GNE - Genesis Energy

[Dassets]

Largest pumped storage plants in operation and development
POWERHYDROPUMPED STORAGE

By Carrieann Stocks 13 May 2020

Here is my reference. Other ref material agrees may be a term issue. Even if wrong the "dream" is over 200 x the scheme you quote. Ingula cost USD$3.5 billion. Took 12 year from construction start 2005 to complete. Who knows how long design took. It can produce 15.8 hrs of 1333 mwh. What I would be interested in is the time it took to pump that water. I assume that it takes longer than 15.8 hours to back go up or they have pumps that are unbelievable.

[see weed]

Problem some holders just want the divvie not interested in hanging about for next one.

Yes that's right. And some holders want to come back in early next year for the next div. and push sp back up again to $3.30ish plus the 8c div= 50c+ gain on todays sp

[Jantar]

Well, the biggest scheme in the world only stores 3 gWh. .....

I do believe your numbers are rubbish. That 3 GW is installed generation capacity, not storage capapcity. The largest storage in the world is shown below, with Onslow on the top.

Attachment 11940

[Dassets]

Thanks Jantar for clearing that up. So the cost in the table has reduced by 25%. Certainly spending over $3m per mwh of production seems sensible(sarcastic). In effect the Onsliw scheme seems like a hydro dam. The pumped storage is just putting lipstick on the pig.

[Jantar]

Thanks Jantar for clearing that up. So the cost in the table has reduced by 25%. Certainly spending over $3m per mwh of production seems sensible(sarcastic). In effect the Onsliw scheme seems like a hydro dam. The pumped storage is just putting lipstick on the pig.

Onslow would be pure pumped storage, not just a hydro dam. It has very low natural inflows at around 4 cumecs, and so relies on pumped water for its fuel. It is not that the cost in the table has reduced by 25%, but that Labours estimate is 33% more than Majeed calculated in his thesis.

I fail to see where your $3m per mwh of production cost comes from. That is not in the table nor in any calculation I have seen anywhere. The construction cost would work out at $3.3m per MW. That is Construction, not production, and is certainly in line with other hydro projects. The storage construction cost is $0.50 per kw and the actual cost of the water stored would be $40 per MWh or 4 c per unit.

With an OPEX of $12 M per annum the cost of generation would be $62 per MWh or 6.2 c per unit.

[Nor]

Onslow would be pure pumped storage, not just a hydro dam. It has very low natural inflows at around 4 cumecs, and so relies on pumped water for its fuel. It is not that the cost in the table has reduced by 25%, but that Labours estimate is 33% more than Majeed calculated in his thesis.

I fail to see where your $3m per mwh of production cost comes from. That is not in the table nor in any calculation I have seen anywhere. The construction cost would work out at $3.3m per MW. That is Construction, not production, and is certainly in line with other hydro projects. The storage construction cost is $0.50 per kw and the actual cost of the water stored would be $40 per MWh or 4 c per unit.

With an OPEX of $12 M per annum the cost of generation would be $62 per MWh or 6.2 c per unit.

Thank you Jantar for the only side of this conversation that makes any sense.

[see weed]

GNE div yld is over 9% at the moment, so it says on ASB site .

[dibble]

GNE div yld is over 9% at the moment, so it says on ASB site .

tread with care, pretty sure they are based on last 12 months rather than last 2 dividends and year was Oct so looks like 3 dividends included in the yield...??

[Jantar]

tread with care, pretty sure they are based on last 12 months rather than last 2 dividends and year was Oct so looks like 3 dividends included in the yield...??

My spreadsheet gives a yield after tax of 4.5%. That is based on the average of the last 4 dividends.

[Beagle]

17.5 / 0.776 (.776 is the figure to use with 80% imputation) = 22.5515 cps gross forecast dividends for FY21.

I can confirm that something is amiss with the yield showing on direct brooking's website when you look up GNE under detail.
From memory they paid 17.2 cps last year in total and I am working on either 17.4 cps or 17.5 cps for FY21. (Their policy is to put it up a bit each year)
Assuming dividends continue to be imputed to 80% that gives a gross payout of 22.5515 cps in the year ahead as noted above.
At today's closing price of $2.88 that gives a gross yield inclusive of imputation credits of 22.5515 / 288 = 7.83% Gross Yield forecast for FY21.

I think this yield is truly compelling for the moderate risk profile of the company and the environment in which we exist of interest rates at such a low level they are unprecedented in N.Z.'s history so the size of my holding in GNE reflects my belief this is a high conviction hold for yield.