GNE - Genesis Energy

[winner69]

Great divie yield if buying at the moment and good capital gain as well over next year from todays price

Win win it seems / like can’t lose

[alokdhir]

Good buying under 250 eh alokdhir …..even though there was a possibility of it going to 220 if the difference to govt stock was going to be maintained. My apologies if anybody listened and missed out on cheap ones but it’s not my fault punters are happy taking on more ‘risk’ than ever before.

So from here if GNE is seen as a safe haven from recessions / inflation then punters might be excited at getting a 7% gross yield ……jeez share price might get back to 370 odd next year …. big capital windfall for some.

That’ll test a few ‘investors’ resolve (and mine) …..sell and take the big gain (and a divie or two) of more than 50% in my case or just sit tight and collect the 9% pa divie (on purchase price)

Not a problem for those who’ve bought solely for the dividend and will hold forever

Very good buying mate ...my average of a large holding after adding few recently too is $ 2.48 ....Craigs target of $ 3.80 is very possible in 18-24 months ....till then enjoy big dividends ...Cant go wrong with this bond proxy near peak of rates fever ...this is more related with longer term rates like 10Year Bonds and 5 years maybe then short term . With market getting more and more certain of longer term recession and deep also so longer term rates are under check thus GNE SP is well supported

GNE from past shows good buying around $ 2.50 and good selling around $ 3.75 ....it keeps touching both goal posts periodically .

Buy and hold also works as their dividends are pretty reliable and BIG

[alokdhir]

Great divie yield if buying at the moment and good capital gain as well over next year from todays price

Win win it seems / like can’t lose

Just to know your thoughts on this important topic during such high inflationary times mate ....What u think should happen to EV of businesses based on replacement cost analysis ...I am pretty sure to replace the assets of GNE or say any business at present maybe more then double then their present valuations suggest ...Does this play any role in deciding SP targets or only based on DCF etc

[winner69]

Jeez .... Craigs have a target of $3.80 .... and I was only talking 360/370

What can go wrong

[winner69]

Just to know your thoughts on this important topic during such high inflationary times mate ....What u think should happen to EV of businesses based on replacement cost analysis ...I am pretty sure to replace the assets of GNE or say any business at present maybe more then double then their present valuations suggest ...Does this play any role in deciding SP targets or only based on DCF etc

Have to think deeply about that ..... but replacement values seem to be important in property companies

[Muse]

Some interesting trading patterns around GNE share price & relative movements against the NZ 10yr bond.

2022 YTD GNE's share price has a negative correlation against the 10 year bond of .682, suggesting a fairly strong correlation that as bond yields move up GNE's share price falls, or as bond yields fall fall GNE's SP rises.

The cumulative correlation has moved around during the year, IE if you measured it from the start of june it would be -0.72, peaking at about -.83 in mid june.

That trading correlation completely broke down from 6 july...with bond yields rising from 3.6% to 3.74%, and GNE's SP rising from 2.71 to 2.82

as an investor not bothered but food for thought from an accumulating or trading pov

[xafalcon]

Some interesting trading patterns around GNE share price & relative movements against the NZ 10yr bond.

2022 YTD GNE's share price has a negative correlation against the 10 year bond of .682, suggesting a fairly strong correlation that as bond yields move up GNE's share price falls, or as bond yields fall fall GNE's SP rises.

The cumulative correlation has moved around during the year, IE if you measured it from the start of june it would be -0.72, peaking at about -.83 in mid june.

That trading correlation completely broke down from 6 july...with bond yields rising from 3.6% to 3.74%, and GNE's SP rising from 2.71 to 2.82

as an investor not bothered but food for thought from an accumulating or trading pov

University year 1 statistics. Correlation coefficient below 0.9 shows very little association between the two data sets. So don't read much into it

[Muse]

University year 1 statistics. Correlation coefficient below 0.9 shows very little association between the two data sets. So don't read much into it

That's not how I recall it

[Rawz]

swap rates creeping back up again?

[winner69]

Some interesting trading patterns around GNE share price & relative movements against the NZ 10yr bond.

2022 YTD GNE's share price has a negative correlation against the 10 year bond of .682, suggesting a fairly strong correlation that as bond yields move up GNE's share price falls, or as bond yields fall fall GNE's SP rises.

The cumulative correlation has moved around during the year, IE if you measured it from the start of june it would be -0.72, peaking at about -.83 in mid june.

That trading correlation completely broke down from 6 july...with bond yields rising from 3.6% to 3.74%, and GNE's SP rising from 2.71 to 2.82

as an investor not bothered but food for thought from an accumulating or trading pov

That's a pretty strong correlation FM

Think if you ran the numbers since they floated it would be stronger still

My model on monthly closes since IPO shows 10 Year Govt explains nearly 60% of the GNE divie yield .... and my Stats 101 says that's pretty high'