GNE - Genesis Energy

[alokdhir]

Pityit did't get close to 2.25 but punters got that TINA thing

Always good buying in the 240s eh

What was Craigs target again - they pretty good at guessing I'm told

With todays 10 year Bond closing yield of 3.274% ....GNE should be $ 3.14 if at 4.284 it was at 2.40 in mid June

Craigs has $ 3.80 target ...its 12 months target given in June ...

[winner69]

With todays 10 year Bond closing yield of 3.274% ....GNE should be $ 3.14 if at 4.284 it was at 2.40 in mid June

Craigs has $ 3.80 target ...its 12 months target given in June ...

Alokdhir - the 10 year govt rate not having any bearing on the GNE share price / yield at the moment. If that correlation was in play indicative share price is about $2.60

The other 40% of factors are in play currently .... profits, market conditions, investor sentiment, TINA etc etc

[xafalcon]

Pityit did't get close to 2.25 but punters got that TINA thing

I'm not on board with your TINA theory

GNE SP slump was at the peak of "doom and gloom". Since then the data indicates RBNZ is unlikely to raise interest rates as high as they forecasted in the last MPS. Wholesale interest rates have fallen dramatically. Oil prices ha dropped significantly. International shipping is freeing up. Employment worldwide is very high. NZD exchange rate is favourable for exporters. GNE had plenty of generation at Huntly due to low SI lake inflows, and high oil and gas prices assist their value. And of course there is a sizable dividend around the corner

So I think SP rebound is based on fundamentals

[alokdhir]

Alokdhir - the 10 year govt rate not having any bearing on the GNE share price / yield at the moment. If that correlation was in play indicative share price is about $2.60

The other 40% of factors are in play currently .... profits, investor sentiment, TINA etc etc

I was just referring to recent relationship of June lows with 10 years highs ....not your long term one as that includes extended period of ultra low yields due to many factors but mainly Covid shock .

For me as also for RBNZ 2 to 2.5 % OCR is neutral levels so 10 years of 2.5 % is neutral yields not 0.5 % which we saw in early 2021

[fish]

If we do the maths, just on the storage aspect

NZ's cheapest EV is $50k for 45kWh. Call it $1000/KWh

Lake Onslow is 5TWh = 5,000,000,000KWh

So the cost of using EV's to store the same amount of energy as Lake Onslow is $5T (with a T)

Current cost estimate of Lake Onslow is $3-4B (with a B)

I feel you are miscalculating costs.
Have you inflation adjusted cost of lake onslow? Allowed for all compensation,resource consents,delays etc
v2g is only a one of many diversified means to cover for power peaks.
The cost is minimal and nothing on government funding-it is born by individual owners of ev and solar who would get a significant return on their investment .

[mfd]

I feel you are miscalculating costs.
Have you inflation adjusted cost of lake onslow? Allowed for all compensation,resource consents,delays etc
v2g is only a one of many diversified means to cover for power peaks.
The cost is minimal and nothing on government funding-it is born by individual owners of ev and solar who would get a significant return on their investment .

I calculated a similar price in the single figure trillions of dollars to achieve the same storage with Tesla power walls, and a need to install something like 150 power walls per household in NZ to match Onslow's storage. We simply cannot achieve this with batteries with current or near future technology.

Nobody thinks that Onslow can make a reasonable profit doing this job at a build cost of several billion dollars, I do not see anyone making money doing this job at a cost of several trillion dollars.

[xafalcon]

I feel you are miscalculating costs.
Have you inflation adjusted cost of lake onslow? Allowed for all compensation,resource consents,delays etc
v2g is only a one of many diversified means to cover for power peaks.
The cost is minimal and nothing on government funding-it is born by individual owners of ev and solar who would get a significant return on their investment .

I have used the latest cost estimate from the Lake Onslow project. It is as accurate as a cost prediction can be. It includes the undergrounding of all infrastructure, which is a significant additional cost to above ground construction. So there is a lower cost option available. However, no amount of cost creep will come anywhere near to bridging the thousandfold gap

By way of comparison of pumped hydro vs battery storage I will offer the following example. I build home storage battery solutions for solar power based on repurposing end of (vehicle) life Nissan Leaf battery modules. My cost to build is $350-450/KWh. This represents an absolute minimum battery storage cost using lithium battery tech. So it us still about 400% more expensive to store energy in a battery than in a lake

Batteries also have a relatively short lifetime compared to hydro. 15 years vs 100 years. Lakes don't mind being full of water for months on end, Batteries deteriorate much more quickly if they are held at a full charge

You are welcome to share your alternative maths if you believe I have made a fundamental mistake

[fish]

I have used the latest cost estimate from the Lake Onslow project. It is as accurate as a cost prediction can be. It includes the undergrounding of all infrastructure, which is a significant additional cost to above ground construction. So there is a lower cost option available. However, no amount of cost creep will come anywhere near to bridging the thousandfold gap

By way of comparison of pumped hydro vs battery storage I will offer the following example. I build home storage battery solutions for solar power based on repurposing end of (vehicle) life Nissan Leaf battery modules. My cost to build is $350-450/KWh. This represents an absolute minimum battery storage cost using lithium battery tech. So it us still about 400% more expensive to store energy in a battery than in a lake

Batteries also have a relatively short lifetime compared to hydro. 15 years vs 100 years. Lakes don't mind being full of water for months on end, Batteries deteriorate much more quickly if they are held at a full charge

You are welcome to share your alternative maths if you believe I have made a fundamental mistake

Thank you for your insight.
I now understand your thinking-ie battery storage is very expensive compared to pumped hydro.
I hope you also understand mine-there are alternatives to onslow . Estimates of the cost of think big tend to be hugely under the real costs encountered (which cannot be mathematically calculated as maths require precision )
There are many diverse lower cost alternatives to onslow-you may have noticed the redactions on the latest report for alternative sites of pumped hydro on a smaller scale.

[winner69]

It’s likely some punters will only be interested in divie yields next year …..some say interest rates have already peaked and next year they will be a lot lower than they are now.

Maybe a 6% gross yield will be attractive next year …especially so if it’s coming from a safe utility

On forecast dividends that would give a $3.80/$4.00 share price for GNE this time next year

Seems GNE is.a BUY …a strong BUY at todays price.

don’t know if this is Craig’s thinking but heck they put a target of $3.81 didn’t they ….that’s spooky

[alokdhir]

It’s likely some punters will only be interested in divie yields next year …..some say interest rates have already peaked and next year they will be a lot lower than they are now.

Maybe a 6% gross yield will be attractive next year …especially so if it’s coming from a safe utility

On forecast dividends that would give a $3.80/$4.00 share price for GNE this time next year

Seems GNE is.a BUY …a strong BUY at todays price.

don’t know if this is Craig’s thinking but heck they put a target of $3.81 didn’t they ….that’s spooky

If its got 30% upside with high dividends while we wait for the capital gains ...then why its not running like mad ?

MCY seems to be doing better with much lesser dividend yield

Next week it should cross $ 3 and move towards $ 3.10 before its superb results on Friday

That should make W69 happy or no ??