GNE - Genesis Energy

[Muse]

GNE share price defying all logic ..... never before (since listing) has there been such a small gap between divie yield and 5 Year Govt stock

Conclusion - a real trap for those who have recently bought in or are contemplating seeking the seductive yield .... you might lose a lot of capital.

But then again logic means nothing in these weird times .....or this time things are really different

can't be as bad as contact energy! I've been impressed with how resilient its share price has been. i'd like to acquire more CEN shares but not at these levels!

according to marketscreener genesis has yield of 6.25% at spot price, CEN is only 4.5%.

5yr bond is 3.39% and 10yr is 3.45%

not a lot excess return i'll agree!

[percy]

Well let me think this through.
Say 10 years ago I put $17,500 into a bond paying 4%...I would have today my bond worth $17,500 and would have received $700 a year interest .Total return $17,500 plus $7000 interest...= $24,500.
Luckily I bought a thousand GNE at $17,500.Think they have been paying 6% [plus] divies ie $1,050 a year.
At today's share price my $17,500 has grown to $28,400 and I have received 10,500 in divies Total return $38,900 or 58.77% more than I would have with bonds.
I can not see my power bill coming down in the next 5 to 10 years,and GNE have and are improving their generation at Tekapo [ better generators],so I will keep my GNE and leave bonds to others.

[winner69]

Fair enough - yes shares better than bonds

Suppose those who bought GNE for 4 bucks January last year will get their capital back in full one day ..... but their overall long term return has been significantly reduced ....compared to your tremendous return

[percy]

Fair enough - yes shares better than bonds

Suppose those who bought GNE for 4 bucks January last year will get their capital back in full one day ..... but their overall long term return has been significantly reduced ....compared to your tremendous return

Yes however in the meantime they are enjoying the 17.5cps divie.
Think it was the huge US Renewable Energy index funds that paid the big prices.
Current yield of 6.16% is attractive in my opinion.
On our drive out to Pegasus and Kaiapoi I noted the huge amount of building going on.No flues and few solar panels.
More electric cars,bikes and buses on the roads.All use electricity.Growing demand.
A matter again of being in the right sector at the right time.

Time for another of my stories.
Was sitting in Barrington Mall about 4 years ago talking to one of my book suppliers,who knew my hobby was the share market.He asked me if I was worried about the market outlook.I said look around and note all the electricity being used, and all the people on their phones.I told him I had shares in a power company and a phone company.He saw my point.

[Muse]

Yes however in the meantime they are enjoying the 17.5cps divie.
Think it was the huge US Renewable Energy index funds that paid the big prices.
Current yield of 6.16% is attractive in my opinion.
On our drive out to Pegasus and Kaiapoi I noted the huge amount of building going on.No flues and few solar panels.
More electric cars,bikes and buses on the roads.All use electricity.Growing demand.
A matter again of being in the right sector at the right time.

Time for another of my stories.
Was sitting in Barrington Mall about 4 years ago talking to one of my book suppliers,who knew my hobby was the share market.He asked me if I was worried about the market outlook.I said look around and note all the electricity being used, and all the people on their phones.I told him I had shares in a power company and a phone company.He saw my point.

Ha nice one percy - very fine points

[RupertBear]

Ha nice one percy - very fine points

Wise man that Percy

[Sideshow Bob]

FY22 Q3 Performance Report - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange

Genesis continues to deliver improvements in customer loyalty through Power Shout and the home move experience. Brand satisfaction is at a record high and customer churn is down below 13%. Carbon emissions were down 63% on last year, driven by increased hydro inflows, higher gas production and a full quarter’s production of Waipipi wind.
Marc England, Chief Executive
Retail
• Brand Net Promoter Score of 29 points. Up 11 points on pcp.
• Gas Netback of $17.5/GJ. Up 54% on pcp.
• 67% of new C&I customers signed up to Energy Services in FY22 year to date.
Wholesale
• Genesis lakes finished the quarter with 421 GWh of hydro storage, 132% of average.
• Generation emissions of 404 kT CO2. Down 63% on pcp.
• Portfolio fuel cost of $61/MWh. Down 6% on pcp.
Kupe
• Gas production of 2.9 PJ. Up 21% on pcp.
• LPG production of 11.9 kt. Up 13% on pcp.
• Realised oil price of $99/bbl. Up 27% on pcp.

[Beagle]

Q3 report looks pretty good to me. Only thing holding this back in my opinion is rising 10 year Government bond rates.
Did note that the decline in Kupe output was a little quicker than they anticipated after the compression project. Also they have far too much forward cover on oil prices and are not getting much of the benefit from the current very high spot prices. Hydrology looks good. Good hold, (recession proof), for 8.1% forecast gross yield in FY23, (assumes 80% imputation rate remains). (17.6 / 0.776) / 280.

Disc: I have a significant stake and added more recently on share price weakness.

[stoploss]

Q3 report looks pretty good to me. Only thing holding this back in my opinion is rising 10 year Government bond rates.
Did note that the decline in Kupe output was a little quicker than they anticipated after the compression project. Also they have far too much forward cover on oil prices and are not getting much of the benefit from the current very high spot prices. Hydrology looks good. Good hold, (recession proof), for 8.1% forecast gross yield in FY23, (assumes 80% imputation rate remains). (17.6 / 0.776) / 280.

Disc: I have a significant stake and added more recently on share price weakness.

Asking for a friend , 'you're not buying in a downtrend are you ?"

[Beagle]

Asking for a friend , 'you're not buying in a downtrend are you ?"

LOL you cheeky bugger. Have another look at the chart mate. "Blind Freddy" can see its built a base around this level for more than 3 months now.