sharetrader
Page 255 of 383 FirstFirst ... 155205245251252253254255256257258259265305355 ... LastLast
Results 2,541 to 2,550 of 3828
  1. #2541
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackCross View Post
    Morningstar has a valuation of $2.20 (reduce) on GNE with the main reason being "..At current prices, Genesis is overvalued. Our main concern is that 25%-30% of EBITDA comes from Kupe, which has volatile earnings and will deplete over the next decade or so...."
    Kupe has a limited life. So the correct way to value Genesis is to work out the present day value of the Kupe field, both the oil and gas components, while modelling the declining cashflows and using an appropriate discount rate. Once you have a present day dollar value for Kupe take that off the Genesis share price. I will call the result of that the 'Kupe Subtracted Share Price'. Now work out the non Kupe earnings of Genesis and divide the 'Kupe Subtracted Share Price' buy the 'Non Kupe earnings of Genesis'. You will then get a PE ratio that is the true underlying long term PE ratio appropriate for Genesis. And guess what? It will be rather higher than the PE ratios you see bandied about in the newspaper.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 27-09-2020 at 09:32 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  2. #2542
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Kupe has a limited life. So the correct way to value Genesis is to work out the present day value of the Kupe field, both the oil and gas components, while modelling the declining cashflows and using an appropriate discount rate. Once you have a present day dollar value for Kupe take that off the Genesis share price. I will call the result of that the 'Kupe Subtracted Share Price'. Now work out the non Kupe earnings of Genesis and divided the 'Kupe Subtracted Share Price' buy the 'Non Kupe earnings of Genesis'. You will then get a PE ratio that is the true underlying long term PE ratio appropriate for Genesis. And guess what? It will be rather higher than the PE ratios you see bandied about in the newspaper.

    SNOOPY
    hope your using an appropriate discount rate in your valuation which takes account of declining interest rates forward. makes a big difference to valuation of cashflows.
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #2543
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    173

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Kupe has a limited life. So the correct way to value Genesis is to work out the present day value of the Kupe field, both the oil and gas components, while modelling the declining cashflows and using an appropriate discount rate. Once you have a present day dollar value for Kupe take that off the Genesis share price. I will call the result of that the 'Kupe Subtracted Share Price'. Now work out the non Kupe earnings of Genesis and divided the 'Kupe Subtracted Share Price' buy the 'Non Kupe earnings of Genesis'. You will then get a PE ratio that is the true underlying long term PE ratio appropriate for Genesis. And guess what? It will be rather higher than the PE ratios you see bandied about in the newspaper.

    SNOOPY
    You still read a newspaper?

  4. #2544
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

    IMF Cuts Global Growth Outlook to Lowest Pace Since Crisis

    get your income why you still can
    one step ahead of the herd

  5. #2545
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SilverBack View Post
    You still read a newspaper?
    Interesting you picked up on the 'newspaper' reference. I did pause for thought before I wrote it.

    I could have written
    "It will be rather higher than the PE ratios you see bandied about elsewhere on the internet."

    That wouldn't be true though, because the internet does steer people towards others with similar views. So I am sure there are other places on the internet that uncritically support investment in Genesis Energy for income.

    Or I could have written:

    It will be rather higher than the PE ratios you see 'bandied about on the nzx website'.

    That would mean I was indirectly saying that one web reference was more important than another. Or 'my idea is better than yours'. Whatever the relative merits of two differing web views it doesn't make for a convincing argument.

    A newspaper, without identifying any particular one, is under editorial control and does not publish reactive brain farts. So I used the word 'newspaper' with the idea that what is written in there is double checked and not as wedded to one or other side of the argument. If you figure out a more 21st century way of saying the same thing I am all ears.

    To directly answer your question, I do favour reading the printed word at night, because too much 'blue light' makes it harder to sleep.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 10-04-2019 at 07:05 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  6. #2546
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    Many banks rush to cut term deposit rates, leaving few outliers and fewer options to lock in what were already considered low rates before they are trimmed even lower

    Some of the cuts are substantial, exceeding -30 basis points

    https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...-fewer-options

    get your income while you can
    Last edited by bull....; 12-04-2019 at 06:24 AM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #2547
    On the doghouse
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    9,223

    Default How sustainable are Genesis's Profits (2016 Perspective)?

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    It is now 'normalised result' reconciliation time. I am basing this calculation for the normalised profit of the whole of Genesis Energy on the published "Consolidated Statement of Income", on p31 of AR2016

    EBITDAF $335.3m
    less Emission Unit Trading Net Gain {$21.0m-$15.5m} ($5.5m)
    less One off Gain on value of Turbine Parts ($6.9m)
    Total: Normalised EBITDAF $322.9
    less Net Finance Expense ($2.0m - $65.2m) ($63.2m)
    less Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation ($127.5m)
    Total: NPBT (normalised) $132.2
    less Income Tax @ 28% ($37.0m)
    Total: NPAT (normalised) $95.2

    Note that the declared after tax profit for Genesis Energy over FY2016 was $184.2m. Yet the 'normalised profit' (repeatable profit, pulling out one off events), is only a little more than half this figure!
    The above is an exercise I did on the FY2016 results. It is now two years out of date, and not being a shareholder any longer, I haven't repeated the exercise. However, it was clear at the time that the profitability of Genesis as declared was approximately twice the underlying profitability. That means that in the medium term, I would have expected Genesis's imputed dividends to halve. Of course this hasn't happened (yet). The lack of hydro storage has meant a very profitable time for Huntly. But this kind of weather event is not guaranteed to repeat and large capital expenditure is looming for Genesis if they wish to remain a top four gentailer. The further you look to the future the worse the picture looks.

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Many banks rush to cut term deposit rates, leaving few outliers and fewer options to lock in what were already considered low rates before they are trimmed even lower

    Some of the cuts are substantial, exceeding -30 basis points

    https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...-fewer-options

    get your income while you can
    "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy"
    (Warren Buffett)

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 28-04-2019 at 10:13 AM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #2548
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    The above is an exercise I did on the FY2016 results. It is now two years out of date, and not being a shareholder any longer, I haven't repeated the exercise. However, it was clear at the time that the profitability of Genesis as declared was approximately twice the underlying profitability. That means that in the medium term, I would have expected Genesis's imputed dividends to halve. Of course this hasn't happened (yet). The lack of hydro storage has meant a very profitable time for Huntly. But this kind of weather event is not guaranteed to repeat and large capital expenditure is looming for Genesis if they wish to remain a top four gentailer. The further you look to the future the worse the picture looks.



    "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy"
    (Warren Buffett)

    SNOOPY
    look at the profits you have missed by selling gne on your analysis. as pointed out gne has returned 27%/yr to shareholders since listing according to the posted report. cashflows are are much better way of analysis than npat in my opinion.
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #2549
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Location
    LA/ChCh/AKL
    Posts
    1,231

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    look at the profits you have missed by selling gne on your analysis. as pointed out gne has returned 27%/yr to shareholders since listing according to the posted report. cashflows are are much better way of analysis than npat in my opinion.
    Yes and the share price is on the up..again

  10. #2550
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    474

    Default

    I would not own these shares and I am in the Industry.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •