consider.

So Transpower's charges are greater than the wholesale income of any of the larger generators and certainly much more than the 7% you claim. Perhaps you are just looking at the line rental part of the TPM, because strangely enough that is around 7%, in which case you didn't introduce the TPM, but may have been on the Working Group that introduced Nodal Pricing.

[Snow Leopard]

So if Transpower revenue was about $800M and NZ (excluding Tiwai) uses about 32,000GWh of electricity a year then Transpower are clipping the ticket (on average) to the tune of

$25,000/GWh or
$25/MWh or
$0.025/KWh.

I assume in that in the real world that Tiwai adds in a few thousand GWh, Transpower clip the ticket on that and thus that cost is actually lower.

Contact sold 8,378GWh of retail+wholesale electricity in FY14 for $2,175M

$0.260/KWh

Contact had a cost of $596M for "Electricity transmission, distribution and levies"

$0.069/KWh (upto 2.5c for Transpower and 4.4c or more not for Transpower).

Presumably similar numbers would come of the works for Genesis et al (to give it some relevance to this thread).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Fixed charges are amortized, does not cover the cost of generation or other expenses, etc, errors and omissions..., more etc, roll your own, look both ways before crossing.

[fish]

Leaving the argument between the industry insiders aside, all I am trying to do is temper some peoples expectations that the current high spot prices equates to massively larger profits for Genesis.

Do Your Own Research as usual.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Your caution is wise
We could easily get heavy rain and if hydro levels rise spot prices will fall.
I am not intending to say that genesis will make mega annual profits as a result of the current high spot prices but just to alert that current high spot prices are a good sign for current and future profit.
It should also be noted that only a few months ago predictions were that demand would fall.
This has been proven wrong over the past 6 months-but of course who knows the future.
Low interest rates are a big plus for all power companies and is probably the biggest contributer to the rise in share prices.
Personally I feel dry summers are good for CEN and Gen and bad for mrp-but maybe MRP have enough hedging to cover it.
However hedge cover could be more expensive for MRP in the future

[IAK]

"BIG DRY WILL AFFECT ELECTRICITY"
The latest hydro storage data shows 2015 as at 88% of average for this time of year, and with lake inflows very low too, there could be trouble looming. We should be near peak levels now because typically lake in inflows run down from March to September and we are starting out in a worse position that 2001 when we last had trouble on this front.

IMO Genesis will be well positioned to take advantage of low hydro inflows.

[bull....]

with australia dropping interest rates and to drop them again soon and nz to drop interest rates at some stage genesis div yield which is still one of the highest around will become highly attractive.
The company may lose some income from oil and customer count but having the highest fcf of the gentailers they should be able to maintain div payout rato going ahead.

[Harvey Specter]

OCR drop ruled out yesterday. Things will need to get much worse before he does now.

[bull....]

OCR drop ruled out yesterday. Things will need to get much worse before he does now.

thats what the aussies said only a mth ago too, in fact most central banks this year are doing the opposite of what they say because conditions warrant change quickly