GNE - Genesis Energy

[Beagle]

investor roadshow in australia

Genesis Energy will be meetings with investors this week in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332460

bound to drum up more shareholders to invest

I've had the time to have a good look through that now and agree 100% that its looks solid and attractive. I think its quite likely we've seen the end of the share price starting with a 2.
As you quite rightly point out the roll off of those legacy gas contracts will confer enduring and quite substantial benefits to GNE going forward. Its been very very dry so I expect this years EBITDAF to be right at the top end of guidance.

[bull....]

dont forget the RBNZ interest rate announcement tomorrow , a dovish tone is expected esp with everything starting to turn down. nz is not imune to down turns in china and aus. aus credit swaps went negative yesterday a huge red warning of slowdown. so rba cut will pile the pressure on rbnz to stop the aus/ nzd going over 1 for 1.
all in all low rates are going lower just how quick is the question not if

[Beagle]

Agreed. I am certain we are headed down to ultra low interest rates for probably the next decade.
Assuming a ~ 2 % increase in the final divvy for FY19 to 8.8 cps, total divvies for the year will be 8.45 + 8.8 = 17.25 cps. They are 80% imputed so this translates to 17.25 / 0.7822 = 22.053 cps gross. At $3.00 that's a gross yield of 7.35% which I think its highly attractive for a gentailier in an ultra low interest rate environment.
They still trade cum the 8.45 cps divvy so I think buying up to an including that inclusive dividend to $3.085 is compelling buying cum dividend.
They go ex divvy next week.

[bull....]

Agreed. I am certain we are headed down to ultra low interest rates for probably the next decade.
Assuming a ~ 2 % increase in the final divvy for FY19 to 8.8 cps, total divvies for the year will be 8.45 + 8.8 = 17.25 cps. They are 80% imputed so this translates to 17.25 / 0.7822 = 22.053 cps gross. At $3.00 that's a gross yield of 7.35% which I think its highly attractive for a gentailier in an ultra low interest rate environment.
They still trade cum the 8.45 cps divvy so I think buying up to an including that inclusive dividend to $3.085 is compelling buying cum dividend.
They go ex divvy next week.

totally agree wicked div and too think other gentailers yield under 4% and as you say gne at 7.35% even with price over 3 dollars. i still think at some stage gne will play catchup as people switch to gne from others because of the superior yield. so could argue its very attractive even at much higher prices based on this.

[Beagle]

Yes in the medium term I expect this to rerate to $3.40 which would still give a 6.5% gross return.

[bull....]

Yes in the medium term I expect this to rerate to $3.40 which would still give a 6.5% gross return.

investor roadshow this week in aus will help, im thinking gne is not widely known or appreciated over there

[Beagle]

investor roadshow this week in aus will help, im thinking gne is not widely known or appreciated over there

I agree and the fact that it is listed there and was only just very recently added to the all ordinaries index means the roadshow is very well timed.

[bull....]

The Reserve Bank has kept its official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 1.75 per cent, as expected, but said the next move is likely to be down.

div on this looks even more yummy now

Traders now see a rate reduction by November as almost certain, according to swaps data, up from 48 percent earlier Wednesday

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

[Beagle]

Locked and loaded with heaps

[bull....]

Locked and loaded with heaps

me too , income becomes very important now in a low growth and very low interest rate environment