GNE - Genesis Energy

[macduffy]

Genesis is probably being hit harder by C-19 than any of the other gentailers. The low inflows in the North Island, coupled with the extended outage at Tekapo B will keep its cost of generation higher than expected. On the flip side is that the huge decrease in commercial and industrial demand means there is more gas available at a cheaper price, so the cost of running the big machine at Huntly should be a bit lower as well.

But will it be needed if electricity demand remains low?

[Cyclical]

Genesis is probably being hit harder by C-19 than any of the other gentailers. The low inflows in the North Island, coupled with the extended outage at Tekapo B will keep its cost of generation higher than expected. On the flip side is that the huge decrease in commercial and industrial demand means there is more gas available at a cheaper price, so the cost of running the big machine at Huntly should be a bit lower as well.

But then they have their own gas supply there in Kupe... Whether they are net suppliers or consumers, I don't know.

They'll certainly be happy to have good hedging in place for the oil ATM.

"Oil price hedging in place for the next 12 months consists of a 63% weighting priced at USD58/bbl."

[Jantar]

But will it be needed if electricity demand remains low?

They have been running throughout the Level 4 lockdown.

Edit: I just checked em6live, and they even have one of their coal fired machines running today.

[macduffy]

Thanks, Jantar. I assume that this means that it's cheaper to run some thermal generation to meet customer demand than to buy from the wholesale market.

[Jantar]

Thanks, Jantar. I assume that this means that it's cheaper to run some thermal generation to meet customer demand than to buy from the wholesale market.

Wholesale prices are quite low at the moment, but looking at the national load profile, demand over the evening peaks is very high.

Large thermal plant cannot be simply shutdown and restarted when required. For a unit like Huntly's unit 5 it can take hours to shut down properly and even longer to restart. Every start carries with a cost in equivalent hours running which often makes it cheaper to run at a small loss for low demand periods to be on full load for the time it is really needed.

Gas is ordered for this running at around 2:00 pm each day for the following day, and there are 4 windows during each day when gas amounts can be adjusted somewhat. Any gas committed and not used is cashed out at a very low price, so it becomes cheaper to simply burn it at a loss than not use it all.

The coal unit is running at less than half load, so I suspect it is being used to provide reserve and also be ready for the evening peak.

Now that I am retired I no longer have access to specific contracts, so a lot of this is speculation based on how I know the power companies have acted in the past.

[macduffy]

Thanks, Jantar. That explains a lot!

[thedrunkfish]

Wholesale prices are quite low at the moment, but looking at the national load profile, demand over the evening peaks is very high.

Large thermal plant cannot be simply shutdown and restarted when required. For a unit like Huntly's unit 5 it can take hours to shut down properly and even longer to restart. Every start carries with a cost in equivalent hours running which often makes it cheaper to run at a small loss for low demand periods to be on full load for the time it is really needed.

Gas is ordered for this running at around 2:00 pm each day for the following day, and there are 4 windows during each day when gas amounts can be adjusted somewhat. Any gas committed and not used is cashed out at a very low price, so it becomes cheaper to simply burn it at a loss than not use it all.

The coal unit is running at less than half load, so I suspect it is being used to provide reserve and also be ready for the evening peak.

Now that I am retired I no longer have access to specific contracts, so a lot of this is speculation based on how I know the power companies have acted in the past.

Thanks for your informative posts, makes great reading for the layperson.

From your experience how will large amounts of the commercial and industrial facilities coming online next week affect pricing and demand levels?

[mcdongle]

Anyone watched Planet of the Humans yet??

[blackcap]

Anyone watched Planet of the Humans yet??

started watching it. Got to about the 30 min mark. Will finish watching later. Interesting premise explained here:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/...ll-movie-here/

[iceman]

Thanks jantar. Post 2765 very informative and helpful