GNE - Genesis Energy

[Snoopy]

Snoopy me ol Beagle mate, I'm happy to send you a copy of Forbar's $3.90 valuation. PM me your email address.

Thanks, but I was more interested in flyinglizard's opinion than Forbar's!

SNOOPY

[Shareguy]

For bar upgraded again based on released performance report to $4.00. States 6.2 percent yield for 2021. Low Pe compared to pairs . What’s not to like..

[Snoopy]

For bar upgraded again based on released performance report to $4.00. States 6.2 percent yield for 2021. Low Pe compared to pairs . What’s not to like..

I would say there are plenty of points to ponder before investing in Genesis Energy.

1/ Genesis can't afford to build new power stations. 'Their' new windfarm will be leased from Tilt.

2/ IMO Huntley is a dead duck in the medium term. The booster Rankine units cannot be upgraded because IIRC, Jantar has told us that the boilers that feed them are old and uneconomic to replace. The base load 'Unit 5' will come under pressure as soon as this year. Mercury's new Turitea wind farm means that the Waikato river power stations, also owned by Mercury, will be able to operate in a more discretionary way (i.e. being used as a hydro storage battery). That is formidable competition for Huntley.

3/ The demise of Huntley will reduce the value of the Genesis's gas assets at Kupe, which are in decline anyway.

4/ The projected cashflows from Flyinglizards spreadsheet don't appear to allow for any serious reinvestment to replace the dying Genesis assets.

Taking a short term view Genesis is fine. But in my view looking out to 2030, I don't see Genesis as having a viable business model. From a long term cashflow perspective, they may be bankrupt already.

SNOOPY


discl: ex-sharehoilder

[winner69]

They not going broke are they Snoopy

[Snoopy]

They not going broke are they Snoopy

I did take notice of flyinglizards spreadsheet with free cashflow accelerating again from 2027 and was wondering what was behind this. Maybe since selling out I have missed the long term planning that will see this forecast increasing cashflow become reality? GNE certainly won't go broke if flyinglizards cashflows come to pass. But I was curious what was behind this flyinglizardmodel. Maybe flyinglizard will enlighten us, and reduce your cold sweat at the same time Winner?

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Thanks, but I was more interested in flyinglizard's opinion than Forbar's!

SNOOPY

The market seems to think Forbar's $3.90 valuation has more credibility. Up a whole $1 (35%) since making my large quasi term deposit in Sept 2020. Pretty rewarding for such "questionable" assets you reckon they have ! Maybe, just maybe, the whole ESG environmental thing is more than a little over hyped ?

[arekaywhy]

... Maybe, just maybe, the whole ESG environmental thing is more than a little over hyped ?

it's not fashionable to carry rosary beads any more, so the next big signal of virtue is...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The market seems to think Forbar's $3.90 valuation has more credibility. Up a whole $1 (35%) since making my large quasi term deposit in Sept 2020. Pretty rewarding for such "questionable" assets you reckon they have ! Maybe, just maybe, the whole ESG environmental thing is more than a little over hyped ?

I backed the truck up when it dipped back to $2.80 support in September too. Had a bit of money come off term deposit recently, but unfortunately ANZ wasn't willing to match GNE's rates.

[Beagle]

[QUOTE]

I backed the truck up when it dipped back to $2.80 support in September too. Had a bit of money come off term deposit recently, but unfortunately ANZ wasn't willing to match GNE's rates.[/QUOTE]

Well done and LOL. Don;t think I'll bother asking BNZ to match anyone's rates when another of my term deposits matures tomorrow. Check out their "wonderful" term deposit rates here
https://www.bnz.co.nz/personal-banki...rates-and-fees and have a guess whether I'll be reinvesting with them or not lol

[ratkin]

[QUOTE=Beagle;869782]

Well done and LOL. Don;t think I'll bother asking BNZ to match anyone's rates when another of my term deposits matures tomorrow. Check out their "wonderful" term deposit rates here
https://www.bnz.co.nz/personal-banki...rates-and-fees and have a guess whether I'll be reinvesting with them or not lol

They about the same everywhere, pretty much all under 1% I have another 100k coming off on the 5th not liking the markets much now, very hard to find a safe haven.