GNE - Genesis Energy

[Jantar]

... Over winter, 600MW of power from the South Island is still available to top up seasonal power demand in the north via the HVDC link. That can't be good news for Genesis Energy.

SNOOPY

That 600 MW for the HVDC related to the old mercury arc valves that were decommissioned around 1990. The current HVDC link is capable of over 1200 MW, if sufficient North Island reserve can be found. A practical limit is probably around 840 MW.

[Waikaka]

Do you have any knowledge in this area?

Surely all the engineers in the world have considered earthquakes and piped gas. I mean the whole of Europe depends on it. So I am calling you on this as to whether there is an actual danger here.
Even a broken pipe giving rise to a gas leak isnt a disaster unless it ignites under pressure so please explain what the risks are more clearly.

I was hoping they would reply but I have some experience in this area so might as well wade in instead of just lurking.

Reticulated gas systems are a well known primary source of ignition after earthquake. Wellington is particularly prone to this with the high pressure gas main holding significant amounts of gas, entering wellington city in Thornden (wooden buildings and vegetation), directly adjacent to the wellington fault and plenty of strong winds to mobilise the fires.

"Ignition models estimate the number and locations of ignitions after an earthquake. Ignitions following earthquakes are most commonly caused by damage to electrical or gas supply systems, including mains breaks and overturning of appliances. For example, in the 1994 Northridge, USA earthquake there were over 250 failures in the gas network (CSSC 2002). Of the 110 ignitions, 54 were related to gas failures. The vast majority of ignitions occurred in
wood-frame residential structures that are highly susceptible to fire."

"Wellington City has many of the characteristics that make it susceptible to FFE, including the potential for conflagrations and significant losses (e.g. property, infrastructure and casualties). Wellington is in a zone of high seismic hazard, with the highest contributing earthquake source being the Wellington Fault, producing a typical earthquake magnitude of MW 7.5 and having approximately a 10% chance of rupturing within 100 years (Rhoades et al. 2011). For a Wellington Fault rupture scenario, earthquake damage may cause widespread ignitions, particularly from physical damage to reticulated gas pipes and electrical networks. Secondary perils including liquefaction and landslides may also cause damage. Factors that exacerbate the risk of fire spread following an earthquake in Wellington include: a high proportion of wooden structures; closely spaced buildings; steep slopes; high wind zones; and vegetation as a potential fuel source. Widespread damage to water supply and transport networks are likely to make firefighting difficult, and fire service resources are likely to be very stretched (Fire and Emergency New Zealand, pers. comm. 2018)."

So yes the threat of gas in our capital city at least, is very real and being modelled by researchers and engineers.

I took these quotes from GNS report:

Scheele FR, Horspool NA. 2018. Modelling fire following earthquake in Wellington: a review of globally available methodologies. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS Science. 23 p. (GNS Science report; 2017/42). doi:10.21420/G27S&V.

[Jerry]

Thank you for picking up the baton here, Waikaka. You are horribly right on all counts. Wgn is pretty good now, but a few years back, one could smell gas escapes in quite a few localities, especially at the Railway Stn end of Lambton Quay. I have no doubt the engineers have installed as many fail-safe systems as are possible for quakes up to a given magnitude, but shifts across faults and landslides actually breaking a pipe open are hard to cater for.
The Wellington area, across to the East Coast and north to Dannevirke has been 'stuck' for about fifteen years while the bit further north is shifting westwards. The tearing-point is Pongaroa - famous nowhere except the Geonet app on your phone. The Levin side is the down-going plate and still has little quakes, releasing tension. The Wellington bit will presumably catch up and release tension at some time and make a mess while it does so.

[macduffy]

I wonder how much weight has been given to this problem when considering the intensification of housing in parts of Wellington?

[winner69]

Still keeping an eye on my term deposit that it GNE

Yield currently 4.8% and trending down ....hmm

The difference between GNE yield and 5 yr Govt stock is now down to 3,7% (even less v 10 yr) - about as low as its got

Maybe not really being 'rewarded' for the risk involved in holding GNE

[Beagle]

Still keeping an eye on my term deposit that it GNE

Yield currently 4.8% and trending down ....hmm

The difference between GNE yield and 5 yr Govt stock is now down to 3,7% (even less v 10 yr) - about as low as its got

Maybe not really being 'rewarded' for the risk involved in holding GNE

Looks like you may have forgotten about the imputation credits. Based on 17.5 cps annual divvy and 80% imputation I get 17.5 / 0.776 = 22.55 / 365 = 6.2% gross yield. 10 year was 1.7% last time I looked yesterday so we're talking about a 4.5% premium to the 10 year rate. Seems pretty reasonable to me. On the TA front I note is basically bounced off the 100 day MA very recently so that provides some encouragement to hold.

[winner69]

Looks like you may have forgotten about the imputation credits. Based on 17.5 cps annual divvy and 80% imputation I get 17.5 / 0.776 = 22.55 / 365 = 6.2% gross yield. 10 year was 1.7% last time I looked yesterday so we're talking about a 4.5% premium to the 10 year rate. Seems pretty reasonable to me. On the TA front I note is basically bounced off the 100 day MA very recently so that provides some encouragement to hold.

Used net yield for model as imputation % seems to change.

What I was saying current yield is about as low as its got since floated and that the gap to the 5 year govt stock rate is now close to 4.0% points which is way below average since floating and way below 6.5% points it has been. The difference I see as the company risk factor and today it's the 'riskiest' its been.

Just shows that in low interest rate environments overall return expectations (stocks and other investments) diminish as well - like once expected 10% pa and now happy with 5% pa.

Never mind, that's life

That's life

[Beagle]

Imputation percentage has been 80% for quite some years mate, just saying. Not one of my highest conviction positions but much better than a term deposit that's for sure.
Recent numbers reported were absolutely stunning. Happy to just follow the money and leave all the ESG considerations to the other Beagle who seems to care about them.

[Monarch]

Why do you think the DRP was suspended? Not required anymore to reduce debt?

[Beagle]

Good question ? I have no idea, sorry.