GNE - Genesis Energy

[xafalcon]

Its not a great sign for the market overall that utilities in general are doing well...people need power even in a deep recession.
Or maybe its just the nice safe yield thing. I see ANZ have changed their view and now see two further OCR rate decreases this year taking us down to an all time record low of 2%. I reckon it could even go lower than that if dairy stays in the doldrums.

NZ market utilities provide exception dividend yields, and have tangible (and valuable) asset backing. It goes without saying they produce a necessity of life and therefore have a captive (but competitive) market

If an investor can stomach the SP swings, NZ utilities appear better than money in the bank earning 3% (or whatever pittance the banks currently pay). Off shore, bank deposit rates are even lower, making yield differentials greater albeit with a potential forex risk/benefit

The only foreseeable on-shore "risk" to generator SP is the perpetual Tiwai uncertainty saga, which must resolve in the next few months if 2019 dry-year supply generation commitments are to be met

My view is firmly in line with your second scenario, this is a nice safe yield thing

[Beagle]

Tiwai uncertainty saga...yes it's a saga alright...if it wasn't for that I'd back the truck up on this one.

[RTM]

Its not a great sign for the market overall that utilities in general are doing well...people need power even in a deep recession.
Or maybe its just the nice safe yield thing. I see ANZ have changed their view and now see two further OCR rate decreases this year taking us down to an all time record low of 2%. I reckon it could even go lower than that if dairy stays in the doldrums.

It possibly might. And one wonders what our dollar will do ? If the above happens, and USA have another rate hike, no matter how small...does our dollar go to less than US$0.60 ? That will help NZ Inc a bit.

[sb9]

Genesis considering bond offer, seem to be a pattern with Gentailers of late with Meridian doing the same recently. Well, if its cheap to raise money through this manner why not eh?

[xafalcon]

What happened to market closing trading today? At 5.05pm there were over 50k shares matched at 209, but not showing as trades. I checked later and at 5.25pm there is still 38k matched at 208, but trades not showing

I trade through ANZ securities. GNE page still showing market close price auction at 5.30pm??

[thestg]

Check news - Bond offer at close so trading suspended.

[xafalcon]

Yep, that's it.

Unusual (stupid) timing for a price sensitive information release

Interesting that GNE got a significantly lower interest than MEL. I would have expected a similar figure

[Traderx]

GNE in a seemingly inoxerable uptrend - basically a straight line!

A few interesting tidbits

GNE have put prices up in a few lines company regions but not all. In Wellington i'd estimate the non lines co increase at circa 3% eff 1 April. NB no pricing change in Vector/AKL however.

GNE seems to have launched a solar business..
http://solar.genesisenergy.co.nz/

oil trending up off the lows
GNE holding customer levels steady

No news on Huntly rankines

Tiwai push out suggests deal in the works ot maintain full output (my take only)

Divvy record date 31st march.

Cheers

Disc- very small long

[Joshuatree]

Well trust power made some pretty good offers to switch and i agreed. Genesis rang me pretty smartly and offered cash and 25% off my gas and a small reduction in electricity so I'm staying as i use gas for heating and hot water.

Craigs latest update on thegentailers suggest that trust power are the main cause of churn currently and unlikely to stop for 18 months.

And if correct the below is not good.
Flick and Electric Kiwi point the way for product differentiation, billing disclosureand risk premiums
A new threat has emerged, which in our view removes the possibility that historical gentailerpremiums will return. New electricity retailer Flick has highlighted the consumer thirst for a spotproduct and bills customers in a way that clearly defines all the cost components of the bill making comparability easy. Electric Kiwi is a low cost technology driven offering that offers afixed priced residential contract, covered by the forward ASX hedge curve. This offering capswhere risk cover pricing can head. It is our view that any premium for risk mitigation by having agentailer model will likely be arbitraged away by the combination of technology and clarity ofwhat is being paid by that customer for the risk.

top picks a buy on CEN and MEL Hold on GNE and MRP and TPW.

[Bobdn]

Cool, NZO confirms even more gas and oil in Kupe. At this rate this field will never run out and Genesis dividends will flow for decades to come.

Naturally the market greeted the news with a 1.5% drop for GNE. So passive aggressive