GNE - Genesis Energy

[pierre]

I would not own these shares and I am in the Industry.

Could you help us by elaborating on the reasons for your opinion?

[horus1]

The profitability of the Gen/Retailers is made by the high charges they are charging to domestic consumers. Energy is 15-20C/Kwhr whereas Tiwai get it for about 5.5c/Kwhr.with a gauranteed supply which domestics do not have. That is where the margins are in domestic . The generation is a near monopoly except for the fact that the price of solar and batteries are declining by about 10-15% per year. This is economic for customers now. When you look overseas the industry is being canibilised by the new technologies all driven out of a need to get rid of CO2. In NZ the industry is 65% non CO2,which is not the same as renewable, and when carbon taxes are applied at a realistic level electricity prices will go up substantially with consequential loss of volumes. On the other hand EV's will increase the electricity volumes but fuel cells will obliderate the industry.
make your own decisions.
I have along history ,successfully, in the Industry. Reformed it twice, and think the present EPR is a masterful political document which does not address the main problems in the industry.

[bull....]

The profitability of the Gen/Retailers is made by the high charges they are charging to domestic consumers. Energy is 15-20C/Kwhr whereas Tiwai get it for about 5.5c/Kwhr.with a gauranteed supply which domestics do not have. That is where the margins are in domestic . The generation is a near monopoly except for the fact that the price of solar and batteries are declining by about 10-15% per year. This is economic for customers now. When you look overseas the industry is being canibilised by the new technologies all driven out of a need to get rid of CO2. In NZ the industry is 65% non CO2,which is not the same as renewable, and when carbon taxes are applied at a realistic level electricity prices will go up substantially with consequential loss of volumes. On the other hand EV's will increase the electricity volumes but fuel cells will obliderate the industry.
make your own decisions.
I have along history ,successfully, in the Industry. Reformed it twice, and think the present EPR is a masterful political document which does not address the main problems in the industry.

what you say could well be true , but dont you think it will be years before batteries ever get powerful enough to replace power stations and i cant see the govt providing subsidies for people to get solar therefore it still remains an uneconomic proposition for most people

[Beagle]

The profitability of the Gen/Retailers is made by the high charges they are charging to domestic consumers. Energy is 15-20C/Kwhr whereas Tiwai get it for about 5.5c/Kwhr.with a gauranteed supply which domestics do not have. That is where the margins are in domestic . The generation is a near monopoly except for the fact that the price of solar and batteries are declining by about 10-15% per year. This is economic for customers now. When you look overseas the industry is being canibilised by the new technologies all driven out of a need to get rid of CO2. In NZ the industry is 65% non CO2,which is not the same as renewable, and when carbon taxes are applied at a realistic level electricity prices will go up substantially with consequential loss of volumes. On the other hand EV's will increase the electricity volumes but fuel cells will obliderate the industry.
make your own decisions.
I have along history ,successfully, in the Industry. Reformed it twice, and think the present EPR is a masterful political document which does not address the main problems in the industry.

You've "conveniently"? over looked the fact included in the retail price is about 9 cents per kw/hr charged by Transpower for transmission charges.
The only people I know that are putting in solar are the very wealthy. Joe average simply cannot afford the up front capex and if they borrow the money the payback is so long most people wouldn't bother and the average person changes their house WELL before the payback period becomes effective. There is also the issue of how long the invertors and lithium ion batteries last, a rather awkward thing that the companies installing solar rather "conveniently" don't bother telling their customers about.

[GTM 3442]

For battery technology, the Chinese are making some big investments in various forms and variations of vanadium redox technology.

[stoploss]

I have along history ,successfully, in the Industry. Reformed it twice, and think the present EPR is a masterful political document which does not address the main problems in the industry.

Max Bradford is it ?

[iceman]

You've "conveniently"? over looked the fact included in the retail price is about 9 cents per kw/hr charged by Transpower for transmission charges.
The only people I know that are putting in solar are the very wealthy. Joe average simply cannot afford the up front capex and if they borrow the money the payback is so long most people wouldn't bother and the average person changes their house WELL before the payback period becomes effective. There is also the issue of how long the invertors and lithium ion batteries last, a rather awkward thing that the companies installing solar rather "conveniently" don't bother telling their customers about.

Well put Beagle and my thoughts exactly. Joe average is many years away from installing solar, wind or any alternative power generation to supply their homes. Ditto for any large scale solar generation. I installed solar panels on my home 2 years ago and have a hybrid vehicle, so am comfortable with the investment, but mainly a feel good result though. I suspect economically I would have been better of putting the money into GNE shares. No doubt this will happen more in the future but I think we are a long way away from this in NZ, where much of our generation is not so unfriendly to the environment with 2/3 non CO2 emitting.

[Lewylewylewy]

Most folk wouldn't pay effectively years up front for energy, even if the price of the tech drops. The only way i can see that happening is through some government green policy, which is unlikely if power companies use green power.

Maybe if the greens got into power on the back of an economically successful year with lots of funds in the coffers, it could happen... but my guess is unlikely at the moment. I like the discussion though.

[horus1]

I have 5Kw of solar and going to 15. Pay back on the 5 has been 5years but we did it ourselves mostly. I agree have to have the capital but I have that . The batteries are getting cheaper. You are correct the Govt is biased since they own 50% of the generators and that is why the market has not been straightened out. There have been two studies showing the generators are making excessive profits buty they get ignored.
Stop loss I reformed in 87/88 and in 93-96 .Not Bradford.

[iceman]

I have 5Kw of solar and going to 15. Pay back on the 5 has been 5years but we did it ourselves mostly. I agree have to have the capital but I have that . The batteries are getting cheaper. You are correct the Govt is biased since they own 50% of the generators and that is why the market has not been straightened out. There have been two studies showing the generators are making excessive profits buty they get ignored.
Stop loss I reformed in 87/88 and in 93-96 .Not Bradford.

May I ask why you are going to 15 Kw ? Are you efficiently going to store your production or do you use it all during the day ? I've looked into increasing mine but would achieve little other than selling more production cheaply back to the grid, which is not economical. Have also been looking at whether it is an option to get a couple of neighbours to join the same retailer and for them to buy my excess production at an agreed price, which would be significantly less than what they pay now and I would get more than just selling it back to the grid. If we can negotiate this, I'd quickly increase my capacity !