GNE - Genesis Energy

[Bobdn]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12115833

That's reassuring. When Kupe came online in 2009 (after a 13 year gestation!) the initial estimates were for the field to be around until 2027 I recall.

[Beagle]

Got to get with the program mate, its all about normalised profit and in the case of gentailiers, cash flow. EBITDA is the key figure to concentrate on.
Looking ahead its easy enough to make a case that those looking through the near term dividend are investing based on a 9%+ gross yield.
$2.54 less the near term dividend 8.6 cps due back shortly gives a net investment of $2.454 taking a FY19 and beyond view. Gross divvies expected next year (8.6 + 8.6) plus inflation..(board has a policy of matching inflation with growth in divvies), gives about 17.5 cps assuming 1.5% inflation in FY19 and if this is 80% imputed as before this gives 17.5 / 0.776 = 22.55 cps gross.
22.55 / 245.4 = 9.19% gross yield taking a FY19 investment case perspective. That gross yield grows in line with inflation going forward so you can see why this is an attractive stock from a yield perspective.

Most people tend to look at the stock and work the historical yield. I like to look through near term dividends and extrapolate out and look at the forward yield to see what the forward investment case really looks like.

Ran the numbers this afternoon on the whole look through dividend thing to see FY19 yield investment case at $2.45 cum divvy. Got 9.5% gross for FY19.
Pretty damm impressive considering it gets upgraded for inflation each year. Free investment lunch on offer for dividend hounds at today's closing price in my opinion.
Disc: I topped up at the close at $2.45.

[couta1]

Ran the numbers this afternoon on the whole look through dividend thing to see FY19 yield investment case at $2.45 cum divvy. Got 9.5% gross for FY19.
Pretty damm impressive considering it gets upgraded for inflation each year. Free investment lunch on offer for dividend hounds at today's closing price in my opinion.
Disc: I topped up at the close at $2.45.

HaHa I bought some at close last night also but not a normal Couta sized holding, just a wee lot.

[Beagle]

HaHa I bought some at close last night also but not a normal Couta sized holding, just a wee lot.

Great minds think alike

[Beagle]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU181...r-drilling.htm

[Bobdn]

Looks like hydro lakes are down a bit. This is now the second week where both Huntly coal/gas burning Rankine Units have been operating 24/7.

https://www.transpower.co.nz/power-system-live-data

https://www2.electricityinfo.co.nz/

[Jantar]

Looks like hydro lakes are down a bit. This is now the second week where both Huntly coal/gas burning Rankine Units have been operating 24/7.

https://www.transpower.co.nz/power-system-live-data

https://www2.electricityinfo.co.nz/

The issue at the moment is that there is a severe gas shortage for generation. This is forcing hydro to go harder and coal to be used.

[blackcap]

The issue at the moment is that there is a severe gas shortage for generation. This is forcing hydro to go harder and coal to be used.

And the rain that they hoped for maybe did not quite fall in the quantities predicted over the last few days? I could be wrong, but the lakes are still pretty low, at about 80% of average and 44% of capacity. Another 2 weeks of dry weather could make things interesting.

Jantar, what is causing the gas shortage?

[Sideshow Bob]

The issue at the moment is that there is a severe gas shortage for generation. This is forcing hydro to go harder and coal to be used.

This weekend's weather should help. But went past Pukaki & Tekapo the other day and seemed low for time of year....

Looks like all the lakes are below average, but average snow still there for the time of year.

[Bobdn]

And the rain that they hoped for maybe did not quite fall in the quantities predicted over the last few days? I could be wrong, but the lakes are still pretty low, at about 80% of average and 44% of capacity. Another 2 weeks of dry weather could make things interesting.

Jantar, what is causing the gas shortage?

I wondered that too. I see Genesis' last quarterly up date mentioned supply issues from the Pohokura field. Is it more of the same?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pohokura_field

Energy Link reports that:

Spot prices remain high, driven it seems by a combination of factors including e3p output constrained below typical levels, a long outage on one unit at the Stratford peaker, and low output from southern hydro lakes especially Tekapo and Pukaki.

https://www.energylink.co.nz/publications/energy-trendz-daily