GNE - Genesis Energy

[workingdad]

Consistently successful long-term investing is rarely 'easy'. TA is just one of a bunch of tools available to an investor to assess whether & when they would be best to enter, or exit, an investment. At the least, it can make the decision making process a little easier for the investor.

I think many folk view TA as only being suitable for Traders. I beg to differ.

Sure, for medium/long term investors I wouldn't advocate that they only use the TA tool. However IMO, by using TA in conjunction with other tools & analysis, one can quite effectively evaluate & much better understand the market's view of the company. Therefore either further validating other information that one has gleaned from DD. Or, raising some red flags that may indicate some underlying, often 'hidden', issues. A basic premise to keep in mind is that a price chart will objectively show you WHAT has and is happening (and what MAY more likely happen in the more immediate future). A price chart can also give you a good read on what 'emotional state' the market participants were/are in. But unfortunately, it won't tell you all the reasons WHY it has/is happening.

In answering your question "at what point would buy signals show"? I subscribe to the view that for most medium/long-term investors, if using TA, it is best to keep the KISS theory top of mind.

More specifically use weekly price charts, or even better monthly, rather than using Hrly & Four Hrly (& maybe even daily) charts, which present far too much "noise" for most medium/long-term investors to effectively assess the situation.

Additionally, there is no need to over complicate things by placing multiple indicators on these big-picture charts.

They key objectives of taking this approach are to identify A) the actual medium/long term trend B) Any meaningful Support/Resistance Zones and key Pivot points.

In GNE's case, it has clearly been on a multi-month downtrend (Lower highs - Lower Lows). In fact, it has been pretty much one way traffic since April 2021. A 42% fall from the ATH to the recent low.

But....as I previously alluded price action is now occurring around an area of significant S/R (plus for the FIB geeks - $2.31 marks the 61.8% retracement). Volume has also picked up in recent weeks (which often happens around key turning points).

Some Green (pun intended) shoots perhaps? Are we now finally seeing a significant low forming? Only time will tell, but once the weekly chart starts consistently printing above circa $2.55 then it may be the time for the medium/long-term investor to pounce!

However, be aware & remain vigilant. IF, GNE breaks through this support zone, then IMO it would be much more likely that we would first see some sort of capitulation (bad news?) event.

Thank you FTG. Very thought invoking post and something to give due consideration.

I have looked at the charts of companies bought but never in any real detail or rather to the point that detail sways me one way or another given my thoughts that once I’ve bought anything can happen so look towards more safe bets (not that anything us safe).

I look at sky city casinos where one complaint resulting in an investigation and media coverage can cause such a massive drop, that’s luck (or unlucky) and something that can’t be accounted for so I tend to look at the business itself, assets, perceived risks and future prospects. Your comment on the chart reflecting the emotional state is a very good point and greatly appreciated.

I am mostly in term deposits at the moment, dabbling here and there with a few punts on limited companies such as GNE and more risky air nz with mixed results (doing well with air nz but if GNE breaks down I’ll take a hit). I do have some imputation credits to burn through so have had this as part of my decision making process.

Thanks for such a considered post

[X-men]

Well that is it!! SP back to $2.70 with today update

[bull....]

those who topped up in the low 2.40s looking very good at the moment

[bull....]

yea parts for huntly 5 are on express mail now i believe ... probably why up so aggressively

bull's forsight worked out well lol

[shareman]

Should be a strong recovery I'm the next few weeks, some good news out today

[winner69]

GNE close 239 yesterday …..back to 2017 prices

Seems 220’s on cards

[mike2020]

Why immediately post div? I mean if it was that predictable surely we would have all sold out at 2.54.

[Sideshow Bob]

GNE close 239 yesterday …..back to 2017 prices

Seems 220’s on cards

Could be good for those in the DRP.....

[xafalcon]

GNE close 239 yesterday …..back to 2017 prices

Seems 220’s on cards

Maybe you could share your wisdom by explaining WHY you believe this will happen eg. new information, TA, political environment, imminent regulation, fund divestment, Lake Onslow green light (by the blue team) etc

[winner69]

Maybe you could share your wisdom by explaining WHY you believe this will happen eg. new information, TA, political environment, imminent regulation, fund divestment, Lake Onslow green light (by the blue team) etc

As per my numerous posts over the last year or so based on the spread between the dividend yield and 10 year Govt stock rate….I call this the ‘risk premium’ modelled since GNE listed.

Over the last few months this risk premium has been the lowest it’s been since listing …punters have seen less risk in holding GNE than previously ….quite a bit below average.

Why I say 220’s on the card is 1) Things tend to revert to averages so that risk premium might increase meaning lower share price and 2) reading stuff about GNE seems to suggest there are a few ‘risks’ associated with their performance over the next year which also means that the risk premium might increase.

Insofar as 2) goes I confess that unlike you falcon my knowledge of the industry and the players is very limited. Never really studied it in depth as always seen these stocks as just a divie play and they seem to be rather consistent with those.

However the modelling of the yield/Govt stock is pretty robust and from an investor analytical point of view seems to make sense.