GNE - Genesis Energy

[xafalcon]

I suppose the problem is you might want to burn the gas at Huntly but you wont be able to, as without a huge rebuild the Rankins just wont last to 2040.

Last winter Genesis needed to buy hugely expensive gas off Methanex and luckily for them Balance had a shut down so they could get enough gas. Presumably they had to pay out the nose to make it worth it for the industrials to reallocate that gas but that wont be guaranteed every year.

Then where will the grid stabilising power come from? Contact is shutting down their gas generation. Huntly is the " last man standing". Maybe a little more geothermal 100-200MW? That's only 10-20% of what's needed to replace Huntly. Like I said, keeping the lights on is a political necessity that trumps everything else. Relying on technology that hasn't been developed yet is a big gamble. I expect the government to underwrite R&M costs for keeping Huntly available for as long as its needed

That gas purchase can't have been too expensive, Genesis had a huge stock of thermal coal that wasn't burnt. And the way NZ power market operates, prices are set using the most expensive generation source. Hence why NZ electricity market is always managed "on the brink of shortage"

[Snoopy]

Take a few steps back and look at the big picture

NZ is approaching maximum intermittent generation capacity as a function of total generation capacity. This is necessary for grid stability, and for "keeping the lights on" during still winter nights. This is where Huntly is a necessary evil, until it can be replaced with something else (aka NZ battery project)

I am not going to let this one slide by. What is this 'maximum intermittent generation capacity?' I get it is related to 'total generation capacity'. But I think the calculation of 'maximum intermittent generating capacity may not be as straightforward as you imply.

For a start, why is all 'intermittent generation' being lumped together? It is clear that solar energy is best captured when the sun is shining brightest, It is also clear that wind energy is best captured when the wind is blowing strongest (up to a point anyway). But it is also clear to me that the time that the sun is shining brightest, is generally not the same timer as when the wind is blowing strongest. And it is certainly not true to say that how brightly the sun shines or how hard the wind blows are uniform numbers all over the country at any particular time. So it seems to me that what we need is some kind of 'correlated model' that mixes and matches generation patterns from different intermittent energy generation sources across time periods and across geographical regions. Do that and I suspect your 'maximum intermittent generation capacity' -as a percentage of total generation capacity- goes right up. This is all on the assumption that Transpower has sufficient cable capacity to move power from one end of the country to the other when required.

Thinking along these lines, I am of the view that most solar panel installations in New Zealand are set up incorrectly. Most solar panels just sit on the roof, matching whatever gabled angle the roof is constructed at. But the ideal angle for maximising solar power generation should exactly match the latitude of the site, which boutique Vodka drinkers will know is '42 below', - which translates to 42 degrees for 'centre of the country' Wellington dwellers (a much steeper rake than most roofs). Yet in my view, the solar panels should be at an ever steeper rake than 42 degrees. Why? Because in winter, the sun in lower in the sky. And from a national energy perspective, it is best to capture energy when it has the highest value, and that is during winter when demand is the highest. Thus although such high angle solar panel installations would be less efficient in terms of total energy captured, they would be more efficient in capturing energy at the time it was most needed.

Unfortunately the way the NZ energy market is set up, the gentailers pay poorly for excess customer generated electricity generally, and there are no bonus rates for micro-energy generated 'at the right time' from consumer sites. That means consumer incentivised electricity 'sell back' sales for peak power periods are destined to be an under utilized component in our electricity generation system.

SNOOPY

[kiora]

Grid stabilization

Likely that Onslow is never built?

"Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) researchers, collaborating with Group NIRE and Baylor University, demonstrated that modulating the rotation speed of wind turbine rotors can offer two important grid services—load balancing and stability management—among other potential benefits to provide flexibility and resilience on the grid."
https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/art...ergy%20demands.
https://www.windenergy.org.nz/improv...-in-technology

Offshore wind farms have more reliable wind?

[Snoopy]

Grid stabilization

Likely that Onslow is never built?

"Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) researchers, collaborating with Group NIRE and Baylor University, demonstrated that modulating the rotation speed of wind turbine rotors can offer two important grid services—load balancing and stability management—among other potential benefits to provide flexibility and resilience on the grid."
https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/art...ergy%20demands.
https://www.windenergy.org.nz/improv...-in-technology

Interesting article. The word 'stabilization' has different contexts in the generation of power. The purpose of Onslow would be to stabilize the supply of energy. But electric power generation has another measurement dimension called the frequency at which power is developed, measured in Hertz. As an example, power in NZ is supplied at 230/240 volts and 50 Hertz. I believe the article you have referenced is alluding to the stabilization of frequency of generation, not the quantum of energy being generated. From the article:

----------------

Load Balancing

A typical generator in a power plant has the ability to respond to sudden increases in power demand by sensing that more energy is being pulled from the plant than what is being produced. This response is triggered by detecting the reduction of rotating kinetic energy of the generator's turbine. In other words, when the turbine slows down instead of remaining at its usual speed, the plant controls recognize that the plant needs to produce more power.

------------------

If the change in demand for power caused the 'rotating speed' of the turbine to drop, that means the frequency of the power being generated is subtly changing. Such things can be managed downstream of where the power is generated by clever electronics. But I think what the article is alluding to is that by doing things like changing the angle of the wind turbine blades, you can change the speed at which the wind turbine rotor is rotating, even as the wind speed remains the same. Thus you can adjust the frequency of power generation at source, relieving the need for electronics to do the correction further down the line.

OTOH, you can store energy in a rotating device. Such a device is called a flywheel and you might consider a wind turbine as an example of this. However the practicality of storing energy like this in a wind turbine would likely be measured in seconds and minutes not hours or days. So we are talking of an energy storage capability many orders of magnitude less than the likes of a Lake Onslow, even if every wind-farm in New Zealand had this capability.

Offshore wind farms have more reliable wind?

I think the reliability of wind is entirely site dependent. Some offshore locations may have more reliable wind than onshore and vica versa. I don't think NZ is short of good prospective onshore locations at this time.

SNOOPY

[mcdongle]

Talking of solar panels....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-solar-panels/

[Snoopy]

Talking of solar panels....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-solar-panels/

"Britain has started burning coal to generate electricity for the first time in a month and a half, after the heatwave made solar panels too hot to work efficiently."

I must admit, that is the first I have heard of a problem like that!

SNOOPY

[workingdad]

Grid stabilization

Likely that Onslow is never built?

"Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) researchers, collaborating with Group NIRE and Baylor University, demonstrated that modulating the rotation speed of wind turbine rotors can offer two important grid services—load balancing and stability management—among other potential benefits to provide flexibility and resilience on the grid."
https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/art...ergy%20demands.
https://www.windenergy.org.nz/improv...-in-technology

Offshore wind farms have more reliable wind?

Lake onslow is one of the schemes being canned if National get in. The way things are shaping up…. I’m not counting on it

[kiora]

Grid stabilization

Likely that Onslow is never built?

"Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) researchers, collaborating with Group NIRE and Baylor University, demonstrated that modulating the rotation speed of wind turbine rotors can offer two important grid services—load balancing and stability management—among other potential benefits to provide flexibility and resilience on the grid."
https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/art...ergy%20demands.
https://www.windenergy.org.nz/improv...-in-technology

Offshore wind farms have more reliable wind?

Unlocking the power of oceans
https://www.marinepowersystems.co.uk/

[Swala]

Interesting read.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...issioner-warns

[xafalcon]

I am not going to let this one slide by. What is this 'maximum intermittent generation capacity?' I get it is related to 'total generation capacity'. But I think the calculation of 'maximum intermittent generating capacity may not be as straightforward as you imply.

For a start, why is all 'intermittent generation' being lumped together? It is clear that solar energy is best captured when the sun is shining brightest, It is also clear that wind energy is best captured when the wind is blowing strongest (up to a point anyway). But it is also clear to me that the time that the sun is shining brightest, is generally not the same timer as when the wind is blowing strongest. And it is certainly not true to say that how brightly the sun shines or how hard the wind blows are uniform numbers all over the country at any particular time. So it seems to me that what we need is some kind of 'correlated model' that mixes and matches generation patterns from different intermittent energy generation sources across time periods and across geographical regions. Do that and I suspect your 'maximum intermittent generation capacity' -as a percentage of total generation capacity- goes right up. This is all on the assumption that Transpower has sufficient cable capacity to move power from one end of the country to the other when required.

Thinking along these lines, I am of the view that most solar panel installations in New Zealand are set up incorrectly. Most solar panels just sit on the roof, matching whatever gabled angle the roof is constructed at. But the ideal angle for maximising solar power generation should exactly match the latitude of the site, which boutique Vodka drinkers will know is '42 below', - which translates to 42 degrees for 'centre of the country' Wellington dwellers (a much steeper rake than most roofs). Yet in my view, the solar panels should be at an ever steeper rake than 42 degrees. Why? Because in winter, the sun in lower in the sky. And from a national energy perspective, it is best to capture energy when it has the highest value, and that is during winter when demand is the highest. Thus although such high angle solar panel installations would be less efficient in terms of total energy captured, they would be more efficient in capturing energy at the time it was most needed.

Unfortunately the way the NZ energy market is set up, the gentailers pay poorly for excess customer generated electricity generally, and there are no bonus rates for micro-energy generated 'at the right time' from consumer sites. That means consumer incentivised electricity 'sell back' sales for peak power periods are destined to be an under utilized component in our electricity generation system.

SNOOPY

This might help you understand https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...-margin-almost

And I suggest the transpower Web site is worth a good read to get an understanding of various forms of generation and their capacities, the HVDC link capacities northbound and southbound, and also the demand curves for NI, SI and total NZ electricity

Applying some simple maths to the data will allow you to calculate approximately how close to the wind we are sailing at the moment

Even I did not realise it was as close as it turns out to be. I calculated about 250MW spare capacity. Turns out it was 50MW, which us far too close for comfort

Which makes a project like Lake Onslow an urgent necessity to green light, regardless of political leaning. Failure will directly reduce GDP as more industries turn to electricity for process heat

But meanwhile (the next 13 years at least), Huntly is a necessary evil no matter the cost or emissions