GNE - Genesis Energy

[Bobdn]

Excellent. Jantar, I always appreciate your comments in Stuff articles on the industry (assuming there's only one Jantar). They bring much needed sanity into the debate. There's another commentator called "Mathclub" who is good too. I try not read comments on articles about companies I'm invested in (it's not great for my blood pressure) but I'm drawn to them like a moth to a flame.

In other news:

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c...y-genesis.html

[blackcap]

Thanks for the link Jantar. May have to light the fire, grab the bean bag, and do some reading today. I see that prices are now in the $400's and its looking very dry in the South.

[fish]

Thanks for the link Jantar. May have to light the fire, grab the bean bag, and do some reading today. I see that prices are now in the $400's and its looking very dry in the South.

So it looks like prices have been high and will stay high for some time.
So much for being able to get rid of coal .

[blackcap]

So it looks like prices have been high and will stay high for some time.
So much for being able to get rid of coal .

I think as time goes on we (NZ) are going to rely more and more on coal. Coal whether you like it or not is here to stay.

[mcdongle]

Just been reading about this on another site..


Lakes are below average despite the recent events, add to that due to a reduced snowpack from last years droughts means that spring inflows are an unknown quantity. Until that arrives there is a real fear of shortages in the market, which isn't helped by two significant gas issues. The first is that Pohokura currently has an issue and whilst it normally supplies around 40% of NZ's gas isn't producing anything. This has meant that we have no spare gas capacity and gas thermal generators in the North Island are constrained by supply. Add to that there is a buckle in one of the other pipelines which is putting additional fear of loss of supply has meant there is no gas spot market (no-one is offering supply.)

Essentially, the high prices are being driven by lower than average hydro storage in the South island and some significant concerns around security of supply of gas in the North Island. to the extent that Genesis is already running the two certified Rankine units exclusively on coal and holding back e3p generation due to the issues around gas supply.

[horus1]

And also the fourth potline at Tiwai has just come on at about 5.5c/Kwhr

[Dassets]

As Jantar said Pohokura is off line due to valve issues. That is 1/3 gas out of market. Wind forecast is poor next 10 days. El nino is here so can be short of rain. Wholesale price is through the roof. ASX Dec qtr contract is over 2 x the previous high over the last 8 years for that contract. March qtr is a little over previous highs. Wholesale spot has been 4 to 20 times last year.

[fish]

And also the fourth potline at Tiwai has just come on at about 5.5c/Kwhr

from 2016-:Genesis Energy will keep its two coal and gas-fired units at Huntly Power Station operating until 2022, having previously said they'd be closed by 2018, after wringing a high price from other electricity generators who wanted to keep them as back-up.

The Auckland-based power company has signed a 'swaption' contract with Meridian Energy "and other market participants", according to a statement from Meridian chief executive Mark Binns. Meridian, but no detail of the trigger price for firing up Huntly has been given and there is no indication of how much of up to 150 Megawatts of additional capacity is committed to Meridian versus other generators.

Meridian only owns wind and hydro power stations and appears to have led the charge to pay to have the two 250 megawatt Huntly 'Rankine' units on standby for any periods of low inflows to hydro lakes that could compromise security of electricity supply. The contract will make up to 100MW available year-round and an additional 50MW in the winter months, from April to the end of October."

Am I correct in deducing from this that Meridian could be making massive losses from this ?

[horus1]

One of the notices to the Stock exchange on the hadges had a price of 5.2c/Kwhr . All major generators have done hedges. Someone is losing . As a Flick customer so amI

[Jantar]

Just been reading about this on another site..


Lakes are below average despite the recent events, add to that due to a reduced snowpack from last years droughts means that spring inflows are an unknown quantity. ....

I would question the comment on lack of snow. Last year's drought was broken in February and the winter snows started in May, which is earlier than normal. All the western ski fields are reporting much more snow than normal, and our indications are that it is the most snow seen for over a decade. The eastern ranges have less snow than normal, but that snow when it melts is just run-off and doesn't end up in the lakes.