GNE - Genesis Energy

[bull....]

Lower growth concerns worldwide and have seen long bonds plumbing new lows in many countries including N.Z. in recent weeks making safe yield (yield that's highly resistant to a possible recession) even more attractive and I think this rally that's clearly evident for some time (if one looks the any of the gentailiers charts) has plenty of room to run. I see ultra low interest rates for as far as is possibly foreseeable whereas say Sept 2018 the environment was quite different and 10 year rates in the US for example were threatening to break right out towards 3.5% and possibly beyond.

spot on. genesis should be doing there aus investor presentations now. hopefully they get some institutional investors excited

[Beagle]

spot on. genesis should be doing there aus investor presentations now. hopefully they get some institutional investors excited

Its going to be yet another good day. I reckon the afterburner will be lit on AIR as well, (yield is looking very good there at nearly 13% and relatively safe and sustainable for a non utility or REIT) and already locked and loaded with plenty of them too.

[bull....]

Its going to be yet another good day. I reckon the afterburner will be lit on AIR as well, (yield is looking very good there at nearly 13% and relatively safe and sustainable for a non utility or REIT) and already locked and loaded with plenty of them too.

beagle did you get your 3.40 value from simply wall st? they have gne intrinsic value based on future cashflows at $3.44 which is a 9% discount too current price. mine value is slightly higher as i see cashflows sig higher running on from 2021 so my discount is larger.

[Beagle]

beagle did you get your 3.40 value from simply wall st? they have gne intrinsic value based on future cashflows at $3.44 which is a 9% discount too current price. mine value is slightly higher as i see cashflows sig higher running on from 2021 so my discount is larger.

No bull I don't use those guys. In effect I used a simply dividend yield model as these shares trade on yield and I think 6.5% gross yield is a fair near term yield target which based on the projected payout for FY19 gives $3.40. We could see it rerate further later in the year but I think $3.40 is a fair price target for 4-6 months time, (keeping in mind they payout 2 dividends over the next 6 months or so). It could get their sooner and I certainly wouldn't be unhappy with that as I'm fully locked and loaded

[bull....]

No bull I don't use those guys. In effect I used a simply dividend yield model as these shares trade on yield and I think 6.5% gross yield is a fair near term yield target which based on the projected payout for FY19 gives $3.40. We could see it rerate further later in the year but I think $3.40 is a fair price target for 4-6 months time, (keeping in mind they payout 2 dividends over the next 6 months or so). It could get their sooner and I certainly wouldn't be unhappy with that as I'm fully locked and loaded

based on the yield factor i get mcy at 3.84 , mel at 4.77 , cen at 4.81, vct at 4.56 and gne at 5.46 these are not gross divs figures.

positives

future cashflow discount 9% to stock price rated 3.44 , i get higher more like 3.80 based on 2021 figures
div yield relative to peers implies stock price getting too around 3.60 to match peers yield
historical discount to peers since listing is highest ever so implies a narrowing meaning out performance to peers to narrow spread too historical norms

[Beagle]

Good stuff.
Yes EBITDAF growth to ~ $430m in FY21 gives excellent upside to my near term price expectations of $3.40. Should see $4+ sometime next year in anticipation of such a strong result. Heaps of room for this one to run north. Good we're having a good chat about this one. This is our best bit of back and forth banter on ST to date I think.

Beagle - Posted 27 February 2019 MCY thread

I have crunched all the numbers on current share price and taking into account the degree of imputation credits below :-
MCY $3.60 Final divvy FY18 and Interim divvy FY19 total 15.3 cps 100% imputed = 21.25 cps gross = gross yield 5.9%
MEL $3.71 Final divvy FY18 incl special and Interim divvy FY19 incl special, ordinary divvies 86% imputed, special's not, gross divvy total 24.1 6 cps = gross yield 6.5%
GNE $ 2.79 Final divvy FY18 and interim divvy FY19 total 17.05 cps 80% imputed = gross 21.97 cps = gross yield of 7.9%

Interesting to see how these have run over the last month. I identified GNE as the best followed by MEL. Should have run a comprehensive analysis on all the Gentialiers at the time but the lower yields of the others, (except for CEN, hold and recently added) didn't interest me at the time.

I still see GNE as having by far the most room to run north and my bias towards this one is reflected in my portfolio allocation.

[bull....]

Good stuff.
Yes EBITDAF growth to ~ $430m in FY21 gives excellent upside to my near term price expectations of $3.40. Should see $4+ sometime next year in anticipation of such a strong result. Heaps of room for this one to run north. Good we're having a good chat about this one. This is our best bit of back and forth banter on ST to date I think.

Beagle - Posted 27 February 2019 MCY thread


Interesting to see how these have run over the last month. I identified GNE as the best followed by MEL. Should have run a comprehensive analysis on all the Gentialiers at the time but the lower yields of the others, (except for CEN, hold and recently added) didn't interest me at the time.

yes it must be a shock to people to see we are in agreement and not fighting each other lol it must be a good investment

[percy]

yes it must be a shock to people to see we are in agreement and not fighting each other lol it must be a good investment

You two are doing a great job.
I love the both of you [only on this thread]....
I hold GNE and MEL,so am "well positioned." .

[Beagle]

yes it must be a shock to people to see we are in agreement and not fighting each other lol it must be a good investment

Must be THE RIPPER OPPORTUNITY of the year if we're both in total agreement and not arguing

[oldtech]

Move over the "couta theorem" for Retirement Operator pricing, we now have the "Beagle-bull....-BUY" theorem which states:

"If Beagle and bull.... agree on any one share - BUY like there's no tomorrow!"

I'm still trying to get over my shock at something unheard of happening (no, not Beagle and bull.... agreeing) - I dipped my toes in yesterday and the SP has gone UP! This never happens!