GNE - Genesis Energy

[Jantar]

A lot of the questions asked here about solar energy, electric vehicles, batteries etc are answered in this Meridian presentation https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212164.pdf pp 31 - 40

[PSE]

Interesting comment in the latest MEL market announcement that relates to the solar question for all gentailers.
"The Electricity Authority is reviewing distribution charges, including in a solar context which may impact financial incentives to install - but other incentives will remain."
Sounds like they share my view that the systems are uneconomic and a fix for the loophole is imminent. It is more politically palatable coming from the regulator than the gentailers.
If there is any more solar talk maybe someone can answer the question of why the panels are getting cheaper and what are the constraints on further reductions. This will impact the generation companies but solar still nowhere close at around 3x the cost of the other cheap renewable sources.
Otherwise I am done with the endless speculation.
Chur
Power Systems Engineer

Reading more of the very comprehensive MEL announcement (30April2015) they have put the solar question to bed with their chart of 2m rooftop installations only reducing demand growth. Clearly they have considered the risk to their business even if it becomes economic - most rosy scenario is that it meets demand growth not including electric cars.
Say 2.5kW on 2 million houses as saturation using average output from the EECA website of 1350kWh per annum gives 2.7TWh against an overall demand of 40TWh a few years ago.
PSE will still have a useful purpose, not going the way of the dodo anytime soon punters

[Beagle]

Interesting discussion that's filled in an otherwise boring Saturday.

In case anyone wasn't aware electric cars are already here and well within the scope of affordability for most people buying a small/medium car brand new. Economics work out well too but watch residual value considerations. Range isn't an issue, (official range 160 km but I reckon 100 km's in real world use is more realistic), for a lot of city dwellers using one to commute and many families now have two or more cars so range isn't the big bugbear many might imagine it to be. The Leaf started out at $69,995 a few years ago, then Nissan did a massive price drop to stimulate demand and now I'd bet more than a few bob more than a few of you would be surprised what you could buy a demo one for...genuine N.Z. new car with Nissan warranty, (parallel import even cheaper)
http://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/used...-827449096.htm

I think the pending more widespread availability of electric cars and plug in hybrids is a far bigger issue on the demand side than solar on the supply side.

That said, (sheeting this back to GNE) none of this provides any short term support to the current downward SP momentum.

Sell in May and go away ?

[warthog]

Agree I like Musk and think it is great they are taking on the world but as an investment prospect that is another story. Nissan already builds a dinky little leaf electric car, Tesla doesn't hold a monopoly.
Talking about the large car manufacturers, nokia doesn't build cars does it?

No, but they were the global leader in mobile handsets. They have all but disappeared. Why didn't they crush Apple?

Samsung has bitten into apple.

How so?

The only thing Samsung has done to Apple is copy them. Interestingly enough, Samsung compete at the component level for Apple's business, and that part of Samsung's business is profitable, but the margins are very slim indeed.

Samsung's latest mobile results are an absolute disaster for them, and are not sustainable, even for Samsung.

Have you ever seen where the profits are made in mobile tech? If not, the Hog would suggest it worthwhile.

[PSE]

Interesting discussion that's filled in an otherwise boring Saturday.

In case anyone wasn't aware electric cars are already here and well within the scope of affordability for most people buying a small/medium car brand new. Economics work out well too but watch residual value considerations. Range isn't an issue, (official range 160 km but I reckon 100 km's in real world use is more realistic), for a lot of city dwellers using one to commute and many families now have two or more cars so range isn't the big bugbear many might imagine it to be. The Leaf started out at $69,995 a few years ago, then Nissan did a massive price drop to stimulate demand and now I'd bet more than a few bob more than a few of you would be surprised what you could buy a demo one for...genuine N.Z. new car with Nissan warranty, (parallel import even cheaper)
http://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/used...-827449096.htm

I think the pending more widespread availability of electric cars and plug in hybrids is a far bigger issue on the demand side than solar on the supply side.

That said, (sheeting this back to GNE) none of this provides any short term support to the current downward SP momentum.

Sell in May and go away ?

Agree more positives than negatives here on solar and electric vehicles. I am an old school value investor so I think buy if it gets cheap enough.
As JP Morgan said when asked to predict what the sharemarket will do 'it will fluctuate', the charts are all greek to me don't ask me what will happen in May.
I also have a long term view on investments and like to buy companies I will be happy with in 10 years time i.e. when the Kupe gas runs out and E3P reaches its half life of 15 years and has to find some more gas. I understand that GNE is locked into take or pay contracts until 2020, so is running E3P at a loss until then.
CEN is being the swing producer with it's more flexible gas.
The Tekapo canal was a bit of a dog, MEL handed it over just as $160m of work needed to be done and GNE has paid for this. Maybe more work will be needed in the long term future.
It's been a while since I looked at the balance sheet but basically the good hydro assets are covered by liabilities and what you are buying are some aging thermal stations, a gas field that is running out and the largest retail customer base - in a market that is proving competitive.

For every dog there is a price at which a value investor would become interested, however I think it is unlikely to fall enough for me to become interested because I am so damn stingy. Maybe in the next sharemarket firesale/crash.

[PSE]

I was dissapointed with the small allocation I got and stagged the float. I didn't want too much in Gentailers as strange as it may seem now it wasn't certain who would win the election.

[Joshuatree]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...ats-a-bugatti-

Re electric cars ,here's a fast change battery 1341hp (1 megawatt) sports car.

[Harvey Specter]

A lot of the questions asked here about solar energy, electric vehicles, batteries etc are answered in this Meridian presentation https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212164.pdf pp 31 - 40

Did anyone read the bottom of page 39?

As and when costs outweigh alternatives
- We assume NZD $7,000-8,000 6.5kWh battery with daily cycling capability sufficient for a 10 year lifetime (100kg & 1.0m by 0.5m)

BOOM MFers

Musk just announce USD $3,500 10kWh battery with daily cycling capability sufficiency for a 10 year Warranty (bolts on your wall)

Full specs

Mounting: Wall Mounted Indoor/Outdoor
Inverter: Pairs with growing list of inverters
Energy: 7 kWh or 10 kWh
Continuous Power: 2 kW
Peak Power: 3.3 kW
Round Trip Efficiency: >92%
Operating Temperature Range: -20C (-4F) to 43C (110F)
Warranty: 10 years
Dimensions: H: 1300mm W: 860mm D:180mm

[PSE]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...ats-a-bugatti-

Re electric cars ,here's a fast change battery 1341hp (1 megawatt) sports car.

Cool, my personal favourite is the white zombie.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zLjnRj2Dhwk
Almost as fast as the Bugatti (after a few more tweaks after the video) over the quarter mile but built in someones shed and being an old dunga not exactly aerodynamic. Electric motors front and rear.
Not sure that the horsepower means much for the electric car as it gets full nunga from a standing start so the limiting factor is not spinning the wheels, 260HP looks like heaps to me when I see that zombie take off from a standing start.

[Harvey Specter]

Roger - you aren't the typical household. I hassled you because I assumed you were an empty nester but are actually multigenerational/2 families on 1 ICP so have access to a lower per unit charge. I pay 27c pu and per powers swap website, that's about as good as I can get.

And I am not saying this will kill the generators or lines companies, just that they will have to adjust their prices to adjust, which will probably push more people to distributed power. Batteries if anything could be the saviour for them because if lots pursued a solar only option, there would be major issues of over investment just to handle peak loads which in NZ is 7pm (different to overseas) where it is during the day.