GNE - Genesis Energy

[tony64peter]

Thanks for the info. T

[IAK]

Looks like the share price cable is out of service as well.

[bull....]

oversold bounce was a non event

[Beagle]

The market is being driven by yield and little else IMHO. In post #1371 I suggested if they can maintain 16 cps in dividends then taking into account medium term available imputation credits I put forward the theory that GEN may be worth $1.90 such that investors would get a 10% gross divvy yield and at that time my price was well below the market and I suggest few people thought it would get down to around $1.90.

Now it is close I have been spending time considering if 16 cps dividends are sustainable in the medium term. I think not, unless there is a return to circa $100 barrel oil so my current theory is we'll see the $1.80 SP baseline (established shortly after IPO listing), tested in due course. I don't see any reason in the current weak market to move quickly to re-establish a meaningful position as all the risk and momentum appears to be to the downside.I'd be very surprised if it got down to $1.50 but that said when there's momentum and probably analyst downgrades to come the SP often undershoots on the downside.

Posted 4 May and as expected we're seeing that $1.80 or thereabouts baseline being tested. Might people who missed the IPO price have another opportunity ? Who wants to catch a falling knife ?
Disc, still have a very small holding just for interest, not looking to get back to a meaningful position at this stage.

[Xerof]

Posted 4 May and as expected we're seeing that $1.80 or thereabouts baseline being tested. Might people who missed the IPO price have another opportunity ? Who wants to catch a falling knife ?
Disc, still have a very small holding just for interest, not looking to get back to a meaningful position at this stage.

I am nibbling today Roger, purely on the basis that it's close to that old resistance level of 1.80/1.85 that held it for months. This should now be good support. Not firing all bullets though.

[Beagle]

I am nibbling today Roger, purely on the basis that it's close to that old resistance level of 1.80/1.85 that held it for months. This should now be good support. Not firing all bullets though.

You're a brave man. Oil was miles higher when it built that previous support level. Bet you a beer it goes under $1.80 sometime in the next few months.

[trader_jackson]

I believe within next 12 months price will be back up to $2.2X as people realize interest rates are not going anywhere, while GNE still have not lowered their dividend despite lowering profit outlook (slightly). Like Might River Power (although this is different reason for going down I realize), retail investors (mum and dad, most of whom are short sighted) have got their bonus shares and probably just selling at any old price...

Most likely to try and buy another property in Auckland because we all know property prices in Auckland can only go up 10-20% each year, right? because that's all that's ever happened for the past 30 years (in NZ, exception with small blip in 2008/2009) What can possibly go wrong with jumping on the Auckland Property band wagon?
(Sarcasm is present in the 2nd paragraph)

[Xerof]

You're a brave man.

hopefully where others are fearful

no bet, I suspect I will nibble some more below that level

[fish]

Very wise Xerof.
I too have been nibbling-it was contact-CEN but yesterday resumed GEN.
With a growing population and economy I am of the conviction that electricity demand will grow-I watch people and trends closely.
Indians and Asians are our main immigrants.Their families follow.Auckland is growing and more high rise will be part of the solution.Wood fires will go.Gas is not good in high rise.Air-con use will increase summer electricity use ubstantially
A study of energy use in over 3,000 houses of different types in Sydney found that high-rise used more energy than mid-rise, used more than low-rise, used more than townhouses and villas.

Since average temperatures in Auckland will be similar to those currently experienced in Sydney, a warmer climate and more compact built form increases energy use and makes low-density housing forms more energy efficient

[Beagle]

Interesting situation this one. What happens to earnings when their futures cover on oil price ends ? The company isn't telling the market about their inability to impute the dividend fully, or anywhere near fully in the medium term. It wouldn't surprise me to see this with a handle starting with a one and a six at some stage this year. All the short / medium term risk appears to be to the downside.

I agree that over the long term population growth will see demand growth and we're seeing this start to play out this year. Meanwhile retail competition grows inexorably tougher and GEN are most exposed to probable further meaningful erosion in market share. Stock is down circa 20% from its high, another 10-15% to go ?