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  1. #2721
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Has the market been seduced by the "green claims" of the others while GNE provides the backstop via its nasty gas/coal burning Huntly station?
    funny thing is if castle hill which gne own is developed it will be the biggest wind farm in nz and one of the bigger power sites supplying green power to nz , so maybe in context of your thoughts maybe people dont realise this.

    est cost to build 1.6 billion , with int rates falling all the time they may soon have the banks paying them too build it lol
    Last edited by bull....; 04-09-2019 at 01:32 PM.
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  2. #2722
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    genesis turn to play catch up lagging 8% on the others for the rally? with a better yield

    oh i forgot to mention 3.50 - 3.55 was big resistance so if we hold above should rally hard ... cross fingers
    Last edited by bull....; 05-09-2019 at 11:12 AM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #2723
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    historical spread has been between gne and mcy/mel around $1 - 1.30 so im guessing gne needs to be around $4 - 4.2 to keep the spread similar. opportunity?
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #2724
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    historical spread has been between gne and mcy/mel around $1 - 1.30 so im guessing gne needs to be around $4 - 4.2 to keep the spread similar. opportunity?
    Oil price has fallen from somewhere north of $US80/barrel to $US58/barrel over the last twelve months. Not quite as bad a fall in NZD terms, but the fall is still substantial. Not a good outlook for the next round of Genesis oil production hedging?

    SNOOPY
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  5. #2725
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Oil price has fallen from somewhere north of $US80/barrel to $US58/barrel over the last twelve months. Not quite as bad a fall in NZD terms, but the fall is still substantial. Not a good outlook for the next round of Genesis oil production hedging?

    SNOOPY
    depends on the time frame of the derivative . doesnt it? oil revenue is such a small % of total revenue and even there sensitivity analysis suggests a move of +10%/- 10% is hardly material in the price of oil.

    They have even said in there outlook for 2020 that kupe production will be less next yr and wont ramp up again until mid 2021 when the inlet compression project is finished and yet they still had a small uplift in guidance for 2020. so I think reduced kupe production and profit impact has been well telegraphed for next year.

    I see tlt has updated on the waverly project going ahead based on there numbers to build the 133mw wind farm suggests the castle hill wind project could be built for around 1.6 billion at borrowing costs less than 3% possible. think if the demand is there.
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  6. #2726
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    historical spread has been between gne and mcy/mel around $1 - 1.30 so im guessing gne needs to be around $4 - 4.2 to keep the spread similar. opportunity?
    Probably is. GNE definitely lagged the others in recent times.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2727
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Probably is. GNE definitely lagged the others in recent times.
    looks like the mel,mcy,cen are falling more now to close the spread
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  8. #2728
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    looks like the mel,mcy,cen are falling more now to close the spread
    Think market in pause mode until RBNZ decision which is last week of this month.

  9. #2729
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    looks like the mel,mcy,cen are falling more now to close the spread
    All a good hold in this environment of the lowest interest rates in 100 years...just blowing off a little bit of steam at present.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #2730
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    Quick back of the envelope calculation at $3.15 shows 7% Gross yield.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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