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  1. #2381
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    All looks good. Selling undies when the tide goes out is a very lucrative business
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #2382
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    Togs togs togs undies as they say.
    It will be very interesting to see who is wearing what. Given that we couldn't get an electricty generator to get excited about participating in the Waimea Dam you would think there is plenty of it to around.

  3. #2383
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    Somebody is gaming the price here ... I wonder what the objective is?

  4. #2384
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    Default Genesis Overvalued?

    Dated 04/01/2019, Morningstar see Genesis as overvalued, choosing to value it at 2.20. Although reading through their analysis, I think they are looking quite far ahead as they talk about Kupe being largely depleted in a decade, leaving a significant hole of about a quarter of the firm's earnings.

    They do state that they think Management can achieve their target for fiscal 2021 EBITDA of NZD 400 million to NZD 430 million.

    There's also a note that "the firm's balance sheet is stretched" ... hmm.

    For comparison, 4-Traders has a target of 2.45.

  5. #2385
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtech View Post
    Dated 04/01/2019, Morningstar see Genesis as overvalued, choosing to value it at 2.20. Although reading through their analysis, I think they are looking quite far ahead as they talk about Kupe being largely depleted in a decade, leaving a significant hole of about a quarter of the firm's earnings.

    They do state that they think Management can achieve their target for fiscal 2021 EBITDA of NZD 400 million to NZD 430 million.

    There's also a note that "the firm's balance sheet is stretched" ... hmm.

    For comparison, 4-Traders has a target of 2.45.
    All the power companies are currently either very fully priced or overvalued IMO, I value GNE at $2.30.
    Last edited by couta1; 07-01-2019 at 12:42 PM.

  6. #2386
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.marketscreener.com/GENES...957/consensus/
    Average broker valuation is $2.45. Its no surprise to me that people are chasing safe yield in a utility in this bear market and its trading a little above theoretical valuation.
    I own some of this and MEL, both for their attractive safe defensive gross yields.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #2387
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    the ban is good for GNE in the short to medium term at least. I'm thinking in particular of their purchase off NOG of some 30% Kupe from memory.
    And there is a triple top which has given way on the upside!
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #2388
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12190192

    GNE heading up and now at all time high and headed higher in my opinion. Still a good strong yield at the current price and I think those Rankine units will be at full stretch pumping out power at extremely high wholesale prices for many more months yet.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #2389
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12190192

    GNE heading up and now at all time high and headed higher in my opinion. Still a good strong yield at the current price and I think those Rankine units will be at full stretch pumping out power at extremely high wholesale prices for many more months yet.
    Overpriced shares, yeah nah, why try and catch bolted horses better to mount them while they are in the stable.Lol

  10. #2390
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I did, from memory I hopped on the horse when it was ~ $1.80. People want safe yield in this environment mate and the electricity industry's ability to supply looks stretched to me so GNE's diverse generation portfolio will be used to maximum effect going forward in my opinion which raises the prospect of increased dividends in the future.
    Good safe horse to ride for a very long time
    There's still time to buy before the next juicy divvy when it will likely be at or very close to $3.
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-01-2019 at 02:46 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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